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灰色关联分析法在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
肯特(W.kent Muhlbauer)管道风险评价法是一种半定量风险评价法,但是该方法在我国还处在起步阶段,其理论基础和应用技术都很不完善。为了有效处理评分中存在的主观性和不确定性因素,已经把模糊综合评判法引入到管道风险评价中。但是,传统的相对风险值计算还不够准确,为此介绍了灰色关联分析在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用。通过对影响管道风险的评价指标(因素)体系的综合分析,确定了灰色综合评价的层次结构模型。构建了由第三方破坏指数、腐蚀指数、设计指数、错误指数、介质危险指数5大指标体系构成的管道系统风险综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析与专家打分相结合的方法计算权重。在油气管道半定量风险评价中应用灰色关联分析法,可以使评价结果更准确。 相似文献
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Predictive Maintenance can provide an increase in safety, quality and availability in industrial plants. However, the setting up of a Predictive Maintenance Programme is a strategic decision that until now has lacked analysis of questions related to its setting up, management and control. In this paper, an evaluation system is proposed that carries out the decision making in relation to the feasibility of the setting up. The evaluation system uses a combination of tools belonging to operational research such as: Analytic Hierarchy Process, decision rules and Bayesian tools. This system is a help tool available to the managers of Predictive Maintenance Programmes which can both increase the number of Predictive Maintenance Programmes set up and avoid the failure of these programmes. The Evaluation System has been tested in a petrochemical plant and in a food industry. 相似文献
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基于物元分析和层次分析的选厂综合性能评估 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
利用物元分析法和层次分析法的特点,将物元分析和层次分析法有机的结合起来建立选厂性能综合评估模型,建立的评估模型表明该评估方法能够克服传统方法中参评人员的主观不确定性和认识上的模糊性,可用于选厂有关指标的综合评估。 相似文献
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One of the main problems faced while configuring or reconfiguring manufacturing systems is to rank alternative designs taking into account all the different aspects involved (both tangible and intangible). For this purpose the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a well-known decision making support method that addresses this problem. A major drawback of AHP is that uncertainty in the judgments of the decision makers and the resulting impact on the ranking is not considered. In real situations, however, judgments based on perceived future scenarios are almost always uncertain. To solve this problem in this paper we present the first complete probabilistic extension to the AHP method. The new method provides the decision maker not only with information on the ranking of the alternatives but also the probability that the ranking remains stable even in presence of uncertainty in the judgements. We verified the validity of the new method in a real application developed for the Ferrari racing team. 相似文献
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Scheduling emergency medicine residents (EMRs) is a complex task, which considers a large number of rules (often conflicting) related to various aspects such as limits on the number of consecutive work hours, number of day and night shifts that should be worked by each resident, resident staffing requirements according to seniority levels for the day and night shifts, restrictions on the number of consecutive day and night shifts assigned, vacation periods, weekend off requests, and fair distribution of responsibilities among the residents. Emergency rooms (ERs) are stressful workplaces, and in addition shift work is well-known to be more demanding than regular daytime work. For this reason, preparing schedules that suit the working rules for EMRs is especially important for reducing the negative impact on shift workers physiologically, psychologically, and socially. In this paper, we present a goal programming (GP) model that accommodates both hard and soft constraints for a monthly planning horizon. The hard constraints should be adhered to strictly, whereas the soft constraints can be violated when necessary. The relative importance values of the soft constraints have been computed by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which are used as coefficients of the deviations from the soft constraints in the objective function. The model has been tested in the ER of a major local university hospital. The main conclusions of the study are that problems of realistic size can be solved quickly and the generated schedules have very high qualities compared to the manually prepared schedules, which require a lot of effort and time from the chief resident who is responsible for this duty. 相似文献