渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测

渤海湾盆地的石油地质储量发现过程具有明显的渐进性、阶段性和长期性，石油产量的增长也具有一定的起伏性，用一个周期的单旋回哈伯特模型难以预测其发展趋势。通过分析渤海湾盆地的勘探开发历程，结合新一轮常规油气资源评价的结果，分别采用4个和3个哈伯特旋回拟合石油地质储量发现和产量增长曲线。预测结果显示，2005-2015年渤海湾盆地处于石油地质储量发现高峰期，2015年左右其石油产量达到高峰，之后处于下降趋势。实践证明，利用多旋回哈伯特模型对具有“多峰”特征的石油地质储量和产量的未来趋势进行预测是一种有效的方法。     

Logistic模型的改进及在油藏可采储量预测中的应用

为了更准确地预测油气藏未来的经济可采储量，依据油气藏随开发必然要经历产量递减和生产收支平衡的实际。利用Logistic模型中技术可采储量、产量与时间的相互关系，经推导和改进后，再结合当前经济技术条件下的废弃产油量，预测油气藏的有效生产时间及其经济可呆储量。实践证实，改进后的Logistic模型预测结果更符合油气藏的生产实际，能为油气藏的储量管理提供可靠的依据。     

濮城油田濮67块低渗凝析难动用气藏挖潜技术研究

濮67块具有埋藏深、物性条件差、储量难动用程度低等特点，目前气藏采出程度很低，开发效果差。通过对濮67块天然气储量再认识，落实了该块储量；通过对濮67块各砂组剩余天然气分布规律的研究，明确了剩余气的下步挖潜方向；并开展了配套的剩余天然气挖潜技术研究，通过在生产中应用，取得了较好的增产效果，提高了气藏的采收率。     

Modeling alternative zoning strategies in forest management

To satisfy public demands for environmental values, forest companies are facing the prospect of a reduction in wood supply and increases in costs. Some Canadian provincial governments have proposed intensifying silviculture in special zones dedicated to timber production as the means for pushing out the forest possibility frontiers. In this paper, we compare the traditional two‐zone land allocation framework which includes ecological reserves and integrated forest management zones with the triad — a three‐zone scheme which adds a zone dedicated to intensive timber production. We compare the solutions of the mixed‐integer linear programs formulated under both land‐allocation frameworks. We explore through sensitivity analysis the conditions under which the triad regime can offset the impact on timber production from increased environmental demands. We show that under the realistic conditions characteristic to Coastal British Columbia, higher environmental demands may be satisfied under the triad regime without increasing the financial burdens on the industry or reducing its wood supply. This occurs, however, only if regulatory constraints in timber production zone are flexible.     

新增探明储量的经济可采储量计算方法

提出了新增探明储量有无经济可采储量的判别方法。在此基础上，通过对立已开发油田技术可采储量经济转化率与油藏空气渗透率的相关关系式和图版，根据储层的空气渗透率，计算新增探明储量的经济转化率和经济可采储量。该方法参数易取，计算简便，对于快速、准确计算新增探明储量的经济可采储量具有重要意义。     

Sensitivity of generation reserve requirements in deregulated power systems

Since demand for power exhibits great variability the amount of firm energy to be purchased to meet real time demand based on forecasts is usually different from the realized demand for that period. The role of generation reserves is to meet the real time fluctuations of power demand. The predictable part of the demand is met through purchases of firm energy. In this paper a model is presented to determine optimal quantities of firm energy and generation reserves to meet random demands. The model is then parameterized introducing a set of factors to perform a sensitivity study. A full factorial experiment is designed to study the impact of five factors on the response variable (i.e., proportion of generation reserves on the total purchased quantity). An example consisting of 640 simulations corresponding to 2⁵ treatment combinations evaluated over 20 randomly generated mean demands is used to identify significant factors on the response variable. Results from the experiment suggest that generation reserve requirements should be adjusted considering changes in significant factors and in the mean demand over the dispatch interval.     

一种广义水驱特征曲线的建立

广义水驱特征曲线能描述综合含水储量采出程度呈多种不同的凸、S、凹曲线类型。根据油水两相渗流原理，从归一化的油水相对渗透率出发，建立起累积产油、累积产水与综合含水率的积分相关关系，进而建立了累积产油、累积产水与归一化的油水相对渗透率的关系。通过构建积分函数，利用公式形式类比，建立了更一般形式的广义水驱特征曲线。理论分析和实例计算表明，所建立的广义水驱特征曲线与实际数据线性相关性更强，结果更可靠。     

锦45块“八五”期间新增可采储量技术途径研究

方法 利用注采特征曲线，对锦４５块“八五”期间新增可采储量进行了计算研究，目的 研究蒸汽吞吐阶段增加可采储量的途径，为同类油藏的合理开发提供依据，结果 蒸汽吞吐阶段增加可采储量的三项技术途径；一是加大滚动勘探开发力度，不断发现和投入新储量；二是开展油藏工程研究，搞清油水分布，合理部署调整井，三是综合治理，增加可采储量。结论 “八五”期间，利用上述技术途径，改善了锦４５块开发效果，新增可采储量２７１     

河南油田提高难采储量动用程度的做法

河南油田主力开发区已进入高含水开发后期,后备资源接替严重不足成为制约油田发展的瓶颈。“九五”期间,河南油田加大了难采储量评价和动用的工作力度,按照“整体研究、系统解剖、优选目标、重点突破、滚动发展”的工作思路,对目标区进行综合地质研究,同时运用简易开发、大斜度定向井、稠油冷采等多种开采方式动用难采储量,使资源利用程度逐年提高。“九五”期间共系统开发难采储量437×104t,增加可采储量63.3×104t,建成原油生产能力6.6×104t。文中以张店、新庄油田为重点,探讨了提高难采储量动用程度的途径。     

确定异常高压气藏地质储量和可采储量的新方法

基于文献[1]的定容，封闭，异常高压气藏的物质平衡方程式，提出了确定异常高压气藏原始地质储量，可采储量和采收率的新方法，通过实例的应用和对比表明，提供的新方法是适用的有效的。