Burned area forecasting using past burned area records and Southern Oscillation Index for tropical Africa (1981-1999)

An 18-year time series of monthly NOAA-AVHRR Pathfinder Land burned area was analyzed for the region of tropical Africa, from July 1981 to June 1999. The transition period between NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 platforms from July 1993 to June 1995 was not included due to missing and outlier data. Stability of the time series was addressed for the input variables in the burned area algorithm, reflectance and temperature channels.A Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA) model was developed for forecasting potential burned area. The SARIMA model identified an autoregressive regular term with 1-month lag and an autoregressive 12-month seasonal term with one season (12 months) component. A cross-correlation between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and burned area was statistically significant predictor variable in a time series with 20-month lag. Results show that the SARIMA model with this predictor improved both, fitting and forecasting, residual variance, by 4.1% and 5.6%, respectively, thereby, demonstrating potential relationship between SOI and burned area for the study region. Forecasting was estimated by considering only the first 16 years of the monthly burned area in the time series, from July 1981 to June 1997. The prediction for the following 24 months (from July 1997 to June 1999) was within the 95% confidence level indicating that the forecast was a valid characterization of the modeled process.     

大型硫磺制酸转化系统强化换热器设计方案

对600kt/a、800kt/a硫磺制酸两转两吸系统采用空心环管壳式换热器配置做了方案设计，并提供了相应的换热器设计结果。与采用传统的换热器比较，对于600kt/a硫磺制酸系统采用空心环管式壳换热器可节省36%的换热面积、17%的投资。     

原料摩尔比对硫氧镁胶凝材料性能的影响

研究了氧化镁-硫酸镁摩尔比n(MgO)/n(MgSO4),水-硫酸镁摩尔比n(H2O)/n(MgSO4)对硫氧镁胶凝材料性能的影响及其微观机理.结果表明:固定n(H2O)/n(MgSO4)为19∶1,n(MgO)/n(MgSO4)为14∶1时硫氧镁胶凝材料力学性能最优;n(MgO)/n(MgSO4)超过14∶1后,硫氧镁胶硬化浆体中剩余MgO和Mg(OH)2的含量会增大,使硬化结构疏松,从而降低其力学性能;固定n(MgO)/n(MgSO4)为14∶1时,n(H2O)/n(MgSO4)的增大会延缓硬化硫氧镁浆体中碱式硫酸镁相的生成,造成微观结构中产生大量孔隙,从而导致其力学性能下降.     

Evaluation mass fraction burned obtained from the ion current signal fuelled with hydrogen/carbon dioxide and natural gas

The mass fraction burned (MFB) of the gas mixture in combustion process as the function of the combustion duration time, reflects the percentage of fuel consumed at the every moment in the combustion process, and is an important factor for analysing of the fuel combustion performance, and it has high engineering value for evaluating engine design parameters and operating performance and for improving the combustion process in-cylinder combustion process. The ion current signal directly originated from the fuel combustion process in the cylinder, and contained much information about the combustion process; the MFB of fuel in combustion process can be obtained based on the correlation between the MFB and ion current signal. In this paper, the ion current method is constructed to calculate the MFB of fuel in combustion process under different initial conditions (initial pressure from 1 bar to 3 bar, equivalence ratio from 0.8 to 1.2, hydrogen mass fraction from 0% to 10%, and CO₂ dilution ratio from 0% to 10%), the method based on the waveform parameters of ion current signal for obtaining the efficiency factor and the form factor of Wiebe function, and further to slove the mass fraction burned of combustion process. The mass fraction burned is obtained through ion current method reduced assumptions error and improved the calculation accuracy compared with the well-known Rassweiler–Withrow method, and the ion current method has an advantage that not requires an high-cost sensor and some rather complex measuring instruments. The ion current method is a simple but powerful calculation model that provide a new technical path for analysing and online obtaining the MFB of fuel in combustion process.     

