A comprehensive approach to evaluating watershed models for predicting river flow regimes critical to downstream ecosystem services

Selection of strategies that help reduce riverine inputs requires numerical models that accurately quantify hydrologic processes. While numerous models exist, information on how to evaluate and select the most robust models is limited. Toward this end, we developed a comprehensive approach that helps evaluate watershed models in their ability to simulate flow regimes critical to downstream ecosystem services. We demonstrated the method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model, and Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) applied to the Maumee River Basin (USA). The approach helped in identifying that each model simulated flows within acceptable ranges. However, each was limited in its ability to simulate flows triggered by extreme weather events, owing to algorithms not being optimized for such events and mismatched physiographic watershed conditions. Ultimately, we found HSPF to best predict river flow, whereas SWAT offered the most flexibility for evaluating agricultural management practices.     

朱庄水库流域径流量变化特征及影响因素

利用朱庄区域长系列水文资料,对径流量的年内、年际变化特征及变化趋势进行了分析研究,分析了人类活动影响引起下垫面变化导致径流变化的原因,估算了降水和下垫面变化对径流量的影响量。该区域径流量年内、年际变化较大;多年径流量系列呈减少趋势,尤其从20世纪70年代末以来径流量发生了显著变异;下垫面变化是径流量减少的主要原因。     

基于自适应模糊网络系统的径流序列预测

应用自适应模糊网络系统进行径流序列数据预测 ,并给出此类混沌数据列预测的ANFIS系统结构形式 .自适应模糊网络系统模型充分利用观测数据中的先验信息 ,预测结果精确、可靠 .最后通过实例应用证明该方法的可行性和有效性 .     

Evolution of corrosion products and metal release from Galvalume coatings on steel during short and long-term atmospheric exposures

Non-treated Galvalume (55% Al, 43.4% Zn and 1.6% Si by weight) coatings have been studied through a combination of surface, near surface and bulk analysis after exposure at marine conditions, and for comparison also in an urban test site and in successively more complex short-term laboratory exposures. Slightly polished Galvalume surfaces exhibit dendritic aluminum-rich areas with higher Volta potential compared with interdendritic zinc-rich areas. These effects were not observed on bare as-received surfaces due to the overall presence of aluminum oxide. As a result, preferential corrosion occurred initially in interdendritic areas. The zinc release rate followed the same time-dependence as the surface coverage of zinc-containing phases at the marine exposure condition with zinc predominantly released compared to aluminum. Short term laboratory exposures generated the same main phases as formed at marine conditions. This confirms that the evolution of corrosion products and time dependence of zinc release rates can be explained by the uniform formation of less soluble Al₂O₃, AlOOH and Al(OH)₃ compared to observed zinc-containing phases, e.g. ZnO, zinc hydroxycarbonate and zinc hydroxychloride. The same underlying mechanism is believed to operate also during exposure of Galvalume in the urban site studied.     

1957-2014年信江水沙变化特征分析

利用信江干流3个水文站（上饶站、弋阳站、梅港站）近60年的实测流量、含沙量资料,分析了信江流域年径流、年输沙量的变化特征。结果表明：（1）径流量年际变化较大,1990 s水量异常偏多（+20%）,径流序列存在29年、9年的主周期,但未来径流量表现为明显的随机性;（2）输沙量在1990 s起显著减少,导致水沙双累积曲线发生转折,R/S分析表明未来输沙量继续减少;（3）2000 s径流量偏少（-5豫）是输沙量减小的原因之一,1990~2000年间建成的界牌水库、大坳水库、七星水库等大中型水利工程拦截泥沙,是梅港站2000 s输沙量异常偏少的另一个主要因素。由于流域水土流失治理、水利工程建设等,预计今后梅港站输沙量仍将进一步减少。     

城市小区雨洪利用系统降雨产流规律研究

以北京市某建有雨洪利用系统的楼房小区为例,基于实测数据,对研究区内的降雨量、产流量、回灌量及相应过程进行统计与回归分析,得出老旧居民区雨洪利用系统建成后的降雨-产流、降雨-回灌之间的规律.研究结果可为类似小区雨洪利用系统建设提供技术支持和关键参数.     

安太堡露天矿排土场表层岩土的径流特征与复垦种植

采用针孔或小型人工降雨机，分别模拟山西塞北高原９０～６０ｍｉｎ、６０～４５ｍｉｎ、４５～３０ｍｉｎ、３０～１５ｍｉｎ各时段降水量极大值，探讨大型露天矿排土场各种排土工艺下地表岩土的径流特征，以指导排土工艺和复垦种植。     

Runoff Analysis for a Small Watershed of Tono Area Japan by Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network with Seasonal Data

The rainfall runoff (R-R) process was studied for two small sub-basins having different sizes in a mountainous catchment of Tono area Japan. The runoff and other meterological data have been collected in this catchment for the last 14 years. The major objective of this study was to construct numerical models for these sub-basins to predict runoff after 1/2 and 1 h. The effects of season and the size of the catchment on R-R process were also investigated. The hydrogeological conditions of the catchment were studied prior to the analyses. The data obtained for summer (rainy) and winter (dry) seasons were treated separately in order to study the seasonal effects on the model development. The back propagation artificial neural network technique (BPANN) and the multivariate autoregressive and moving average models (ARMA) were adopted for the analysis. It was found that for very small catchments the seasonal effects are dominant and therefore separate models should be developed for each season to obtain better forecasting estimates. It was also found that the predictions by BPANN models were better than multivariate ARMA models for intense rains having complex R-R relationships in summer. On the other hand, both the modelling techniques yielded almost similar results for smaller rains in winter. It was also found clearly that the accuracy of prediction decreased with the increase of the time period for prediction.     

降雨径流系列的一致性分析

降雨径流关系是否发生变化，即不同时期降雨径流关系有无显著差异是一个生产中迫切需要解决的问题。本文以山西省榆社县云簇水库降雨径流系列为例，进行了降雨径流特性的分析，内容包括降雨径流双累积曲线的特性分析、年径流系数的变化过程分析、秩和检验、回归方程的差异分析等。得出云簇水库在１９７９年以前与以后，虽年径流深、年径流系数有差异，但降雨径流关系并无明显差异的结论。     

汾河中下游“96.8”洪水灾害成因分析及防洪对策

１９９６年８月，汾河中下游发生了严重洪涝灾害，鉴于此次洪水范围广、历时长、洪灾严重等特点，为探求其致灾原因和存在的问题，同时也为今后整个流域的规划和治理提供一些依据。在１９９７年初，省水利厅以晋水发［１９９７］２６７号文件下达了研究任务。本文即是针对汾河中下游“９６．８”洪水的产生原因、致灾因素，以汾河干流为主，考虑主要产洪支流文峪河、潇河等，在对汾河水库到汾河入黄口进行全流域性实地调查研究的基础上，对该流域水利工程防洪效益进行分析，通过分析干流及区间洪水，计算出干流区间及主要支流径流系数，同时估算了干流各段河道行洪能力，对现有河道及堤防工程存在的问题提出了治理建议。