A dynamic linear programming approach to market allocation of renewable resources in the italian energy system: The case of solar thermal and biogas technologies

In Italy solar thermal energy and energy from biogas are two possible means of reducing dependence on energy imports. Using a multiperiod LP model (MARKAL) the authors assessed the likely potential of both technologies under various circumstances. The study covered the period 1980–2005, in five segments of five years. It focused only on the subsystem of the energy end-uses which can be substituted for by solar thermal and biogas technologies. The overall non-renewable sources which can be saved in 20 years by these technologies total 450 PJ (1 PJ = 10^{1 5} J) if the fuel prices rise at 0 per cent average annual, 1450 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 4.2 per cent average annual, 1860 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 7.2 per cent average annual and 3780 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 15 per cent average annual. However the most competitive technologies appear to be solar water heaters used mainly in the private and commercial sectors and biogas systems used mainly in the agricultural sector. The study was carried out by APRE under ENEA (formerly CNEN) contract and was intended to serve as an analytical basis for establishing an overall development and demonstration strategy for end-use renewable technologies in Italy.     

A portfolio of powertrains for the UK: An energy systems analysis

There has recently been a concerted effort to commence a transition to fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in Europe. A coalition of companies released an influential McKinsey-coordinated report in 2010, which concluded that FCVs are ready for commercial deployment. Public–private H₂Mobility programmes have subsequently been established across Europe to develop business cases for the introduction of FCVs. In this paper, we examine the conclusions of these studies from an energy systems perspective, using the UK as a case study. Other UK energy system studies have identified only a minor role for FCVs, after 2030, but we reconcile these views by showing that the differences are primarily driven by different data assumptions rather than methodological differences. Some energy system models do not start a transition to FCVs until around 2040 as they do not account for the time normally taken for the diffusion of new powertrains. We show that applying dynamic growth constraints to the UK MARKAL energy system model more realistically represents insights from innovation theory. We conclude that the optimum deployment of FCVs, from an energy systems perspective, is broadly in line with the roadmap developed by UK H₂Mobility and that a transition needs to commence soon if FCVs are to become widespread by 2050.     

Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005–2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO₂ emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of 39–65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5–22.3% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model

China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion had increased with an annual growth rate of 4.36% since 1980, hitting 1 GtC in 2003. The global climate change issue is becoming more and more important and hence to be the fourth challenge for China's future energy development, following energy supply shortages, energy security, and local environmental protection. This paper used three MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) family models, that is, MARKAL, MARKAL-ED (MARKAL with elastic demand), and MARKAL-MACRO, to study China energy system's carbon mitigation strategies and corresponding impacts on the economy. The models’ structures and the economic feedback formulations used in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED are briefly described. The endogenous demands in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED enable them to partly satisfy carbon abatement constraints via energy service demand reductions, and the reduction levels for the 30 demand sectors from these two kinds of models for given carbon emission constraints are presented and compared. The impact of carbon mitigation on social welfare from MARKAL and MARKAL-ED, and on GDP, investment and consumption from MARKAL-MACRO are evaluated. The changes in both final and primary energy mix, changes in technology development, as well as marginal abatement costs for given carbon constraints from the three models, are analyzed.     

MARKAL模型在北京中远期能源发展研究中的应用

MARKAL模型是一个综合能源系统优化模型,在满足给定的能源需求量和污染物排放量限制条件下,确定出使能源系统成本最小化的一次能源供应结构和用能技术结构。本文尝试将MARKAL模型应用于北京市中远期能源系统建设研究,根据北京市未来能源、经济、环境协调发展的要求,进行了几种可能的未来能源系统发展情景分析。研究结果表明,适当安排大气环境质量改善进程可以明显减少清洁能源系统建设成本,而且不影响大气环境质量改善的总体效果。     

An outlook into energy consumption in large scale industries in India: The cases of steel,aluminium and cement

