基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析

对荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度进行分析研究,为实现区域水资源可持续合理利用提供科学依据。在水资源短缺评价研究中,前期研究成果大多采用常权法确定评价指标,致使评价指标产生状态失衡。将变权理论引入到水资源短缺程度分析中,从而确定评价指标变权重,并结合灰色关联法,构建水资源短缺程度分析的变权灰色关联法模型并加以应用。最终得出荆南三口地区三县的水资源短缺程度均为轻度缺水,其缺水程度排序为:华容县南县安乡县。利用变权灰色关联法计算水资源短缺程度,方法可行,结果合理,满足了评价指标均衡性要求。     

浔江防洪堤对西江中下游洪水的归槽影响

基于河道洪水演算原理,建立符合河流水力特性及其变化规律的边滩滞洪水库调节法流量演算模型、校正因数法水位演算模型,利用实测洪水和防洪堤资料进行归槽或还原演算,综合分析防洪堤对洪水归槽的影响。保护区滞洪容积占次洪水总量9．50％的浔江防洪堤对西江中下游洪水过程的归槽影响大于对洪峰的归槽影响,而且洪水类型和干支流组合不同,影响的程度也不相同：对流量过程、洪峰流量影响的最大归槽流量、最大归槽流量比重分别为3680m^3／s、9．63％,2700m^3／s、5．90％,对水位过程、洪峰水位影响的最大变幅为0．60、0．22m。浔江防洪堤造成的洪水归槽并未显著改变西江中下游洪水特性,干支流洪水遭遇、区间降雨和雨洪重叠仍然是形成西江中下游大洪水的主要因素,西江中下游洪涝频繁是气候和流域环境变化综合影响的结果。     

荆江门弯道近期滩槽演变特点及影响因素分析

三峡水库运用改变了下泄水沙条件,坝下游弯曲河型均呈现“凸冲凹淤”演变规律,以致碍航问题日益突出。为研究弯曲河型滩槽演变特点及其成因,以下荆江河段荆江门弯道为例,利用三峡蓄水后近15 a实测地形资料,采用逻辑推理及统计分析方法分析其影响因素并预测了航道变化趋势。结果表明:三峡工程运用后,凸岸边滩年际间呈持续冲刷趋势,冲刷位置不断下移导致河段展宽引起航道条件恶化;在平滩流量(20 000~25 000 m³/s)持续时间＞15 d的年份,凸岸边滩冲刷后退,反之淤长;冲淤幅度与年均来沙量,尤其细沙(d≤0.125 mm)含量密切相关,基本呈同步变化趋势;荆江一期工程实施后,在当前水沙条件下凸岸边滩会继续受冲,形成枯水双槽,航道条件将恶化。水沙过程的改变是弯曲河型滩槽演变的主要原因,遇大水且来沙量较少的年份,荆江门河段很可能出浅碍航,这可为下荆江弯曲河段航道治理提供一定的参考价值。     

三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水过程水文泥沙分析

为掌握三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水过程中库区水位、流量、含沙量变化过程,通过三峡库区寸滩、清溪场、万县、朱沱（三）水文站实测的水位、流量、含沙量、水面比降资料,分析了蓄水过程中三峡库区沿程水面比降、库区水文站的水位流量关系、含沙量变化、库区冲淤变化等。分析结果为认识掌握三峡水库175 m蓄水后库区水文泥沙的变化规律积累了资料,对探索三峡库区水文泥沙的监测方式和分析研究将具有积极作用。     

荆江河段水沙条件与主流线特征关系研究

荆江河段的主流变化主要表现为弯曲分汊段的主支汉交替及单一弯道段深泓半径的变化,综合考虑两者关系,提出了能描述荆江分汉段及单一弯道段主流线特点的无量纲常数--弯曲特征数r,并针对同一河段分析了汛期平均流量、洪峰变差系数、年输沙量及输沙指数等水沙条件变化与主流线变化的对应关系.结果表明:汛期平均流量较小、水流相对饱和度低、来水来沙过程较为均匀使得滩槽高差较小,横断面向宽浅发展,从而减弱河道对水流的约束,弯曲特征数较小,主流顺直;反之主流向弯曲发展.     

