The negated conditional: A litmus test for the suppositional conditional?

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability [P(q/p)]. In this paper, the authors examine a further implication of this analysis with respect to the wide-scope negation of conditional assertions, "it is not the case that if p then q." Under the suppositional account, nothing categorically follows from the negation of a conditional, other than a second conditional, "if p then not-q." In contrast, according to the mental model theory, a negated conditional is consistent only with the determinate state of affairs, p and not-q. In 4 experiments, the authors compare the contrasting predictions that arise from each of these accounts. The findings are consistent with the suppositional theory but are incongruent with the mental model theory of conditionals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

二次筛选法求信息系统的约简

文中定义了区分属性集的码函数,并通过对区分矩阵中区分属性集码函数值的二次筛选得到区分函数的最小析取范式,最小析取式的每一个合取项即为信息系统的一个约简,该算法可以计算出信息系统的所有约简.     

泛逻辑的一级泛运算模型的代数性质

论文讨论泛逻辑的一级泛运算模型的基本代数性质。证明了T(x,y,h,k)(h∈(0,0.75),k∈(0,1))是幂零的阿基米德型三角范数,T(x,y,h,k)(h∈(0.75,1),k∈(0,1))是严格的阿基米德型三角范数;泛与运算模型与泛蕴涵运算模型形成一个伴随对。当h∈(0,0.75),k∈(0,1)时,有界格(眼0,1演,∨,∧,觹,→,0,1)做成一个MV-代数;当h∈(0.75,1),k∈(0,1)时,有界格(眼0,1演,∨,∧,觹,→,0,1)做成一个乘积代数。进一步,给出了一级泛与运算模型与泛或运算模型的加性生成元与乘性生成元。     

Quality control and due diligence in project management: Getting decisions right by taking the outside view

This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits – used in the business cases, cost–benefit analyses, and social and environmental impact assessments that typically support decisions on projects – are commonly significantly different from actual ex post costs and benefits, and are therefore poor predictors of the actual value and viability of projects. Second, it is discussed how Kahneman and Tversky's theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may help explain and remedy this situation through quality control of decisions. Third, it is described what quality control and due diligence are in the context of project management, and an eight-step procedure is outlined for due diligence based on the outside view. Fourth, the procedure is tested on a real-life, multibillion-dollar project, organized as a public–private partnership. Finally, Akerlof and Shiller's recent discussion in economics of “firing the forecaster” is discussed together with its relevance to project management. In sum, the paper demonstrates the need, the theoretical basis, a practical methodology, and a real-life example for how to de-bias project management using quality control and due diligence based on the outside view.     

命题逻辑中推理理论的数字形式

本文对简单合取式的主析取范式及简单析取式的主合取范式作了数字形式上的表示,在一定程度上简化了自然推理系统P.     

Possible aggregation biases in road safety research and a mechanism approach to accident modeling

In accident reconstruction, individual road accidents are treated as essentially deterministic events, although incomplete information can leave one uncertain about how exactly an accident happened. In statistical studies, on the other hand, accidents are treated as individually random, although the parameters governing their probability distributions may be modeled deterministically. Here, a simple deterministic model of a vehicle/pedestrian encounter is used to illustrate how naïvely applying statistical methods to aggregated data could lead to an ecological fallacy and to Simpson’s paradox. It is suggested that these problems occur because the statistical regularities observed in accident data have no independent status, but are simply the result of aggregating particular types and frequencies of mechanisms.     

质量管理体系运行与具体工作脱节的问题探讨

通过分析中质协审核组对某公司质量管理体系运行情况提出的建议，概括了公司质量管理体系与具体工作脱节的几个问题，针对存在的问题探索了解决对策，从而使质量管理体系起到指导和监督具体工作的作用。     

Genetic essentialism: On the deceptive determinism of DNA.

This article introduces the notion of genetic essentialist biases: cognitive biases associated with essentialist thinking that are elicited when people encounter arguments that genes are relevant for a behavior, condition, or social group. Learning about genetic attributions for various human conditions leads to a particular set of thoughts regarding those conditions: they are more likely to be perceived as (a) immutable and determined, (b) having a specific etiology, (c) homogeneous and discrete, and (d) natural, which can lead to the naturalistic fallacy. There are rare cases of “strong genetic explanation” when such responses to genetic attributions may be appropriate; however, people tend to overweigh genetic attributions compared with competing attributions even in cases of “weak genetic explanation,” which are far more common. The authors reviewed research on people's understanding of race, gender, sexual orientation, criminality, mental illness, and obesity through a genetic essentialism lens, highlighting attitudinal, cognitive, and behavioral changes that stem from consideration of genetic attributions as bases of these categories. Scientific and media portrayals of genetic discoveries are discussed with respect to genetic essentialism, as is the role that genetic essentialism has played (and continues to play) in various public policies, legislation, scientific endeavors, and ideological movements in recent history. Last, moderating factors and interventions to reduce the magnitude of genetic essentialism, which identify promising directions to explore in order to reduce these biases, are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)