基于粒子群优化和支持向量机的花粉浓度预测模型

为了提高花粉浓度预报的准确率，解决现有花粉浓度预报准确率不高的问题，提出了一种基于粒子群优化（PSO）算法和支持向量机（SVM）的花粉浓度预报模型。首先，综合考虑气温、气温日较差、相对湿度、降水量、风力、日照时数等多种气象要素，选择与花粉浓度相关性较强的气象要素构成特征向量；其次，利用特征向量与花粉浓度数据建立SVM预测模型，并使用PSO算法找出最优参数；然后利用最优参数优化花粉浓度预测模型；最后，使用优化后的模型对花粉未来24 h浓度进行预测，并与未优化的SVM、多元线性回归法（MLR）、反向神经网络（BPNN）作对比。此外使用优化后的模型对某市南郊观象台和密云两个站点进行逐日花粉浓度预测。实验结果表明，相比其他预报方法，所提方法能有效提高花粉浓度未来24 h预测精度，并具有较高的泛化能力。     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用

油气操作成本是油气田生产消耗的主要项目，为了有效地控制油气操作成本，必须制定准确的油气操作成本计划。而油气操作成本在我国是最近几年才提出来的，数据项比较少，给油气操作成本预测带来一定的难度。为此，文章根据灰色预测的基本原理，采用灰色系统理论进行油气操作成本预测，就可以弥补对预测所需的数据少，而且也无须剔除不可比因素，只要所建模型能满足精度要求，预测结果就可以信赖。     

油气操作成本预测方法研究

油气操作成本在油气生产中占有较大的比重，油气操作成本的高低直接影响油田开发的经济效益。为了有效地控制油田油气操作成本，根据影响油气操作的因素，将油气操作成本按其影响因素进行分类，对基本运行费和油气处理费采用回归预测的方法，通过对相关数据的收集，建立对应的数学模型进行预测，对其他各项操作成本，采用单位费用和计划工作量进行预测，最后进行汇总，得到油气操作成本，其预测结果可作为油气操作成本计划制订的依据。该方法简单、操作性强，预测效果较好，在油田可以推广使用。     

LNG冷量优化集成利用技术

我国将相继在沿海地区建成多个LNG接收站，每年将进口数以千万吨计的LNG，同时携带数着巨额冷量，而这些冷量可用于发电、空气分离、制造干冰、低温冷库等众多领域。基于国外LNG冷量利用现状，指出我国即将展开和实施此项技术还存在着：过程火用损较大，缺乏系统、全面的LNG冷量利用技术的研发指导机制，以及宏观调控力度薄弱等问题，进而提出了发展LNG冷量的集成利用方案，可为此类技术的研发利用提供新思路。以福建即将进口的LNG为例，模拟了空气分离与干冰制备的集成工艺流程，结果表明：福建每年进口的260×10⁴t LNG可以冷却290×10⁴t空气，相当于60000 m³/h的氧气制备规模，还可以生产100×10⁴t的干冰，其过程火用损较小；其剩余的高温位冷量可应用于低温冻结库或冰灯等项目，这对主体装置的实施效果和过程火用损的影响较小。该技术的优点在于可灵活控制冷却空气的液化率，基本不用冷却循环水，流程简单，设备投资少，能耗低等。     

Reciprocal Relationships Between Collective Efficacy and Team Performance in Women's Ice Hockey.

This study examined reciprocal relationships between collective efficacy and team performance over a season of competition in women's intercollegiate ice hockey within weekends where the opponent was constant for 2 games. Collective efficacy beliefs within 12 teams were assessed prior to both games for at least 7 weekends. Team performance indexes produced an overall measure of performance for each game. The average influence of Saturday collective efficacy on Saturday performance was moderate and positive after controlling for Friday performance. The average influence of Friday performance on Saturday collective efficacy was small and positive after removing the influence of Friday collective efficacy from Friday performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

重复压裂气井产能模拟研究

由于重复压裂气井原有裂缝的失效程度难以评价。导致重复压裂气井的产能预测常常有很大的误差。为此，根据重复压裂气井的压前产量和舍水率，拟合了原有裂缝的有效率，在考虑新裂缝和原有裂缝共同作用的情况下，建立了气、水两相平面二维的裂缝-油藏数学模型，通过对模型的数值求解，对重复压裂气井进行了产能评价。研究表明，在考虑新、老裂缝共同作用下的产能评价方法，能更为准确地预测重复压裂后的生产动态情况，对压裂时机的确定、压后经济效益的预测都具有重要的指导意义。     

Critical-point drying versus freeze drying for scanning electron microscopy: a quantitative and qualitative study on isolated hepatocytes

Critical-point drying and freeze drying were compared both quantitatively and qualitatively as preparative procedures for scanning electron microscopy. Isolated hepatocytes were used as model cells. Nomarski differential interference contrast microscopy was used for light microscopic measurements of the hepatocytes in the unfixed, the glutaraldehyde fixed, the glutaraldehyde + OsO₄ fixed, the critical-point dried and the freeze dried states. Critical-point dried hepatocytes were found to shrink to 38% of glutaraldehyde + OsO₄ fixed volume, whereas optimal freeze dried hepatocytes (frozen in water saturated with chloroform and freeze dried at 183 K for 84 h) were found to shrink to 51% of glutaraldehyde + OsO₄ fixed volume. Transmission and scanning electron micrographs of the critical-point dried cells showed well-preserved ultrastructure and surface structure. Micrographs of the freeze dried cells showed ultrastructure destroyed by internal ice crystals and surface structure destroyed by external ice crystals. Double-fixed isolated hepatocytes were shown to swell during storage in buffer and to shrink during storage after critical-point drying. For low magnification scanning electron microscopy (up to about 3000 times) both critical-point drying and freeze drying can be used. However, for high magnification scanning electron microscopy, critical-point drying is superior to freeze drying.     

我国“十五“电力供需预测分析

分析“十五”期间我国电力需求预测和电力预测中的不确定因素,提出建议采取的措施。     

A model for preventive maintenance operations and forecasting

Equipment costs constitute the greatest majority of overall costs for semiconductor manufacturing. Therefore, maintaining high equipment availability has been regarded as one of the major goals in the industry. The ability to forecast correctly equipment preventive maintenance (PM) timing requirements not only can help optimizing equipment uptime but also minimizing negative impacts on manufacturing production efficiency. This research used grey theory and evaluation diagnosis to construct a PM forecasting model for prediction of PM timing of various machines. The results showed significant improvements of PM timing predictions compared to the existing method based on experience and an alternative method proposed by Li and Chang (Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology Workshop 2002: 10–11, pp. 275–277) for the same fab cases. Received: June 2005 / Accepted: December 2005