大牛地气田异常修正等时试井资料求取产能方法

大牛地气田为低渗-致密气田,因存在启动压力梯度等因素,修正等时试井曲线按常规方法处理出现异常,无法准确获取气井的产能方程.采用LIT法和异常曲线校正法对气田异常试井资料进行了重新处理,最终获得气井产能方程,为同类气藏产能试井可能出现的异常资料处理解释探索了新的途径.     

平差法预计矿区导线网精度

分析了矿区导线网精度预计经典方法存在的问题 ,推导出严密平差法精度预计的数学模型 ,并编制机算程序。     

Information systems effectiveness: research designs for causal inference

Abstract. This paper examines the capacity of the research designs of 37 empirical studies of information systems (IS) effectiveness to provide a basis for the development of theories about behaviour related to IS effectiveness. The power of each study to support causal inference was evaluated in terms of (a) its handling of the time dimension, (b) its ability to weigh differences and (c) its resistance to internal validity threats that pose alternative explanations for its reported findings. Of the reviewed studies, 29.7% could account for the time dimension, 32.4% employed a comparison group and 16.2% were not susceptible to any internal validity threats. Only 13.5% of the studies combined an accounting for the time dimension with the use of a comparison group. Of these, however, only 5.4% were also invulnerable to internal validity threats. The research designs of nearly 95% of these published studies were deficient in supporting causal inference. In those studies, suggestions that one variable was causally related to another variable could not be substantiated. Encouragement for the future capacity of IS effectiveness research to support causal inference was found in a trend towards the use of quasiexperimental designs. Recommendations are made regarding ways to increase the inferential capacity of research designs employed in the study of IS effectiveness.     

An exploration of the problems of using function points mark II

Abstract. This paper examines critically the function point analysis mark II (FPA mark II) method of measuring the functionality of information systems. Although the focus of the paper is on FPA mark II as devised by Symons, both this and the Albrecht method, from which the FPA mark II was developed, are briefly discussed. The published attempts to validate FPA mark II are reviewed and then the problems encountered by the author in applying the approach are described. The final part of the paper is concerned with the fit between SSADM and FPA mark II.     

基于神经网络的降雨径流预报

本文将人工神经网络应用于二滩水电站以上支流鱼河的降雨径流预报，通过建模、计算、比较和分析可知，其非线性映射能力、自学习能力和灵活性，均能较好地反映降雨径流之间的非线性的、复杂的转换关系，结合流域水文特性并合理处理建模数据，值得进一步深入研究。     

洪水预报调度决策系统在抗击台风中的作用

洪水预报调度决策系统近年来在全国各地得到广泛的应用。简单介绍了洪水预报系统的系统组成及功能,分析了系统在抗击台风过程中的作用与效益,总结了系统多年的运行和维护经验。根据多年的运行经验,系统能及时提供雨、水情数据和高效的调度会商决策,提高防御台风、突发性暴雨等自然灾害的能力。     

非方程灰色系统方法在长期水文预报中的应用初探

基于水文过程的复杂性和影响因子信息收集不完善这一基本事实，本文将流域水文系统视为含有灰元和灰信息的灰色系统，并初步实践了非方程灰色预报方法在长期水文预报中的应用。方法在一定意义上脱离了传统的以方程为中心的预报模式，它既考虑预报因子对预报量的不同影响程度，又不过分强调预报量与预报因子的具体相关函数形式，为长期水文预报提供了一种新思路。文中列出了实例，效果令人满意。     

无约束淬火机目标温度神经网络预报

淬火、控制冷却的冷却速度和目标温度是关系到钢板性能的关键因素 ,但由于冷却过程的水量、水温、辊道速度等对冷却目标温度的影响属多变量非线性过程 ,用简单的解析模型通常精度较低 ,难以达到精确控制的要求。采用人工神经网络技术对无约束淬火机目标温度进行快速预报 ,结果表明 ,预测精度高 ,快速准确     

职工持股计划在中国:理论上可行,实践上慎行

在对中美两国的职工持股计划进行分析后,本文认为职工持股计划在中国,理论上可行,但在实践中 需要谨慎行事。     

水电站施工期水土流失预测

水电站建设的水土流失问题主要体现在施工期和运行期，并以施工期的影响较为突出．如不采取必要的减免措施，将会对周围生态环境造成无法挽回的损失。本文阐述了水电站建设水土流失的几种常用的预测方法，对水土流失量进行预测，并结合具体工程实例对水电站建设过程中新增水土流失量进行了预测。