Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

Classification of the cardiotocogram data for anticipation of fetal risks using machine learning techniques

The aim of the research is evaluating the classification performances of eight different machine-learning methods on the antepartum cardiotocography (CTG) data. The classification is necessary to predict newborn health, especially for the critical cases. Cardiotocography is used for assisting the obstetricians’ to obtain detailed information during the pregnancy as a technique of measuring fetal well-being, essentially in pregnant women having potential complications. The obstetricians describe CTG shortly as a continuous electronic record of the baby's heart rate took from the mother's abdomen. The acquired information is necessary to visualize unhealthiness of the embryo and gives an opportunity for early intervention prior to happening a permanent impairment to the embryo. The aim of the machine learning methods is by using attributes of data obtained from the uterine contraction (UC) and fetal heart rate (FHR) signals to classify as pathological or normal. The dataset contains 1831 instances with 21 attributes, examined by applying the methods. In the paper, the highest accuracy displayed as 99.2%.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

Some picture fuzzy Bonferroni mean operators with their application to multicriteria decision making

In this paper, we extend the Bonferroni mean (BM) operator with the picture fuzzy numbers (PFNs) to propose novel picture fuzzy aggregation operators and demonstrate their application to multicriteria decision making (MCDM). On the basis of the algebraic operational rules of PFNs and BM, we introduce some aggregation operators: the picture fuzzy Bonferroni mean, the picture fuzzy normalized weighted Bonferroni mean, and the picture fuzzy ordered weighted Bonferroni mean. Then, a new picture fuzzy MCDM method is proposed with the help of the proposed operators. Lastly, a practical application of proposed model is given to verify the developed model and related results of the proposed model is compared with the results of the existing models to indicate its applicability.     

Prediction of risk factors of cyberbullying-related words in Korea: Application of data mining using social big data

The study examined a decision tree analysis using social big data to conduct the prediction model on types of risk factors related to cyberbullying in Korea. The study conducted an analysis of 103,212 buzzes that had noted causes of cyberbullying and data were collected from 227 online channels, such as news websites, blogs, online groups, social network services, and online bulletin boards. Using opinion-mining method and decision tree analysis, the types of cyberbullying were sorted using SPSS 25.0. The results indicated that the total rate of types of cyberbullying in Korea was 44%, which consisted of 32.3% victims, 6.4% perpetrators, and 5.3% bystanders. According to the results, the impulse factor was also the greatest influence on the prediction of the risk factors and the propensity for dominance factor was the second greatest factor predicting the types of risk factors. In particular, the impulse factor had the most significant effect on bystanders, and the propensity for dominance factor was also significant in influencing online perpetrators. It is necessary to develop a program to diminish the impulses that were initiated by bystanders as well as victims and perpetrators because many of those bystanders have tended to aggravate impulsive cyberbullying behaviors.     

Improving the multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm for hydropower reservoir operations in the California Oroville–Thermalito complex

This study demonstrates the application of an improved Evolutionary optimization Algorithm (EA), titled Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method with Principal Component Analysis and Crowding Distance Operator (MOSPD), for the hydropower reservoir operation of the Oroville–Thermalito Complex (OTC) – a crucial head-water resource for the California State Water Project (SWP). In the OTC's water-hydropower joint management study, the nonlinearity of hydropower generation and the reservoir's water elevation–storage relationship are explicitly formulated by polynomial function in order to closely match realistic situations and reduce linearization approximation errors. Comparison among different curve-fitting methods is conducted to understand the impact of the simplification of reservoir topography. In the optimization algorithm development, techniques of crowding distance and principal component analysis are implemented to improve the diversity and convergence of the optimal solutions towards and along the Pareto optimal set in the objective space. A comparative evaluation among the new algorithm MOSPD, the original Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method (MOCOM), the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution method (MODE), the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), the Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing approach (MOSA), and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization scheme (MOPSO) is conducted using the benchmark functions. The results show that best the MOSPD algorithm demonstrated the best and most consistent performance when compared with other algorithms on the test problems. The newly developed algorithm (MOSPD) is further applied to the OTC reservoir releasing problem during the snow melting season in 1998 (wet year), 2000 (normal year) and 2001 (dry year), in which the more spreading and converged non-dominated solutions of MOSPD provide decision makers with better operational alternatives for effectively and efficiently managing the OTC reservoirs in response to the different climates, especially drought, which has become more and more severe and frequent in California.     

PMU based voltage security assessment of power systems exploiting principal component analysis and decision trees

The need for feature selection and dimension reduction is felt as a fundamental step in security assessment of large power systems in which the number of features representing the state of power grids dramatically increases. These large amounts of attributes are not proper to be used for computational intelligence (CI) techniques as inputs, because it may lead to a time consuming procedure with insufficient results and they are not suitable for on-line purposes and updates.This paper proposes a combined method for an online voltage security assessment in which the dimension of the token data from phasor measurement units (PMUs) is reduced by principal component analysis (PCA). Then, the features with different stability indices are put into several categories and feature selection is done by correlation analysis in each category. These selected features are then given to decision trees (DTs) for classification and security assessment of power systems.The method is applied to 39-bus test system and a part of Iran power grid. It is seen from the results that the DTs with reduced data have simpler splitting rules, better performance in saving time, reasonable DT error and they are more suitable for constant updates.     

Does decision quality (always) increase with the size of information samples? Some vicissitudes in applying the law of large numbers.

Adaptive decision making requires that contingencies between decision options and their relative assets be assessed accurately and quickly. The present research addresses the challenging notion that contingencies may be more visible from small than from large samples of observations. An algorithmic account for such a seemingly paradoxical effect is offered within a satisficing-choice framework. Accordingly, a choice is only made when the sample contingency describing the relative evaluation of the 2 options exceeds a critical threshold. Small samples, because of the high dispersion of their sampling distribution, facilitate above-threshold contingencies. Across a broad range of parameters, the resulting small-sample advantage in terms of hits is stronger than their disadvantage in false alarms. Computer simulations and experiments support the model predictions. The relative advantage of small samples is most apparent when information loss is low, when the threshold is high relative to the ecological contingency, and when the sampling process is self-truncated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)