管道风险管理方法研究

按照管道风险管理的流程分别对管道风险评价、风险控制和决策支持、效能测试和响应进行了论述。针对目前国内管道行业的情况，提出了进行管道风险评价的有效方法及维护措施。着重介绍了国外管道风险可接受标准的情况，作为国内制定管道风险评价标准的参考。     

A Bayesian approach to the multivariate Behrens-Fisher problem under the assumption of proportional covariance matrices

Summary Two independent random samples of sizesN ₁ andN ₂ from multivariate normal populationsN _p (θ₁,∑₁) andN _p (θ₂,∑₂) are considered. Under the null hypothesisH ₀: θ₁=θ₂, a single θ is generated from aN _p(μ, Σ) prior distribution, while underH ₁: θ₁≠θ₂ two means are generated from the exchangeable priorN _p(μ,σ). In both cases Σ will be assumed to have a vague prior distribution. For a simple covariance structure, the Bayes factorB and minimum Bayes factor in favour of the null hypotheses is derived. The Bayes risk for each hypothesis is derived and a strategy is discussed for using the Bayes factor and Bayes risks to test the hypothesis.     

Hydrocarbon exploration risk evaluation through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques

The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental component of the decision process related to the exploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sensitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geometric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncertainty. The geometric uncertainty evaluation makes use of geostatistical techniques that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, together with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure probability map, the drainage area probability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap-filling scenarios.     

Economic Model to Optimize Underground Utility Protection

The need for better protecting our vital infrastructure from being damaged or destroyed has received increased attention since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The tragedy of having thousands of innocent people die before the eyes of an entire nation awakened people to the reality of “managed” attacks of unthinkable magnitudes. However, tragedies of a smaller scale are a daily occurrence but accepted as “collateral damage” of work in an unsafe environment. This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis to address the question of how much money should be spent in protecting underground utilities from damage. During the study of an actual incident it was found that the total costs of such accidents are vastly underreported because only costs for emergency responses and repair are tallied up. This paper makes the case that a comprehensive approach for assessing the total economic impact of such incidents on the public, business, and government is the critical stepping stone to a mathematical optimization of expenditure for damage prevention. In addition, the reader will quickly realize that the use of the presented optimization model provides theoretical underpinning for the engineering profession in its effort to better protect our critical infrastructure from terrorist attacks.     

Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety

The engineering and management of human safety is an important societal objective that includes extensive efforts by governments, both legislative and administrative, to enhance the health and safety of the public. Although the achievement of safety goals depend primarily on individuals and organizations responsible for safety, much support is drawn from expertise in diverse scientific and engineering disciplines. The activities range from structural safety (dams, tunnels, bridges to tall buildings) to safe operation of hazardous industrial installations (energy generation facilities, LNG terminals, petrochemical plants) to transportation systems (airline, rail, car safety) to technologies designed to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. All these activities are crucially concerned with risk: with the likelihood and the probable effects of various measures on life and health. We have developed a unified rationale and a clear basis for effective strategic management of risk across diverse sectors. Safety is an important objective in society but it is not the only one. The allocation of society's resources devoted to safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that can be expended to extend life. The paper presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. The paper provides an intuitive reformulation of the LQI as equivalent to a valid utility function that is consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is further refined to consider the issues of discounting of life years, competing background risks, and population age and mortality distribution. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay, which is an acceptable level of public expenditure in exchange for a reduction in the risk of death that results in improved life-quality.     

Risk Allocation and Risk Handling of Highway Projects in Taiwan

Risks always exist in construction projects and often cause schedule delay or cost overrun. Risk management is a key issue in project management. The first step of risk management is risk identification. It includes the recognition of potential risk event conditions in the project and the clarification of risk responsibilities. We conducted multiple-case studies using a systematic analytical procedure to identify risks in highway projects in Taiwan, to recognize risk allocation by contract clauses, and to analyze the influence of risk allocation on the contractor’s risk handling strategies. The results show that the owner allocates risks by stipulating specific contract clauses into five kinds of risk allocation conditions. If a risk is more controllable by the contractor, the owner has a greater tendency to allocate the risk to the contractor. Risk allocation determines which kinds of risks the contractor would take and influences the contractor’s risk handling decisions. The analysis furthermore indicates that, if the probability of a certain risk event condition is uncontrollable, then with the increasing possibility of taking the risk, the contractor’s tendency of risk handling changes from actively transferring the risk to passively retaining the risk. In contrast, if a risk is controllable and certainly allocated to the contractor, the contractor tends to take the initiative to reduce the impact caused by the risk event rather than retain the risk.     