稠油油藏火驱前后储集层变化定量表征——以辽河油田高3-6-18井为例

火驱是稠油油藏继蒸汽吞吐后提高采收率的技术之一。储集层是决定火驱开发效果的根本因素,而温度是影响火驱储集层变化的主要因素。以辽河油田高3-6-18井为例,通过模拟实验,得到火驱过程中不同阶段的样品,分析了火驱前后储集层的变化,建立了研究区火驱过程中储集层变化模式。研究表明：结焦带的储集层物性较差,Fe（OH）₃沉淀物、CaCO₃沉淀物和沥青质沉积堵塞孔喉,长石向黏土矿物转化,同时生成大量的硅质胶结物,破坏了粒间孔与粒内溶孔,使孔隙度和渗透率降低,物性变差;燃烧带和已燃带的储集层物性较好,Fe（OH）₃和CaCO₃沉淀物分解、沥青质沉积的裂解,使孔喉增大,黏土矿物的烧结作用使高岭石向蒙脱石、伊利石转化,同时存在蒙脱石向伊利石的转化,使以黏土矿物为主的粒间填隙物发生不同程度的体积收缩,颗粒和填隙物之间产生裂缝,并随温度升高,裂缝会明显加宽,孔喉增大且连通性变好,孔隙度与渗透率升高。     

燃煤可吸入颗粒物声波团聚效果的实验研究和数值分析

1引言我国是燃煤大国,每年燃煤产生的一次和二次颗粒物数量巨大。排放到空气中的颗粒物不仅降低了大气的能见度,影响环境和气候,而且危害人体健康,使致病率和死亡率上升。可吸入颗粒物(<10μm)是目前我国城市大气环境的主要污染物,尤其是空气动力学直径小于2.5μm的颗粒物(PM2.     

德国污泥处置技术的分析与研究

分析德国的污泥处置技术,旨在对我国的污泥处置方式进行改进．德国采用的污泥处理技术为：污泥消化发酵产甲烷气用于发电;消化后的污泥,利用垃圾焚烧厂烟气废热干燥,干燥的污泥颗粒作为燃料用于发电厂或水泥厂,或直接作为燃料应用于发电厂．但是,在甲烷气进入发电机前,首先必须对其采用活性炭吸附技术净化,净化后可保证含Si有机物质量分数小于0．6mg／L;不然,该物质将对发电机正常运行造成危害．研究表明,德国技术在我国的应用是可行的、实用的．     

不同开采条件下露天矿火烧区边坡参数优化研究

针对弃采高变质煤和全煤层开采条件下火烧区边坡不稳定的问题,以别斯库都克露天煤矿KT3剖面为例,对边坡参数进行优化分析,采取不同的边坡参数调整方案后,进行边坡参数修正后的稳定分析,计算结果表明边坡稳定系数达到安全储备系数的要求,研究结果为露天煤矿安全开采和边坡综合治理提供科学指导。     

美拉德反应制备炭烧生蚝粉末香精的研究

以自制鲜蚝酶解液为主要原料,通过美拉德反应制备炭烧生蚝风味液,喷雾干燥制得炭烧生蚝粉末香精。采用单因素实验和正交实验对美拉德反应的条件进行优化,确定了反应的最佳条件为:鲜蚝酶解液(自制)100g,酵母精膏10g,生抽酱油5g,甘氨酸0.5g,L-亮氨酸0.2g,大蒜精油0.01g,L-半胱氨酸1g,D-木糖0.5g,反应初始pH为6.5,反应温度为100℃,反应时间为100min。     

150 t转炉双渣冶炼技术的工艺实践

简要介绍了唐钢150 t转炉双渣冶炼技术工艺试验的研究分析,结合不同吹炼时期冶炼特点,确立了操作控制的关键措施,对倒炉温度、碱度、炉渣中的FeO和MgO含量及熔渣流动性等因素的合理控制,是取得良好脱磷效果的重要保证,运用控制轻烧白云石加入造渣的双渣生产试验使唐钢取得了良好的经济效益。