Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

凉水河污染对土壤和地下水的影响

在凉水河下游取河床底泥及河床下部土样,分析其NH3-N、磷和有机物的变化,发现底泥对NH3-N和磷的去除发挥了很大作用,分别是下部土壤吸附量的10倍和1倍多;土中5种氯代烃均有检出,是河水长期渗漏积累的结果。凉水河流域内的野外试验结果表明,凉水河对地下水存在污染,污染组分主要是CODCr,NH3-N也有一定污染,其他无机污染组分如NO3-N,Cr6+,TP和Pb2+对地下水的影响较小,氯代烃对地下水也有一定影响。据推测,凉水河污染对地下水的影响范围大概在河两侧80 m范围内。     

Expanding the analytical potential of channel locational probability maps using cellular statistics

The planimetric shifts in channel location of large alluvial rivers are a critical component in the creation of diverse structures and functions in riverine habitats. Engineered management schemes must also compensate for this type of channel change to protect resources and maintain navigation channels. The stability of the Lower Mississippi River channel was assessed through an analysis of historical records of channel position produced and archived by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Channel location was recorded for the years 1765, 1820, 1881, 1915, 1930, 1937, 1960 and 1970. Channel stability was measured by two introduced metrics on a cell‐by‐cell basis: (1) the standard deviation of Euclidean distance to a channel cell for the entire period of record, and (2) the rate of Euclidean distance change between years in the period of record. At a coarse spatial scale, channel instability increased in the downstream direction. The variability of channel stability also increased in the downstream direction. Analysis of this variability identified alternating areas of high and low stability occurring with greater frequency as distance downstream increased. These findings are validated by past studies of channel stability along the Lower Mississippi River. As a result, the proposed metrics provide a consistent, quantitative, efficient and cost‐effective means of identifying areas of channel instability at several spatial scales. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

珠江三角洲网河近20年河床演变特征分析

总结了20世纪80年代前珠江三角洲网河河床演变特征,并采用80年代和90年代末的河道地形图,通过对比珠江三角洲各主要河道的深泓线、平均河底高程以及河道容积、河床断面宽深比的变化,分析珠江三角洲80年代后的河床演变特征。对比分析结果表明珠江三角洲在不同时期呈现出不同的河床演变规律——20世纪80年代前以淤积为主,80年代至90年代末转变为以冲刷为主。     

利用黄河泥沙加固下游大堤

黄河是一条举世闻名的多泥沙河流，善淤、善决、善徒给沿河人民带来对过深重灾难，防洪问题一直是国家的心腹之患。泥沙问题是黄河防洪问题的症结所在。在总结固大堤经验的基础，进行挖河疏浚，淤筑“相对地下河”，已作为黄河治理的一项重大决策付诸实施。     

Dissolved organic carbon dynamics in the upper rhone: The influence of side-arms?

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics were investigated over a two year period in the Upper Rhǒne River to examine the role of side-arms in providing DOC to the main channel in relation to discharge fluctuations, especially floods. Concentrations of DOC are shown to remain low in space and in time (average 1.5 mg ^?1) and to be more related to global hydrological events (precipitation) than to any local flushing for backwaters during floods. The results do not support the general assumption that side-arms are the providers of DOC to the main channel.     

中扬子及邻区层序地层与原型盆地演化

中扬子及邻区原型盆地可划分为 9个大层序,其中,1～6大层序由中、古生代海相地层组成;第 7大层序为早、中侏罗纪的陆相沉积;第 8大层序为晚侏罗世的前渊沉积;第 9层序为晚白垩世至第三纪的伸展盆地。震旦纪,中部地区为台地相环境,向南为浅海陆棚环境,向北以陆表海为主;寒武纪至早奥陶世为典型的大陆边缘盆地;中、晚奥陶世至志留纪为裂谷盆地发展阶段;泥盆纪至石炭纪该区发生广泛海侵,与华南海域和太平洋海域多处相连;二叠纪至早、中三叠世为原型盆地的重要转型时期,随着分隔秦岭微板块与扬子板块的勉略古洋盆向东打开,扬子北缘由前期的区域性隆起转变为向北加深的大陆边缘盆地;晚三叠世经历了两次幕式旋回,巴东组沉积时期盆地沉降缓慢,九里岗组沉积时期则较快;早、中侏罗世原型盆地早幕 (早侏罗世)沉积缓慢,晚幕 (中侏罗世)快速沉降,以水下沉积作用为主;晚侏罗世可划分为两大构造演化阶段,早期构造活动相对平静,晚期强烈;晚白垩世至老第三纪,盆地范围缩小,以湖泊、河流体系为主。由此,中扬子及邻区在地质历史时期经历了 4种不同性质的原型盆地,具有幕式充填特征。     

永定新河河口潮流动力及泥沙特征初步分析

依据永定新河河口１９９７年潮汐观测资料及河道１９９０～１９９７年潮汐观测资料，通过实测资料的整理分析，初步揭示了永定新河河口潮流动力及泥沙特征，为河道的治理规划提供了科学的依据。     

鄱阳湖控制浅说

该控制工程主要效益是改变鄱阳湖“夏水冬陆”的现状，成为祖国名符其实的第一大淡水湖，水面与避署胜地庐山和历史名城南昌、景德镇等相连，改善沿湖环境，发展航运，增加水产，开发利用丰富的水资源和旅游资源使之与杭州西湖、瑞士日内瓦湖等并列为世界名湖。     

长江重要堤防隐蔽工程建设投资对扩大内需、拉动经济的作用和影响

长江重要堤防隐蔽工程是党中央、国务院实施积极财政政策进行长江堤防建设的重要组成部分，隐蔽工程既是重要的基础设施，也是重要的环境保护工程，隐蔽工程与其他行业的关联性很强，对众多行业具有巨大的带动作用，有效地扩大了内需，拉动了经济增长。