组合模型在传染病预测中的应用研究

研究传染病预测问题,由于受到外界因素和人体内部因素共同影响,具有不规则变动和非线性动态特点。传染病发生具有季节性、周期性和非规则等变化特点,单一模型只能预测中部分变化特点,预测误差比较大。为降低传染病预测误差,提出一种组合模型的传染病预测方法。首先分别采用ARIMA和LSSVM模型对传染病发生趋势进行预测,然后将两者预测结果输入到LSSVM重新进行学习,最后得到组合模型的预测结果。采用组合模型对某市乙肝发病率进行仿真。结果表明,组合模型降低了乙肝发病率的预测误差,预测结果更加可靠,为传染病预测工作提供新的技术手段。     

传染性法氏囊病病毒疫苗B87株基因组B节段的克隆和序列分析

目的获得传染性法氏囊病病毒(IBDV)疫苗B87株B节段全长cDNA,并对其序列进行分析,为进一步在分子水平上研究病毒基因组的功能、抗原变异和毒力变异奠定基础。方法使用蛋白酶K和酚/氯仿抽提法提取病毒基因组RNA,用LiCl分级沉淀方法纯化病毒基因组dsRNA,通过RT-PCR一步扩增获得B节段的全长cDNA。将其克隆到pGEM-T载体上,然后测序,并用DNAStar软件进行序列分析。结果测序结果表明,克隆的B87株基因组B节段全长为2827bp,与超强毒参考株UK661和HK46的同源性分别为89.8%和89.3%,与强毒参考株Harbin-1和ZJ2000的同源性分别为90.2%和89.5%;与变异毒株GLS的同源性为97.8%;与弱毒参考株CEF94和Gt株的同源性均为99.8%,与P2株的同源性达100%。结论通过对9株IBDV编码氨基酸序列进行分析、比较,推测B节段上10个独特的氨基酸位点可能与毒力相关。     

Short communication: Effect of pomegranate-residue supplement on Cryptosporidium parvum oocyst shedding in neonatal calves

Cryptosporidium parvum is considered one of the most common enteropathogens, responsible for the high incidence of diarrhea and deleterious implications on immunity and health in neonatal calves. The pomegranate is well known for its health-promoting properties. Two experiments were designed to test the antiparasitical and antidiarrheal effects of concentrated pomegranate extract (CPE) supplement in milk in neonatal Holstein calves. Forty-one calves were randomly divided into control (n = 20) and treatment (n = 21) groups. For the first experiment, the treatment group was supplemented with 3.75% CPE in the daily milk ration, between 3 and 14 d of age, whereas the control group received only milk. Fecal samples were collected between d 5 and 13 to quantify Cryptosporidium oocysts, and the duration and intensity of diarrhea were evaluated. Reduced fecal oocyst count and diarrhea intensity and duration were revealed in the 3.75% CPE calves. No difference was noted in average daily gain between groups. In a second experiment, which was designed to test the effect of a lower CPE concentration (0.6% of daily milk allocation), no effects on fecal oocyst count and average daily gain were observed. However, compared with control, the lower CPE group was characterized by a shorter duration of diarrhea and higher weight gain among males at 14 d of age. These results suggest that the CPE supplement-to-calf milk ratio may potentially alleviate intestinal morbidity caused by Cryptosporidium.     

上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻疾病负担的评估

目的对上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻的疾病负担进行综合评估,为管理部门制定预防和控制诺如病毒感染的措施提供依据。方法结合上海市哨点医院诺如病毒感染性腹泻监测和诺如病毒感染暴发事件报告,采用伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)、发病率、就诊率和住院率等指标对上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻的疾病负担进行评估。结果 2015年上海市感染性腹泻发病人数为483.05万人,其中诺如病毒感染性腹泻的发病人数为123.23万人,住院病例为370人,所产生的疾病负担为2 938.98 DALYs,即0.12 DALYs/千人。结论上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻的疾病负担相对较高,需要加强预防控制。     

Bacterial communities in commercial aircraft high‐efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters assessed by PhyloChip analysis

Abstract  Air travel can rapidly transport infectious diseases globally. To facilitate the design of biosensors for infectious organisms in commercial aircraft, we characterized bacterial diversity in aircraft air. Samples from 61 aircraft high‐efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters were analyzed with a custom microarray of 16S rRNA gene sequences (PhyloChip), representing bacterial lineages. A total of 606 subfamilies from 41 phyla were detected. The most abundant bacterial subfamilies included bacteria associated with humans, especially skin, gastrointestinal and respiratory tracts, and with water and soil habitats. Operational taxonomic units that contain important human pathogens as well as their close, more benign relatives were detected. When compared to 43 samples of urban outdoor air, aircraft samples differed in composition, with higher relative abundance of Firmicutes and Gammaproteobacteria lineages in aircraft samples, and higher relative abundance of Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria lineages in outdoor air samples. In addition, aircraft and outdoor air samples differed in the incidence of taxa containing human pathogens. Overall, these results demonstrate that HEPA filter samples can be used to deeply characterize bacterial diversity in aircraft air and suggest that the presence of close relatives of certain pathogens must be taken into account in probe design for aircraft biosensors.

