管道风险管理方法研究

按照管道风险管理的流程分别对管道风险评价、风险控制和决策支持、效能测试和响应进行了论述。针对目前国内管道行业的情况，提出了进行管道风险评价的有效方法及维护措施。着重介绍了国外管道风险可接受标准的情况，作为国内制定管道风险评价标准的参考。     

可拓检测的方案生成

以可拓学理论为基础，论述了可拓检测的有关定义和概念，提出了可拓检测的方案生成方法及过程，同时探讨了检测方法的优化和评价方法。     

Education-driven research in CAD

We argue for a new research category, named education-driven research (EDR), which fills the gap between traditional field-specific research that is not concerned with educational objectives and research in education that focuses on fundamental teaching and learning principles and possibly on their customization to broad areas (such as mathematics or physics), but not to specific disciplines (such as CAD). The objective of EDR is to simplify the formulation of the underlying theoretical foundations and of specific tools and solutions in a specialized domain, so as to make them easy to understand and internalize. As such, EDR is a difficult and genuine research activity, which requires a deep understanding of the specific field and can rarely be carried out by generalists with primary expertise in broad education principles. We illustrate the concept of EDR with three examples in CAD: (1) the Split and Tweak subdivisions of a polygon and its use for generating curves, surfaces, and animations; (2) the construction of a topological partition of a plane induced by an arbitrary arrangement of edges; and (3) a romantic definition of the minimal and Hausdorff distances. These examples demonstrate the value of using analogies, of introducing evocative terminology, and of synthesizing the simplest fundamental building blocks. The intuitive understanding provided by EDR enables the students (and even the instructor) to better appreciate the limitations of a particular solution and to explore alternatives. In particular, in these examples, EDR has allowed the author to: (1) reduce the cost of evaluating a cubic B-spline curve; (2) develop a new subdivision curve that is better approximated by its control polygon than either a cubic B-spline or an interpolating 4-point subdivision curve; (3) discover how a circuit inclusion tree may be used for identifying the faces in an arrangement; and (4) rectify a common misconception about the computation of the Hausdorff error between triangle meshes. We invite the scientific community to encourage the development of EDR by publishing its results as genuine research contributions in peer-reviewed professional journals.     

神经网络分类器的快速构造算法

使用ＢＰ算法训练多层网络的速度很慢而且事先难于确定隐节点和隐层的适当数目。本文提出一个有效的算法，先构造决策树，然后将构造的决策树转换为神经网。文中使用一个全局准则函数控制决策树的增长，它较好地匹配了树的复杂性和训练样本量及错分率界。实验结果，本文的算法比用ＢＰ算法训练多层网络要快，而其分类精度不低于用ＢＰ算法训练的多层神经网。     

A Bayesian approach to the multivariate Behrens-Fisher problem under the assumption of proportional covariance matrices

Summary Two independent random samples of sizesN ₁ andN ₂ from multivariate normal populationsN _p (θ₁,∑₁) andN _p (θ₂,∑₂) are considered. Under the null hypothesisH ₀: θ₁=θ₂, a single θ is generated from aN _p(μ, Σ) prior distribution, while underH ₁: θ₁≠θ₂ two means are generated from the exchangeable priorN _p(μ,σ). In both cases Σ will be assumed to have a vague prior distribution. For a simple covariance structure, the Bayes factorB and minimum Bayes factor in favour of the null hypotheses is derived. The Bayes risk for each hypothesis is derived and a strategy is discussed for using the Bayes factor and Bayes risks to test the hypothesis.     

Rectilinear steiner tree heuristics and minimum spanning tree algorithms using geographic nearest neighbors

We study the application of the geographic nearest neighbor approach to two problems. The first problem is the construction of an approximately minimum length rectilinear Steiner tree for a set ofn points in the plane. For this problem, we introduce a variation of a subgraph of sizeO(n) used by YaO [31] for constructing minimum spanning trees. Using this subgraph, we improve the running times of the heuristics discussed by Bern [6] fromO(n ² log n) toO(n log² n). The second problem is the construction of a rectilinear minimum spanning tree for a set ofn noncrossing line segments in the plane. We present an optimalO(n logn) algorithm for this problem. The rectilinear minimum spanning tree for a set of points can thus be computed optimally without using the Voronoi diagram. This algorithm can also be extended to obtain a rectilinear minimum spanning tree for a set of nonintersecting simple polygons.The results in this paper are a part of Y. C. Yee's Ph.D. thesis done at SUNY at Albany. He was supported in part by NSF Grants IRI-8703430 and CCR-8805782. S. S. Ravi was supported in part by NSF Grants DCI-86-03318 and CCR-89-05296.     

Hydrocarbon exploration risk evaluation through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques

The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental component of the decision process related to the exploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sensitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geometric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncertainty. The geometric uncertainty evaluation makes use of geostatistical techniques that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, together with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure probability map, the drainage area probability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap-filling scenarios.     

Data mining of resilience indicators

In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced several financial setbacks, including speculative attacks in 1998 and the SARS outbreak in 2003. Financial stresses of this nature are unanticipated, and not all of the dangers can be predicted by the examination of market information and macroeconomic indicators. The Early Warning System (EWS) that has been adopted by the International Monetary Fund may not be able to predict future financial crises for all possible scenarios, because shocks come in many different forms. To supplement the EWS, this paper proposes a data mining framework to measure the resilience of an economy. The resilience framework does not predict a crisis, but rather assesses the current state of health of an economy and its ability to withstand a financial shock should one occur. The framework is based on a feedback system consisting of two stages. The first stage assigns a resilience score to each economy based on a fuzzy logic scoring scheme that is built on the ambiguous reasoning of experts. The second stage uses the classification tree approach to estimate thresholds for each economic indicator, and examines the quality of the fuzzy score. The result from the second stage is then passed back to the first stage as feedback. The final result is obtained when the feedback system reaches its equilibrium state. The proposed resilience framework is applied to the external-sector and the public-sector economies of several countries to illustrate its applicability.     

Economic Model to Optimize Underground Utility Protection

The need for better protecting our vital infrastructure from being damaged or destroyed has received increased attention since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The tragedy of having thousands of innocent people die before the eyes of an entire nation awakened people to the reality of “managed” attacks of unthinkable magnitudes. However, tragedies of a smaller scale are a daily occurrence but accepted as “collateral damage” of work in an unsafe environment. This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis to address the question of how much money should be spent in protecting underground utilities from damage. During the study of an actual incident it was found that the total costs of such accidents are vastly underreported because only costs for emergency responses and repair are tallied up. This paper makes the case that a comprehensive approach for assessing the total economic impact of such incidents on the public, business, and government is the critical stepping stone to a mathematical optimization of expenditure for damage prevention. In addition, the reader will quickly realize that the use of the presented optimization model provides theoretical underpinning for the engineering profession in its effort to better protect our critical infrastructure from terrorist attacks.     

基于关键节点和多播节点的多播路由算法

在视频会议等多播应用中，降低多播树网络费用非常重要。本文提出了基于关键节点和目的节点的多播路由KDDMC算法。由于在算法中优先考虑采用关键节点，实现更多链路的共享，从而降低网络费用。在随机网络上的仿真结果表明，KDDMC算法的多播树网络费用优于SPH算法。同时证明了KDDMC算法的复杂度为O(n^3)，且利用所提出的路由表算法易于分布式实现。