All the growth-oriented sectors in a developing economy consume enormous energy in their production processes. Steel, aluminium and cement are the key manufacturing industries in India which provide inputs to various other sectors such as construction, transportation, power transmission, etc. As a result, their demand is consistently rising. These industries are heavily energy-intensive and use raw materials such as iron ore, coal, electricity, steam, and fuel oil, whose supply can act as severe production constraints over a period of time and can hinder sustainable development. Hence it becomes imperative for these industries to continuously innovate more energy efficient techniques. This paper makes a foray into the energy demand for these industries and explores the potential of any future reduction in their energy consumption. The paper offers a projection scenario for 2001–2031 (based on the MARKAL Modeling exercise for India) for possible catching up in reduction in energy consumptions in these sectors under alternative situations. The analysis suggests the existence of some plausible energy efficiency enhancing techniques in these industries. Exploring these options will definitely ensure cost effectiveness and competitiveness of these three key sectors in the global market.     

Developing strategies for robust energy systems. II: Application to CO2 risk management

One of the most important determinants for the design of the future energy system is whether or not constraints on CO₂ emissions will be imposed. Here, this issue is treated as a decision under uncertainty. Three strategies have been considered: immediate action to adapt to a future emission constraint (Commitment), business as usual (No Hedging), and hedging (Hedging). In the case of hedging, preparations are made outside the energy system, but the energy system itself is allowed to develop according to baseline assumptions until the uncertainty has been resolved. The IEA-MARKAL model has been used to show how efficient and robust the three strategies are under different developments. The development of the Swedish energy system has been studied for two rates of economic growth in combination with three nuclear policies and two CO₂ policies. The value of preparations for meeting a possible restriction on CO₂ emissions, i.e., following either the Commitment or the Hedging strategy, is considerably higher when the energy demand increases rapidly. In the low growth case, the choice of strategy is largely dependent upon the decision maker's estimate of the likelihood of an emission cap. In the high growth case, this likelihood must be considered to be very small in order to choose the No Hedging strategy, even with reinvestments in nuclear capacity beyond 2010.     

Assessment of transport fuel taxation strategies through integration of road transport in an energy system model—the case of Sweden

Road transport is responsible for a large and growing share of CO₂ emissions in most countries. A number of new fuel‐efficient vehicle technologies and renewable transport fuels are possible alternatives to conventional options but their deployment relies strongly on different policy measures. Even though a future higher use of transport biofuels and electric vehicles is likely to increase the interaction between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system (heat, power, etc.), these systems are often analysed separately. In this study, a transport module is developed and integrated into the MARKAL_Nordic energy system model. The transport module describes a range of vehicle technologies and fuel options as well as different paths for conversion of primary energy resources into transport fuels. The integrated model is utilized to analyse the impact of transport fuel tax designs on future cost‐effective fuel and technology choices in the Swedish transportation sector, as well as the consequences of these choices on system costs and CO₂ emissions. The model, which is driven by cost‐minimization, is run to 2050 with various assumptions regarding transport fuel tax levels and tax schemes. The results stress the importance of fuel taxes to accelerate the introduction of fuel‐efficient vehicle technologies such as hybrids and plug‐in hybrids. Tax exemptions can make biofuels an economically favourable choice for vehicle users. However, due to limitations in biomass supply, a too strong policy‐focus on transport biofuels can lead to high system costs in relation to the CO₂ abatement achieved. The modelling performed indicates that the effects caused by linkages between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system can be significant and integrated approaches are thus highly relevant. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Methodologies for representing the road transport sector in energy system models

Energy system models are often used to assess the potential role of hydrogen and electric powertrains for reducing transport CO₂ emissions in the future. In this paper, we review how different energy system models have represented both vehicles and fuel infrastructure in the past and we provide guidelines for their representation in the future. In particular, we identify three key modelling decisions: the degree of car market segmentation, the imposition of market share constraints and the use of lumpy investments to represent infrastructure. We examine each of these decisions in a case study using the UK MARKAL model. While disaggregating the car market principally affects only the transition rate to the optimum mix of technologies, market share constraints can greatly change the optimum mix so should be chosen carefully. In contrast, modelling infrastructure using lumpy investments has little impact on the model results. We identify the development of new methodologies to represent the impact of behavioural change on transport demand as a key challenge for improving energy system models in the future.