Practical Implications

A biosensor that could be deployed in commercial aircraft would be required to function at an extremely low false alarm rate, making an understanding of microbial background important. This study reveals a diverse bacterial background present on aircraft, including bacteria closely related to pathogens of public health concern. Furthermore, this aircraft background is different from outdoor air, suggesting different probes may be needed to detect airborne contaminants to achieve minimal false alarm rates. This study also indicates that aircraft HEPA filters could be used with other molecular techniques to further characterize background bacteria and in investigations in the wake of a disease outbreak.

     

人呼吸道合胞病毒的稳定性

目的观察人呼吸道合胞病毒(HRSV)在不同温度保存、冻融和超声波处理的稳定性。方法将HRSVA2株接种于KMB17细胞上适应培养后,收获病毒液,分别置于37、22、4和-20℃条件下保存不同时间,或经冻融和超声波处理后,用微量细胞病变法检测HRSV的感染性滴度,观察其稳定性。结果HRSV在37℃保存,病毒感染性滴度下降很快,第4天时,降至约1.50lgCCID50/ml,5d后降至1.00lgCCID50/ml以下,几乎检测不到;在22℃保存,病毒感染性滴度下降相对缓慢,第14天时比原始滴度降低约3.20lgCCID50/ml;在4℃和-20℃下保存较稳定,分别保存5周和3个月后,病毒感染性滴度下降<0.60lgCCID50/ml。冻融1、2、3次,病毒感染性滴度分别下降1.37、2.55和3.61lgCCID50/ml,冻融4次后,病毒几乎无感染性。超声波处理后,病毒感染性滴度下降很快,处理1次病毒滴度即下降至原始滴度的50%左右,处理2次后,病毒几乎无感染性。结论HRSV不宜在37℃和22℃存放,可短暂保存于4℃,在-20℃可保存较长时间;冻融和超声波处理均对病毒感染性滴度有明显影响。     

Considerations for infectious disease research and practice

As the 21st century unfolds, strategies to prevent and control infectious diseases remain an area of vital interest and concern. The burden of disease, disability, and death caused by infectious diseases is felt around the world in both developed and developing nations. Moreover, the ability of infectious agents to destabilize populations, economies, and governments is strikingly apparent. To an unprecedented degree, infectious disease-related issues are high on the agendas of world leaders, philanthropists, policymakers, and the public. This enhanced focus, combined with recent scientific and technological advances, creates new opportunities and challenges for infectious disease research and practice. This paper examines these issues in the context of three countries: China, India, and the United States.     

An integrated population,economic, and water resource model to address sustainable development questions for Botswana

Abstract:

An integrated population, economic, and water resource model was developed to address sustainable development questions for Botswana. raditionally, water resources planning models have considered the implications of different assumptions of population and economic growth on the sustainability of existing water resources supply; however, this model extends that capability to consider feedbacks from one model component to another. For example, the model has the unique capability to examine implications of changing water‐related diarrhea incidence on the health of the HIV/AIDS population. Investments in water supply and sanitation or in HIV/AIDS medication impact the health and productivity of the population. The water model uses a physically‐based hydrologic rainfall‐runoff model with surface and groundwater components to produce monthly runoff and groundwater recharge at the watershed scale. Botswana is divided into socioeconomic regions, and the water resources infrastructure is characterized by virtual reservoirs in each. The demographic sub‐model is a standard multi‐cohort model that forecasts the population by age, sex, rural or urban residence, education level, and HIV/AIDS status. The economic sub‐model is a computable general equilibrium model with three components: agriculture, non‐agricultural exports, and non‐tradables. The model runs an ensemble of scenarios, including climate change, HIV/AIDS, health, economic, and water conservation scenarios, whose output is probabilistic in nature. The three model components are described, with particular emphasis on the model linkages and the water sub‐component, and results are shown for a variety of scenarios.     

Polymer degradation initiated via infectious behavior

Understanding polymer degradation phenomena is of critical importance for material reliability. A novel dual stage chemiluminescence detection system has been developed and applied to probe for material interaction effects during polymer degradation. Evidence is presented for the first time that in an oxidizing environment a degrading polymer A (in this case polypropylene, PP) is capable of infecting a different polymer B (in this case polybutadiene, HTPB) over a relatively large distance. In the presence of the degrading material A, the thermal degradation of polymer B is observed over a significantly shorter time period. Infectious intermediate volatiles from material A are able to initiate and shorten the degradation processes in material B. This observation documents infectious behavior that will have significant consequences for materials interactions, understanding material degradation processes and long-term aging effects in combined material exposures.