Use of neural networks for predictions using time series: Illustration with the El Niño Southern oscillation phenomenon

This paper introduces the use of sets of multiple networks (bundled networks) to manage the variability due to different initialization parameters. This method makes it statistically impossible for the networks to be trapped in the same local minimum, and therefore allows better control of the confidence of the prediction eventually given. The spread of the forecasts given by these different networks can be used for prediction reliability purposes. An illustration of this usage is given with the El Niño phenomenon.     

Analysis of the El Niño Effect on the Discharge of Selected Rivers in the Asia-Pacific Region

Abstract

Discharge records originating from 78 rivers within the Asia-Pacific region are used to assess a possible relationship between a temporal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index and regional discharges of rivers. The rivers selected have long monthly discharge series and are geographically distributed throughout the whole region. Analyses of variance are used to identify the sub-regions most teleconnected to the ENSO signal. Composite analyses show the temporal patterns of the relationships between river discharge and the ENSO signal and the possible presence of a time lagged relationship. The analyses show that the rivers of the Oceania-Pacific region are the most affected and that a majority of rivers show a similar temporal pattern, thus allowing the construction of a regional composite streamflow index. The temporal patterns of the identified relationships demonstrate the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of abnormally high or low flows (floods/droughts) months ahead of time.     

苏丹爱马公路项目设备租赁与购置经济比选与决策分析

随着国际工程承包市场的竞争不断加大,项目利润率不断下降。要在国际市场中占据一定的份额,我国企业必须提高工程项目管理水平,在满足合同要求、工程质量与工期的前提下,追求利润最大化。施工设备作为国际工程项目的主要生产要素,如何合理地选择和配置是提高企业市场竞争力及盈利能力的关键。笔者从成本管理的角度进行了财务分析,并综合考虑设备购置和租赁的经济性,通过案例数据进行多种经济分析和比较,从而选择最优方案。     

基于FPGA的E1信号失帧检测研究

针对E1信号传输过程中出现的失帧问题进行研究．提出以FPGA为控制核心的检测方案,当信号出现失帧状况时能及时进行检测并作出相应措施,以保障E1信号传输的稳定、流畅。     

基于E1线路的MPEG2传输系统的实现

自动化控制设备的发展促进了嵌入式远程视频传输设备的广泛使用。MPEG2技术虽然是目前广泛使用的一种音视频压缩技术，但由于目前各种通信资源传输带宽的限制，使得MPEG2音视频流在远程传输上还存在诸多困难，这也就限制了嵌入式远程视频传输设备的应用。另外，E1线路是一种比较方便和可靠的远程传输线路。在单路E1线路上，采用结合MEPG2码流特性的传输控制算法、高压缩比的：MPEG2压缩芯片和DSP芯片将有效地解决以上问题，实现满足应用要求的嵌入式远程视频传输设备。     

Design for the Future: Educational Institutions in the Gulf

Despite a distinguished heritage of learning in the Middle East, the expansion of provision for higher education is currently at an unprecedented scale. The Gulf States, in particular, are seeking to keep up with accelerated population growth and a demographic ‘youth bulge’. Guest-Editor Kevin Mitchell describes the architectural approaches employed in the design of institutions in the region from the first universities in Saudi Arabia to Foster + Partners's ground-breaking sustainable design for the Masdar Institute in Abu Dhabi and future projects.     

New Hearts for Two Gulf Cities

Doha in Qatar and Sharjah in the UAE are both currently looking to their own heritage for inspiration in the redevelopment of their urban cores or hearts. Varkki Pallathucheril , an expert in urban planning and Professor at the College of Architecture, Art and Design at the American University of Sharjah (AUS), considers the impact challenges of this type of development.     

Validation of a method for the detection of five species,serogroups, biotypes and virulence factors of Vibrio by multiplex PCR in fish and seafood

In this work a sequential multiplex PCR system was designed and validated for the detection of most frequent foodborne pathogen Vibrio species in fish and seafood (Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio alginoliticus and Vibrio mimicus). The method proposed functions in a hierarchical way, being composed of an end-point multiplex PCR to detect the presence of DNA belonging to the studied species, followed by multiplex PCR and fragment analysis allowing the viability assessment of the detected strains. The final multiplex PCR step of the method may be applied if identification of the serogroup, biotype and/or virulence factor level is necessary. Forty samples of commercial fish and seafood products were used at the method validation stage. Sixty three marine organism samples obtained from various estuarine areas of Spain including shrimps, crabs, bivalve mollusks and fishes were screened for presence of Vibrio species and 2 mussel samples were found positive for V. parahaemolyticus. On the whole, the proposed method is robust and readily adaptable in routine molecular diagnostic laboratories, allowing monitoring and simultaneous detection of all these bacterial pathogens in seafood samples, reducing the expenses and time consumed by other analytical methods.     

有机薄膜电致发光器件

将无机薄膜电致发光器件和有机薄膜电致发光器件作了一个比较,并给出了有机薄膜电致发光器件的基本结构及其功能层材料选择的依据。最后分析了一个实际制备的双层器件。     

智利El Teniente铜钼矿地质—地球化学特征 及成因模式

智利El Teniente铜钼矿是环太平洋东部安第斯成矿带南部最具代表性的斑岩型矿床之一。该矿床开采历史悠久,并以优越的成矿环境、独特的矿床地质特征、多期次的岩浆—矿化作用而倍受国内外地质学者的关注。对该矿床区域地质及矿床地质特征、岩浆岩Sr-Nd-Pb同位素、锆石Hf-O同位素特征、流体包裹体地球化学特征及矿床成因模式进行了系统总结分析。结果表明,矿体以脉状—网脉状矿化为特征,主要赋存于安山岩、石英闪长岩和英安斑岩体中;矿区各期次岩浆岩体为同一幔源岩浆不同演化阶段的产物,并混有不同比例的俯冲板片物质;矿区成矿流体为高盐度、高温度及高成矿金属浓度的岩浆流体;该矿床的形成与多期次幔源岩浆岩及深部富含Cu、Mo和S组分的成矿流体密切相关。该矿床地球化学及成因模式的研究有利于区域上成矿模式的建立,同时还对于我国该类型矿床成因方面的理论研究及成矿预测具有重大现实意义。