一种基于信噪比确定主元个数的方法

多段主元分析(MPCA)是针对间歇进行故障诊断一种行之有效的方法.在MPCA中主元个数的确定是模型的关键,关系到主元模型的可靠性、准确性、完备性.传统的累积方差贡献率(CPV)方法确定主元个数主观性较大并且没有考虑故障因素.为了提高检测性能,有效的提取主元,文中提出一种信噪比(SNR)与MPCA相结合选取间歇过程主元个数的方法,SNR表明的是故障诊断的灵敏度和主元个数的影响关系,在确保主元信息充分描述数据的基础上,该方法考虑了故障的信息对主元个数的影响来选取主元.将此方法应用于青霉素间歇发酵过程故障诊断中,仿真结果表明T2统计量和SPE统计量的响应曲线对故障更加敏感,有效地提高了故障诊断的准确率.     

Temperature accelerated life test on commercial concentrator III–V triple‐junction solar cells and reliability analysis as a function of the operating temperature

A temperature accelerated life test on commercial concentrator lattice‐matched GaInP/GaInAs/Ge triple‐junction solar cells has been carried out. The acceleration of the aging has been accomplished by subjecting the solar cells at temperatures markedly higher than the nominal working temperature inside a concentrator, and the nominal photo‐current condition (820 X) has been emulated by injecting current in darkness. Three tests at different temperatures have been carried out. The failure distributions across the three test temperatures have been fitted to an Arrhenius–Weibull model. An Arrhenius activation energy of 1.59 eV was determined from the fit. The reliability functions and parameters of these solar cells at two nominal working conditions (80 and 100 °C) have been obtained. In both cases, the instantaneous failure rate function monotonically increases, that is, the failures are of the wear‐out kind. We have also observed that the reliability data are very sensitive to the nominal temperature condition. In fact, at a nominal working condition of 820 X and 80 °C, assuming that the concentration module works 5 h per day, the warranty time obtained for a failure population of 5% has been 113 years. However, for a nominal working condition of 820 X and 100 °C, the warranty time obtained for a failure population of 5% has been 7 years. Therefore, in order to offer a long‐term warranty, the working temperature could be a key factor in the design of the concentration photovoltaic systems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is conversion efficiency still relevant to qualify advanced multi‐junction solar cells?

For better conversion of sunlight into electricity, advanced architectures of multi‐junction (MJ) solar cells include increasing numbers of subcells. The Achilles' heel of these cells lies in their increased sensitivity to the spectral distribution of sunlight, which is likely to significantly alter their performance during real working operation. This study investigates the capacity of MJ solar cells comprising up to 10 subcells to accommodate a wide range of spectral characteristics of the incident radiation. A systematic study is performed, aimed at a realistic estimation of the energy output of MJ‐based concentrating photovoltaic systems at characteristic locations selected to represent a large range of climatic conditions. We show that optimal MJ architectures could have between 4 and 7 subcells. Beyond seven subcells, the slight gains in peak efficiency are likely outweighed by detrimental increases in dependence on local conditions and in annual yield variability. The relevance of considering either conversion efficiency or modeled energy output as the most appropriate indicator of the cell performance, when considering advanced architectures of MJ solar cells, is also discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability of commercial triple junction concentrator solar cells under real climatic conditions and its influence on electricity cost

This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the concentrator solar cell reliability in a real application for a given location provided the results from accelerated life tests. We have applied this methodology for the evaluation of warranty times of commercial triple junction solar cells operating inside real concentrator modules in Golden (Colorado, USA), Madrid (Spain) and Tucson (Arizona, USA) for the period 2012–2015. Warranty times in Golden and Madrid, namely, 68 and 31 years, respectively, for the analysed period, indicate the robustness of commercial triple junction solar cells. Nevertheless, the warranty time of 15 years for Tucson suggests the need of improvement in the heat extraction of the solar cell within the concentrator module. Therefore, the influence of the location on the reliability of concentrator solar cells is huge, and it has no sense to supply general reliability values for a given concentrator product. The influence of these warranty times for the three locations on the levelised cost of electricity has been analysed. Cost of €c10–12/kWh can be achieved nowadays, while after 1 GW_p cumulative installed power, a dramatic reduction to levels of €c2–3/kWh is achievable. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

反射式高倍聚光光伏“光漏斗”匀光技术理论与实验研究

在聚光器和接收器之间加入“光漏斗”匀光器来实现砷化镓(GaAs)电池表面能流密度的均匀分布。根据蒙特卡洛射线法和照射在接收器表面能流密度相同的原理,设计“光漏斗”匀光器。聚光器开口半径为1600 mm,焦距为1700 mm,Tracepro仿真结果显示接收器表面能流密度的均匀度为98.51%,实验显示均匀度为95.05%,仿真值与实验值相近。根据GaAs电池输出电量最大化来确定电池芯片的布置范围,仿真结果得到在半径为36 mm内布置电池芯片,与实验值39 mm相近。     

