中小型水利施工企业推行职工持股的启示

通过广西水电南宁地质勘探基础工程处推行职工持股的思路,结合广西水利施工企业目前的具体情况, 就如何推行职工持股进行探讨,并提出建议及看法。     

世界乙烯工业及其进展

阐述了世界乙烯产能需求现状，近扑扩能增产预测，乙烯原料分析以及乙烯生产的技术进展。     

浅谈畸形波的波形模拟

介绍了畸形波的概念和发生的机理,及两种畸形波波形模拟的方法,以Stocks五阶波的叠加来模拟畸形波,主要用于工程计算;用NLS方程建立深水单向波模型,求出符合畸形波特性的解,对畸形波进行数值模拟,适用于动力分析。     

Exploring the dynamic model of the returns from value stocks and growth stocks using time series mining

This study considered that value stocks and growth stocks are 2-dimensional concepts. We defined the book-to-market ratio as the value factor and the return on equity as the growth factor. We used these 2 factors to divide stocks into 4 types: high-value, low-value, high-growth, and low-growth stocks. Furthermore, we explored the change in stock prices and stock returns for these 4 categories before and after the formation of investment portfolios. We also established a dynamic model showing the returns from value stocks and growth stocks, called the exponential decay model. Finally, we used Taiwan Stock Exchange data to examine effectiveness of the model during the period from 1995 to 2009. The results are as follows: first, high-value stocks and low-value stocks exhibit a significantly over-reacting phenomenon. Second, high-growth stocks and low-growth stocks exhibit an obviously under-reacting phenomenon. Third, in each current quarter, high-value stocks exhibit the lowest returns; however, in the subsequent quarter, they have the highest returns, and then demonstrate a slow declining trend in the following quarters. These results showed that the stock market can exhibit a dramatic response to extraordinary information and proved that the stock market requires considerable time to correct themselves from an excessive reaction, thus high-value stocks exhibited a higher return. Fourth, in each current quarter, high-growth stocks had the highest return, followed by a rapidly decreasing trend in the following quarters. The t + 3 quarter returns were lower than those of low-growth stocks. This result demonstrated that the stock market does not exhibit an adequate reaction, but still remains rather efficient for routine financial information. Finally, regardless of value stocks or growth stocks, exponential decay models could accurately match with the data.     

Smallholders’ Soil Fertility Management in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia: Implications for Nutrient Stocks, Balances and Sustainability of Agroecosystems

Low agricultural productivity caused by soil degradation is a serious problem in the Ethiopian Highlands. Here, we report how differences in soil fertility management between farming systems, based either on enset (Ensete ventricosum) or on teff (Eragrostis tef) as the major crops, affect the extent of nutrient stocks, balances and ecosystem sustainability. We collected information on farmers’ resources and nutrient management practices from stratified randomly selected households in two watersheds in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia. In addition, we collected soil samples from each land use and calculated nutrient stocks, partial and full nutrient balances (N, P and K) for one cropping season. Our results show that farmers in the two farming systems manage their soils differently and that nutrient inputs were positively related to farmers’ wealth status. The watershed with the enset-based system had higher soil N and K stocks than the watershed with the teff-based system, while P stocks were not different. Management related N?and K fluxes were more negative in the teff-based system (?28 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 and ?34 kg K ha^?1 yr^?1) than in the enset-based system (?6 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 and ?14 kg K ha^?1 yr^?1) while P fluxes were almost neutral or slightly positive. Within the enset-based system, a strong redistribution of N, P and K took place from the meadows and cereals (negative balance) to enset (positive balances). Although in the teff-based system, N, P and K were redistributed from meadows, small cereals and pulses to maize, the latter still showed a negative nutrient balance. In contrast to nutrient balances at land use level, nutrient balances at the watershed scale masked contrasting areas within the system where nutrient oversupply and deficiencies occurred.     

DEFORM-3D软件在叶片锻坯结构形式选取中的应用

在叶片锻造过程中,由于变形量大,锻出的叶片会出现如褶皱、裂纹这样的缺陷。为了提高生产效率,一般要求在螺旋压力机上一次锻造成形。因此,采用合理的毛坯结构形式在最小成形载荷下来获得最低程度的缺陷就显得十分重要。常规用来选择叶片锻坯合理结构形式的方法有诸多缺点,采用有限元方法将会在很大程度上弥补这些不足。     

Dynamics of urban and rural housing stocks in China

The massive migration flows from rural to urban areas in China, combined with an expected decline in the total population over the next decades, leads to two important challenges for China's housing: the growth of its urban housing stock and the shrinkage of rural housing. The rural and urban housing systems in China were analyzed using a dynamic material flow analysis model for the period 1900–2100 for several scenarios assuming different development paths for population, urbanization, housing demand per capita, and building lifetime. The simulation results indicate that new housing construction is likely to decline for several decades due to the fast growth over the past 30 years and the expected increased longevity of dwellings. Such an oscillation of new construction activity would have significant implications for the construction industry, employment, raw material demand, and greenhouse gas emissions to produce the construction materials. Policy and practical options for mitigating the negative impacts are considered.