试析学生德育记实考评的做法

本文从思想工作应该“康事实做”出发,讨论如何做好大学生德育纪实考评工作,提出了应该“思想到位”以提高认识,“措施到位”以建立规范,“工作到位”以保证落实。     

荆江段抛石护岸稳定性计算及其影响因素分析北大核心CSCD

针对长江中游荆江段已护岸段的工程水毁问题,本文考虑单个块石起动及整体滑移破坏两种水毁模式,提出了基于力学过程的抛石护岸工程稳定性计算模型。以荆江北门口河段的两个典型断面为例,采用该模型计算了2017年8月—2018年10月水下抛石护岸工程的水毁破坏过程,定量分析了近岸流速、床面冲淤幅度、块石粒径及水下岸坡坡度对抛石护岸坍塌比的影响。结果表明:计算时段内抛石护岸工程总体上处于较稳定的状态,坍塌比均值仅为5%;坍塌比随近岸流速的增加而增加,当平均流速超过一定临界值时,坍塌比急剧增加,且块石团休止角越大,该临界值越大;坍塌比也随河床冲刷深度的增大而增大,且同样在特定冲刷深度下会出现急剧增加的变化趋势;随着块石粒径的增加和水下自然坡度变缓,抛石的坍塌比逐渐减小,且水下坡度缓于1:2.0的抛石护岸工程稳定性较高。     

黄河内蒙古段冰情的自适应神经网络预报

运用数理统计理论的互相关分析方法,对黄河内蒙古段冰情信息时间序列进行分析,筛选出了冰情信息的预报因子,建立了冰情预报的自适应BP神经网络模型。预报结果表明:流凌日期为乙等预报方案,封河日期为甲等预报方案,开河日期为丙等预报方案。     

Effects of age and gender on maximum voluntary range of motion of the upper body joints

The maximum voluntary range of motion (ROM) of the major joints of the upper body was studied in a seated position and compared between young and elderly subjects. A total of 41 subjects (22 young male and female subjects aged 25 to 35 years, 19 elderly male and female subjects aged 65 to 80 years) took part in the experiment. In total, 13 maximum voluntary joint motions were performed by each subject. Age was found to have a non-uniform effect on the ROM of the joints investigated in this study. Its effect on ROM was joint specific and motion specific. The highest loss in ROM was observed in the neck and trunk, especially for neck extension, lateral flexion and axial rotation as well as for trunk lateral flexion and axial rotation. No significant age differences were observed in the elbow and wrist joint ROMs. The effect of gender on joint ROM was much weaker than that of age. Only four among the 26 joint ROMs investigated in this study were significantly different between the two gender groups.     

Prediction of recent bank retreat processes at typical sections in the Jingjiang Reach

The Jingjiang Reach is experiencing continuous channel degradation owing to operation of the Three Gorges Project(TGP)in2003.Significant retreat processes at composite riverbanks have occurred at local sites of this reach,which may influence the stability of the river regime and the effect of existing river training works.Therefore,bank retreat plays a key role in fluvial processes of the Jingjiang Reach,and it is necessary to predict the long-term processes of bank retreat at typical sections in the reach.In this study,various factors influencing bank retreat in the Jingjiang Reach are investigated,based on bank erosion processes at four sections and the corresponding flow and sediment conditions.It is discovered that fluvial erosion intensity is a dominant factor in controlling the processes of bank retreat in the reach,although other factors,such as bank soil properties,can also influence bank retreat.The bankfull width at a section with severe bank erosion since 2002 is defined as being equal to the sum of the bankfull width in 2002 and the accumulated bank retreat distance after 2002.The magnitude of the bankfull width can be expressed as an exponential function of the previous 5-year average fluvial erosion intensity during flood seasons.The accumulated distances of bank retreat at four sections over the period 2002–2012 are predicted using the proposed empirical relationships,with the calculated bank retreat processes agreeing well with observed data.