供电企业信息作业风险评估研究

在深入研究事故致因理论、事故风险管理和供电企业生产作业风险管理的基础上,提出了供电企业信息作业风险评估的模型和方法。有助于供电企业建立一套基于风险管理的信息作业指导书,为信息运维人员提供安全作业操作规范,减少安全事故的发生。     

Learning Causes: Psychological Explanations of Causal Explanation1

I argue that psychologists interested in human causal judgment should understand and adopt a representation of causal mechanisms by directed graphs that encode conditional independence (screening off) relations. I illustrate the benefits of that representation, now widely used in computer science and increasingly in statistics, by (i) showing that a dispute in psychology between mechanist and associationist psychological theories of causation rests on a false and confused dichotomy; (ii) showing that a recent, much-cited experiment, purporting to show that human subjects, incorrectly let large causes overshadow small causes, misrepresents the most likely, and warranted, causal explanation available to the subjects, in the light of which their responses were normative; (iii) showing how a recent psychological theory (due to P. Cheng) of human judgment of causal power can be considerably generalized: and (iv) suggesting a range of possible experiments comparing human and computer abilities to extract causal information from associations.     

The role of latent and active failures in workplace slips, trips and falls: an information processing approach

The vast majority of the published workplace slips, trips and falls (STF) literature is exceedingly narrow in its focus and often ignores wider systems issues in workplace STF aetiology. There is little recognition within the published literature of the importance of latent failures or the upstream organisational and cultural contexts within which workplace STF occur. This is unfortunate, as a systems approach to workplace STF analysis, that is inclusive of latent design and work organisation factors that often shape worker behaviour patterns related to STF risk (e.g. rushing, risk taking), is fundamental to the development of effective prevention measures. The aims of this paper are to provide an understanding of workplace STF causation that is cognisant of the potential role of both active and latent failures in STF causation. The paper presents an ergonomics model for workplace STF analysis that highlights information processing in STF aetiology, the STF incident process and the interaction between latent and active failures in STF causation. The paper draws upon ergonomics research conducted in a range of occupational contexts to illustrate the key features of the model as it applies to workplace STF. Implications of the model for analysis and prevention of STF are discussed.     

齐齐哈尔市城市防洪堤险工弱段成险因素分析

在论述堤体、堤基岩性组成的基础上，对险工弱段成险因素进行了分析，提出预防和消险措施。     

水泥混凝土路面早期裂缝的原因及防治

对造成水泥混凝土路面早期裂缝的原因进行了分析，并提出防治措施。     

System thinking applied to near misses: a review of industry-wide near miss reporting systems

Abstract

Learning from near misses is an important component of maintaining safe work systems. Within safety science it is widely accepted that a systems approach is the most appropriate for analysing incidents in sociotechnical systems. The aim of this article is to determine whether industry-level near miss reporting systems are consistent with systems thinking. Twenty systems were identified, from a range of work domains, and were evaluated against systems thinking-based criteria. While none of the reporting systems fulfilled the full set of criteria, all are able to identify actors and contributing factors proximal to events in sociotechnical systems and many capture information on how accidents were prevented. It is concluded that the explanatory power of near miss reporting systems is limited by the systems currently used to gather data. The article closes by outlining a research agenda designed to ensure that near miss reporting systems can fully align with the systems approach.     

综放支架结构性损坏原因及防止对策

针对综采放顶煤支架出现的结构性损坏,以21121综放工作面为例,结合矿山压力显现规律,对其原因进行分析说明,并提出了防止对策。     

The development of risk assessment models for carpal tunnel syndrome: a case-referent study

The present study developed risk assessment models for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) which can provide information of the likelihood of developing CTS for an individual having certain personal characteristics and occupational risks. A case-referent study was conducted consisting of two case groups and one referent group: (1) 22 work-related CTS patients (W-CTS), (2) 25 non-work related CTS patients (NW-CTS), and (3) 50 healthy workers (HEALTHY) having had no CTS history. The classification of CTS patients into one of the case groups was determined according to the type of insurance covering their medical costs. Personal characteristics, psychosocial stresses at work, and physical work conditions were surveyed by using a questionnaire tailor-designed to CTS (reliability of each scale ? 0.7). By contrasting the risk information of each case group to that of the referent group, three logistic regression models were developed: W-CTS/HEALTHY, NW-CTS/HEALTHY, and C-CTS/HEALTHY (C-CTS, the combined group of W-CTS and NW-CTS). ROC analysis indicated that the models have satisfactory discriminability (d′ = ;1.91 to 2.51) and high classification accuracy (overall accuracy = 83 – 89%). Both W-CTS/HEALTHY and C-CTS/HEALTHY include personal and physical factors, while NW-CTS/HEALTHY involves only personal factors. This suggests that the injury causation of NW-CTS patients should be attributable mainly to their ‘high’ personal susceptibility to the disorder rather than exposure to adverse work conditions, while that of W-CTS patients be attributable to improper work conditions and CTS-prone personal characteristics in combination.     

Exploring inattention and distraction in the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database

Distraction and inattention are considered to be very important and prevalent factors in the causation of road accidents. There have been many recent research studies which have attempted to understand the circumstances under which a driver becomes distracted or inattentive and how distraction/inattention can be prevented. Both factors are thought to have become more important in recent times partly due to the evolution of in-vehicle information and communication technology. This study describes a methodology that was developed to understand when factors such as distraction and inattention may have been contributors to crashes and also describes some of the consequences of distraction and inattention in terms of subsequent driver actions.     

基于拉夫堡ConAC模型的建筑业起重机械事故致因分析

为更好地探索分析建筑业起重机械事故原因,以国家住建部网站获取的 2012~2017 年起重伤害事故部分调查报告为样本,采用拉夫堡 ConAC 模型,开展建筑业起重设备事故原因调查和分析。同时运用事故路径网络图进一步分析各层原因之间的因果关系。结果表明,建筑业起重机械事故三大致因分别为:动作行为、监督管理、风险管理;追溯到事故发生的本质原因形成如重物坠落打击伤害类型事故链,为建筑企业安全管理提供科学的依据和决策。