Geothermal energy utilization trends from a technological paradigm perspective

The use of geothermal energy and its associated technologies has been increasing worldwide. However, there has been little paradigmatic research conducted in this area. This paper proposes a systematic methodology to research the development trends for the sustainable development of geothermal energy. A novel data analysis system was created to research the geothermal energy utilization trends, and a technological paradigm theory was adopted to explain the technological changes. A diffusion velocity model was used to simulate and forecast the geothermal power generation development in the diffusion phase. Simulation results showed that the development of installed capacity for geothermal generation had a strong inertia force along with the S-curve. Power generation from geothermal power sources reached a peak in 2008 and is estimated to be saturated by 2030. Geothermal energy technologies in hybrid power systems based on other renewable energy sources look to be more promising in the future.     

渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测

渤海湾盆地的石油地质储量发现过程具有明显的渐进性、阶段性和长期性，石油产量的增长也具有一定的起伏性，用一个周期的单旋回哈伯特模型难以预测其发展趋势。通过分析渤海湾盆地的勘探开发历程，结合新一轮常规油气资源评价的结果，分别采用4个和3个哈伯特旋回拟合石油地质储量发现和产量增长曲线。预测结果显示，2005-2015年渤海湾盆地处于石油地质储量发现高峰期，2015年左右其石油产量达到高峰，之后处于下降趋势。实践证明，利用多旋回哈伯特模型对具有“多峰”特征的石油地质储量和产量的未来趋势进行预测是一种有效的方法。     

Logistic模型的改进及在油藏可采储量预测中的应用

为了更准确地预测油气藏未来的经济可采储量，依据油气藏随开发必然要经历产量递减和生产收支平衡的实际。利用Logistic模型中技术可采储量、产量与时间的相互关系，经推导和改进后，再结合当前经济技术条件下的废弃产油量，预测油气藏的有效生产时间及其经济可呆储量。实践证实，改进后的Logistic模型预测结果更符合油气藏的生产实际，能为油气藏的储量管理提供可靠的依据。     

濮城油田濮67块低渗凝析难动用气藏挖潜技术研究

濮67块具有埋藏深、物性条件差、储量难动用程度低等特点，目前气藏采出程度很低，开发效果差。通过对濮67块天然气储量再认识，落实了该块储量；通过对濮67块各砂组剩余天然气分布规律的研究，明确了剩余气的下步挖潜方向；并开展了配套的剩余天然气挖潜技术研究，通过在生产中应用，取得了较好的增产效果，提高了气藏的采收率。     

On-line corrosion monitoring in geothermal district heating systems. II. Localized corrosion

Corrosion monitoring in district heating systems has traditionally been performed by using off-line methods, such as weight loss. The disadvantage is that the method is very slow, especially in low-corrosive environments, and that it only provides information about the past corrosion (accumulated over period of time). The purpose of the work is to test on-line monitoring methods in geothermal hot water in the district heating system in Reykjavik, Iceland. Geothermal water poses certain problems with regards to corrosion monitoring due to low conductivity, high pH and the presence of sulphide. These conditions make the geothermal environment low corrosive. However, a quality control is needed, especially since the sulphide causes the steel pipes to be more vulnerable towards localized corrosion. The methods used in this study were: linear polarization resistance (LPR), harmonic analysis (HA), electrochemical noise (EN) and zero resistance ammetry (ZRA). The Pitting Factor was measured with EN and showed promising results for measuring-localized corrosion on-line. A crevice corrosion cell also gave good results but had a low lifetime. However, the results of a galvanic corrosion cell (Fe/Cu) proved more difficult to interpret since they were dependent both on the dissolved oxygen and the sulphide level.     

Modeling alternative zoning strategies in forest management

To satisfy public demands for environmental values, forest companies are facing the prospect of a reduction in wood supply and increases in costs. Some Canadian provincial governments have proposed intensifying silviculture in special zones dedicated to timber production as the means for pushing out the forest possibility frontiers. In this paper, we compare the traditional two‐zone land allocation framework which includes ecological reserves and integrated forest management zones with the triad — a three‐zone scheme which adds a zone dedicated to intensive timber production. We compare the solutions of the mixed‐integer linear programs formulated under both land‐allocation frameworks. We explore through sensitivity analysis the conditions under which the triad regime can offset the impact on timber production from increased environmental demands. We show that under the realistic conditions characteristic to Coastal British Columbia, higher environmental demands may be satisfied under the triad regime without increasing the financial burdens on the industry or reducing its wood supply. This occurs, however, only if regulatory constraints in timber production zone are flexible.     

新增探明储量的经济可采储量计算方法

提出了新增探明储量有无经济可采储量的判别方法。在此基础上，通过对立已开发油田技术可采储量经济转化率与油藏空气渗透率的相关关系式和图版，根据储层的空气渗透率，计算新增探明储量的经济转化率和经济可采储量。该方法参数易取，计算简便，对于快速、准确计算新增探明储量的经济可采储量具有重要意义。     

Geothermal reservoir simulation

This paper is intended to be a state of the art review of geothermal reservoir simulation. Its recent application to the modelling of real geothermal reservoirs is described and put in the context of an emerging general approach to reservoir modelling. The use of computer simulation for geothermal well test analysis is described. One of the main recent uses of reservoir simulators has been for conducting numerical experiments aimed at improving the understanding of geothermal reservoir physics. Such studies on fractured reservoirs, the thermal structure of reservoirs and the effects of non-condensable gases and dissolved salts are outlined.     

Sensitivity of generation reserve requirements in deregulated power systems

Since demand for power exhibits great variability the amount of firm energy to be purchased to meet real time demand based on forecasts is usually different from the realized demand for that period. The role of generation reserves is to meet the real time fluctuations of power demand. The predictable part of the demand is met through purchases of firm energy. In this paper a model is presented to determine optimal quantities of firm energy and generation reserves to meet random demands. The model is then parameterized introducing a set of factors to perform a sensitivity study. A full factorial experiment is designed to study the impact of five factors on the response variable (i.e., proportion of generation reserves on the total purchased quantity). An example consisting of 640 simulations corresponding to 2⁵ treatment combinations evaluated over 20 randomly generated mean demands is used to identify significant factors on the response variable. Results from the experiment suggest that generation reserve requirements should be adjusted considering changes in significant factors and in the mean demand over the dispatch interval.     

一种广义水驱特征曲线的建立

广义水驱特征曲线能描述综合含水储量采出程度呈多种不同的凸、S、凹曲线类型。根据油水两相渗流原理，从归一化的油水相对渗透率出发，建立起累积产油、累积产水与综合含水率的积分相关关系，进而建立了累积产油、累积产水与归一化的油水相对渗透率的关系。通过构建积分函数，利用公式形式类比，建立了更一般形式的广义水驱特征曲线。理论分析和实例计算表明，所建立的广义水驱特征曲线与实际数据线性相关性更强，结果更可靠。