Les flux migratoires massifs des zones rurales vers les zones urbaines en Chine, conjugués à un déclin prévu de la population totale au cours des prochaines décennies, entraînent deux défis importants pour le logement en Chine : la croissance de son parc de logements urbains et la diminution des logements ruraux. Les systèmes de logements ruraux et urbains en Chine ont été analysés en utilisant un modèle d'analyse dynamique des flux de matériaux sur la période 1900-2100 appliqué à plusieurs scénarios supposant différentes voies de développement concernant la population, l'urbanisation, la demande de logements par habitant et la durée de vie des bâtiments. Les résultats de la simulation indiquent qu'il est probable que la construction de logements neufs diminuera pendant plusieurs décennies en raison de la croissance rapide des 30 dernières années et de l'accroissement prévu de la durée de vie des logements. Une telle oscillation de l'activité de construction de logements neufs aurait d'importantes implications pour l'industrie du bâtiment, l'emploi, la demande en matières premières et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre résultant de la production des matériaux de construction. Les choix politiques et pratiques qui permettraient d'en atténuer les effets négatifs sont envisagés.

Mots clés: parcs de bâtiments, demande de constructions neuves, analyse dynamique des flux de matériaux, parc de logements, durée de vie, tendances, urbanisation, Chine     

基于改进人工蜂群算法的机车车辆关键零部件可靠性研究

针对我国机车车辆现行检修制度中可能存在的过修、欠修问题,提出了一种综合图解法和改进人工蜂群(ABC)算法的机车车辆关键零部件可靠性模型拟合方法,对三参数威布尔分布进行参数估计并确立三参数威布尔可靠性模型。首先利用图解法求得三参数威布尔分布参数的初始估计值以及ABC算法的搜索空间,随后运用改进ABC算法进行迭代计算以获得较优的参数估计值,最后将可靠性模型拟合方法与最小二乘法以及概率加权矩法进行分析比较。研究结果表明,提出的可靠性模型拟合方法能够较为准确地确定三参数威布尔可靠性模型。以该模型为基础对机车车辆关键零部件进行可靠性指标计算,为决策人员确定机车车辆最佳维修周期和改进检修规程提供了科学依据。     

独立成份分析方法在股票分析中的应用

为了克服传统的股票分析方法的缺点,将独立成份分析方法用于分析影响股票走势和收益的因素.通过对几个大公司的历年K线数据的深入分析,该方法在一定程度上揭示了影响股票走势和收益的深层次的原因.这对建立和谐的金融体系、促进社会经济的良性发展以及创建和谐的社会都具有一定的现实意义.同时也表明了该方法还具有简单易行、容易理解、结果精确的特点.     

National building stocks: addressing energy consumption or decarbonization?

The Building Research & Information special issue titled ‘Climate Change: National Building Stocks’ (2007) focused attention on the potential that the national building stock has in reducing CO₂ emissions. However, can this potential be realized? To do so requires faith in energy models that suggest that demolition, new build, and the refurbishing of existing homes with insulation measures can deliver massive energy savings by 2050. But why, in the future, can there be increased efficiency and reduced consumption, when this has never occurred in the past? It is argued that the central weakness in the special issue papers is the neglect of the relationship between energy consumption and energy efficiency, and of the ‘rebound effect’. The primary goal, should after all, be to reduce carbon emissions rather than energy use. Hence, emphasis should be placed on decarbonizing the centralized energy-supply systems. However, there will be a role here for micro-generation, building on the favourable image that energy efficiency has amongst the public. In 2050, we may be a low-carbon society, but I doubt we will be a low-energy one.

Le numéro spécial de Building Research & Information intitulé « Changement Climatique: le Parc Bâti National » (2007) a attiré l'attention sur le potentiel de réduction des émissions de CO₂ que possède le parc bâti national. Cependant, ce potentiel peut-il être réalisé? Pour y parvenir, il faut se fier à des modèles énergétiques qui suggèrent que les démolitions, les constructions neuves et une rénovation des logements existants s'accompagnant de mesures d'isolation peuvent assurer des économies d'énergie massives d'ici à 2050. Mais pourquoi y aurait-il à l'avenir un accroissement du rendement énergétique et une réduction de la consommation, alors que cela ne s'est jamais produit par le passé? Il est argumenté que le point faible central des articles de ce numéro spécial réside dans le fait qu'il n'est tenu compte ni de la relation entre consommation d'énergie et rendement énergétique, ni de « l'effet de rebond». Le but premier devrait être, après tout, de réduire les émissions de carbone plutôt que d'utiliser de l'énergie. De sorte que l'accent devrait être mis sur la décarbonisation des systèmes centralisés d'approvisionnement énergétique. Néanmoins, il y aura là un rôle à jouer pour la micro-génération, en tirant parti de l'image favorable que possède le rendement énergétique auprès du public. En 2050, nous serons peut-être une société à faible émission de carbone, mais je doute que nous devenions une société à faible consommation d'énergie.

Mots clés: parc bâti, changement climatique, démolitions, consommation d'énergie, rendement énergétique, faible émission de carbone, mesures politiques, effet de rebond