Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts

Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run boundary values or steady-state 'endpoints' – fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected long-run inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of 'moving endpoint' time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents.     

浅谈语文教学中的形象思维

形象思维足语文教学内容的一个重要组成部分,是语言表达的基础.语文课应该重视对学生形象思维的培养与训练.     

引力势、物质运动与时空结构 宇宙演化概略与“暗能量”

将物质运动和宇宙引力势之间的相互作用关系用于解释大爆炸理论模型,推论了宇宙演化概略.分析了由各个层次的物质运动与宇宙引力势之间的相互作用所产生的后果及其在宇宙演化过程中所起的作用,讨论了宇宙由减速膨胀转变为加速膨胀的基本原因,澄清了"暗能量"的本质.     

中国通货膨胀与相对价格可变性——基于长期效应与短期效应的实证分析

在构建通货膨胀与RPV关系理论模型的基础上,运用面板数据固定效应估计量来检验中国通货膨胀对RPV影响的长期效应,并构建向量误差修正模型来分析中国通货膨胀对RPV影响的短期效应.研究得出,在不考虑确定性因素和外生变量的情况下,从全国来看,总体是短期效应大于长期效应;相反则是长期效应略大于短期效应.在上述两种情况下,各地区的长期效应与短期效应也明显不同.因此,国家应该多考虑不同地区通货膨胀对RPV影响的长期效应与短期效应大小,从而有效地治理通货膨胀和稳定物价水平.     

爱因斯坦的高等教育观

爱因斯坦是二十世纪科学巨匠,和科学贡献一样,他的高等教育观是十分深刻的。爱因斯坦的高等教育观,本文梳理为六条:兴趣和爱好是最好的老师;想象力比知识更重要;发展独立思考和独立判断能力;讨论是学习的好形式;鼓励学生去实际行动;学校教育的目标是培养和谐的人。研究爱因斯坦的高等教育观,对于深化高等教育改革与培养高素质人才,具有积极意义。     

Optimal cycle time and inventory decisions in coordinated and non-coordinated two-echelon inventory system under inflation and time value of money

In this paper, a mathematical model is developed for a coordinated and non-coordinated two-echelon inventory system comprising of a single manufacturer and a single retailer. The objective of the model is to demonstrate the optimality of cycle time and inventory decisions under the phenomena of different inflation rates at the manufacturer and retailer points. Also, it is aimed at determining the annual net revenue of the supply chain (SC). In the proposed model, the present value of the inflated ordering/set-up costs, purchase/unit costs, carrying costs and the gross revenue is computed for the retailer, manufacturer and the SC. A numerical example is devised to illustrate the optimality of decision variables and the objective function. Also, the sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results show that the present value of the annual net revenue of the retailer, manufacturer and SC decreases with increased inflation rate at the retailer and decreased inflation rate at the manufacturer simultaneously.     

Comparing the Slack-Variable Mixture Model With Other Alternatives

There have been many linear regression models proposed to analyze mixture experiments including the Scheffé model, the slack-variable model, and the Kronecker model. The use of the slack-variable model is somewhat controversial within the mixture experiment research community. However, in situations that the slack-variable ingredient is used to fill in the formulation and the remaining ingredients have constraints such that they can be chosen independently of one another, the slack-variable model is extremely popular by practitioners mainly due to the ease of interpretation. In this article, we advocate that for some mixture experiments the slack-variable model has appealing properties including numerical stability and better prediction accuracy when model-term selection is performed. We also explain how the effects of the slack-variable model components should be interpreted and how easy it is for practitioners to understand the components effects. We also investigate how to choose the slack-variable component, what transformation should be used to reduce collinearity, and under what circumstances the slack-variable model should be preferred. Both simulation and practical examples are provided to support the conclusions.     

插画设计的视觉修辞

目的提出视觉修辞在插画设计中的重要性,并对插画设计的视觉修辞方法进行分析。方法对插画设计中常用的视觉修辞手法以实例探讨,分别从拟人、对比、夸张、比喻、象征5个方面进行分类分析。结论视觉修辞对插画设计的创作不可或缺,其丰富了插画师的想像力,拓展了插画设计的表现手法,增强了插画作品的艺术感染力,表达了插画作品的深层内涵,沟通了插画师和观赏者的情感与思想。     

两种适合零膨胀微晶玻璃晶化热处理工艺制定的实验方法研究

通过晶核形成速度和晶体生长速度曲线可以确定零膨胀微晶玻璃晶化热处理工艺的主要参数,但受到各种因素的影响,往往不能及时、准确地得到这两条曲线。研究表明可以通过晶化热处理过程中一些反映内部结构变化的性质和现象,来制定和优化晶化热处理工艺。本文通过对晶化热处理过程折射率ND和发热量的变化进行记录和分析,制定和优化了晶化热处理工艺的方法。     

对预警探测雷达模拟器目标分辨率模型的校验方法的研究

预警探测雷达模拟器目标分辨率设置会影响目标数量的探测,分辨率错误会产生与实体雷达不一致的虚警和漏警,影响预警探测雷达模拟器的逼真度。本文首先从理论上分析了对目标分辨率模型进行校核应该注意的几个方面,然后研究了用来测试验证目标分辨率模型的空情想定的设计方法,通过对预警探测雷达模拟器目标分辨率模型进行校验,可以有效提高模型的仿真效果。