空间氢镍电池技术的发展

简要叙述了空间氢镍电池技术的发展,主要对共用压力容器(CPV)氢镍电池和单一压力容器(SPV)氢镍电池的技术发展及应用进行了介绍。认为氢镍电池作为储能电源应用于航天领域的前景是光明的。     

An iterative mathematical decision model for cloud migration: A cost and security risk approach

This paper presents an iterative mathematical decision model for organizations to evaluate whether to invest in establishing information technology (IT) infrastructure on‐premises or outsourcing IT services on a multicloud environment. This is because a single cloud cannot cover all types of users’ functional/nonfunctional requirements, in addition to several drawbacks such as resource limitation, vendor lock‐in, and prone to failure. On the other hand, multicloud brings several merits such as vendor lock‐in avoidance, system fault tolerance, cost reduction, and better quality of service. The biggest challenge is in selecting an optimal web service composition in the ever increasing multicloud market in which each provider has its own pricing schemes and delivers variation in the service security level. In this regard, we embed a module in the cloud broker to log service downtime and different attacks to measure the security risk. If security tenets, namely, security service level agreement, such as availability, integrity, and confidentiality for mission‐critical applications, are targeted by cybersecurity attacks, it causes disruption in business continuity, leading to financial losses or even business failure. To address this issue, our decision model extends the cost model by using the cost present value concept and the risk model by using the advanced mean failure cost concept, which are derived from the embedded module to quantify cloud competencies. Then, the cloud economic problem is transformed into a bioptimization problem, which minimizes cost and security risks simultaneously. To deal with the combinatorial problem, we extended a genetic algorithm to find a Pareto set of optimal solutions. To reach a concrete result and to illustrate the effectiveness of the decision model, we conducted different scenarios and a small‐to‐medium business IT development for a 5‐year investment as a case study. The result of different implementation shows that multicloud is a promising and reliable solution against IT on‐premises deployment.     

CPV系统中太阳能转换效率分析方法的探讨

太阳能转换效率是评价太阳能系统优劣的重要指标。在聚光光伏系统中,太阳能转换效率受太阳跟踪误差的影响较大。文章分析了太阳跟踪误差与太阳能转换效率之间的关系,提出了基于跟踪误差的太阳能转换效率误差分析法,填补了光伏产业中缺少太阳能转换效率评定标准的空白。文章以北京地区某日全天太阳光照辐射量数据为例,采用了两种经典的太阳位置算法,对文章所提出的误差分析法进行了验证说明。理论分析和验证表明,误差分析法可以作为评价太阳能系统能量转换效率的评定依据。     

Study on the potential of BML-approach and G-equation concept-based models for predicting swirling partially premixed combustion systems: URANS computations

In this work the potential of two combustion modeling approaches (BML and G-equation based models) for partially premixed flames in combustion systems of various complexities is investigated using URANS computations. The first configuration consists of a nonconfined swirled premixed methane/air flame (swirl number 0.75) exhibiting partially premixed effects due to coflowing. The system is studied either in the isothermal case or in the reacting mode and for different thermal powers. The second configuration represents a model GT combustion chamber and features the main properties of real GT combustors: a confined swirled flow with multiple recirculation zones and reattachment points, resulting in a partially premixed methane/air aerodynamically stabilized flame and an additional diffusion flame formed by the fuel and oxidizer not consumed in the premixed flame. This makes it possible to subject the modeling to variation of different parameters, such as confinement, Re-number or flame power, or adiabatic or nonadiabatic conditions. For this purpose an extended Bray-Moss-Libby model and a G-equation-based approach, both coupled to the mixture fraction transport equation to account for partially premixed effects, are used following the so-called conditional progress variable approach (CPVA). The radiation effects are also taken into account. To account for the turbulence-chemistry interaction, a (multivariate) presumed PDF approach is applied. The results are compared with LDV, Raman, and PLIF measurements. Beyond a pure validation, the URANS is used to capture the presence of the precessing vortex core and to analyze the performance of different modeling strategies of partially premixed combustion in capturing the expansion ratio, species formation conditioned on the flame front, and flame front stabilization. It appears that the combustion models used are able to achieve plausible results in the complex combustion systems under study, while the BML-based model affords less computational time.     

Current‐voltage characteristics of high‐concentration,photovoltaic arrays

The current–voltage ( I–V ) characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) systems have always been a good indicator of the overall performance of a system. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and elucidate the use of the I–V characteristics of concentrator PV (CPV) modules and arrays as an important diagnostic tool to identify factors that lower a system's performance and the types of mismatch that exist between series‐connected single‐junction cells within a module. Possible causes for mismatch between cells include factors such as; misalignment of optical elements and cells, nonuniform cell material parameters, uneven cell illumination due to dew, dust or degradation of the secondary and main optical elements. The different types of mismatch typically found in CPV are categorized and their effects on the resultant module I–V curves are discussed and shown. The effect of bypass diodes on the module's I–V curves is also illustrated. This paper also reports on, and interprets I–V measurements that were recorded for a commercially available point‐focus concentrator module under various real outdoor conditions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.