HSE管理体系认证审核的要点

企业所建立的HSE管理体系已运行多年,大多满足认证的条件,HSE体系认证是体系运行的重要环节,也是体系运行绩效的肯定。审核时要面对大量的体系文件和作业记录,因此把握住审核要点会起到事半功倍的效果。     

Determination of the total concentration and speciation of Al(III) in tea infusions

The aluminium species in different tea infusions were investigated, by determining their stability constants and concentration. This was done for some particular samples using a simple experimental method based on the sorption of aluminium on the strongly sorbing resin Chelex 100, by a batch procedure. From the thermodynamic information obtained it is possible to calculate the concentration of the different species, and in particular that of the free metal ion, which is very important for evaluating the adsorption of aluminium on biological membranes. It was found that aluminium in the tea infusions here considered is present at high total concentration, approximately 0.1 mM, but mainly linked to strong complexes, for instance with side reaction coefficient higher than 10(5.11) at pH 3.95 in one case (tea 1). This could be the reason for the low toxicity of aluminium in tea. These strong complexes were not dissociated even in the presence of Chelex 100. In this case only a limiting value of the reaction coefficient could be evaluated. The presence of the very strong complexes was found in all the tea sample here considered. In two of the considered samples (one black and one green tea) a part of Al(III) was linked to less strong complexes, for example with a reaction coefficient 10(4.14) (tea 2, pH 4.20). The presence in the considered tea infusions of other substances able to complex aluminium was also detected, by the well known ligand titration procedure, at concentration ranging from 0.65 to 3.37 mM in three tea infusions, and at somewhat higher concentration in the case of the ready drink, which was also considered for comparison.     

Tributary use and large-scale movements of grass carp in Lake Erie

Infrequent captures of invasive, non-native grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) have occurred in Lake Erie over the last 30+ years, with recent evidence suggesting wild reproduction in the lake’s western basin (WB) is occurring. Information on grass carp movements in the Laurentian Great Lakes is lacking, but an improved understanding of large-scale movements and potential areas of aggregation will help inform control strategies and risk assessment if grass carp spread to other parts of Lake Erie and other Great Lakes. Twenty-three grass carp captured in Lake Erie’s WB were implanted with acoustic transmitters and released. Movements were monitored with acoustic receivers deployed throughout Lake Erie and elsewhere in the Great Lakes. Grass carp dispersed up to 236 km, with approximately 25% of fish dispersing greater than 100 km from their release location. Mean daily movements ranged from <0.01 to 2.49 km/day, with the highest daily averages occurring in the spring and summer. The Sandusky, Detroit, and Maumee Rivers, and Plum Creek were the most heavily used WB tributaries. Seventeen percent of grass carp moved into Lake Erie’s central or eastern basins, although all fish eventually returned to the WB. One fish emigrated from Lake Erie through the Huron-Erie Corridor and into Lake Huron. Based on our results, past assessments may have underestimated the potential for grass carp to spread in the Great Lakes. We recommend focusing grass carp control efforts on Sandusky River and Plum Creek given their high use by tagged fish, and secondarily on Maumee and Detroit Rivers.     

支持向量机及其在径流预测中的应用

给出了支持向量机方法(SVM)的思路、特点及关键之处,探讨了SVM在径流预测中的可能性,并与基于遗传算法的门限回归模型(TR) 进行了对比分析。径流预测实例分析表明,在拟合阶段,SVM模型要好于TR模型;在预留检验阶段,SVM模型与TR模型接近。同时SVM模型适合于小样本情况且能达到全局最优。SVM模型用于径流预测是可行的、优越的。