Flexible Distribution-Based Regression Models for Count Data: Application to Medical Diagnosis

Abstract

Data mining techniques have been successfully utilized in different applications of significant fields, including medical research. With the wealth of data available within the health-care systems, there is a lack of practical analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. The complexity of medical data that is unfavorable for most models is a considerable challenge in prediction. The ability of a model to perform accurately and efficiently in disease diagnosis is extremely significant. Thus, the model must be selected to fit the data better, such that the learning from previous data is most efficient, and the diagnosis of the disease is highly accurate. This work is motivated by the limited number of regression analysis tools for multivariate counts in the literature. We propose two regression models for count data based on flexible distributions, namely, the multinomial Beta-Liouville and multinomial scaled Dirichlet, and evaluated the proposed models in the problem of disease diagnosis. The performance is evaluated based on the accuracy of the prediction which depends on the nature and complexity of the dataset. Our results show the efficiency of the two proposed regression models where the prediction performance of both models is competitive to other previously used regression models for count data and to the best results in the literature.     

Learning about tools in infancy.

These experiments explored the role of prior experience in 12- to 18-month-old infants' tool-directed actions. In Experiment 1, infants' use of a familiar tool (spoon) to accomplish a novel task (turning on lights inside a box) was examined. Infants tended to grasp the spoon by its handle even when doing so made solving the task impossible (the bowl did not fit through the hole in the box, but the handle did) and even though the experimenter demonstrated a bowl-grasp. In contrast, infants used a novel tool flexibly and grasped both sides equally often. In Experiment 2, infants received training using the novel tool for a particular function; 3 groups of infants were trained to use the tool differently. Later, infants' performance was facilitated on tasks that required infants to grasp the part of the tool they were trained to grasp. The results suggest that (a) infants' prior experiences with tools are important to understanding subsequent tool use, and (b) rather than learning about tool function (e.g., hammering), infants learn about which part of the tool is meant to be held, at least early in their exposure to a novel tool. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

试论就业形势与战略

论述了就业的特殊重要性、目前我国就业形势的极端严重性，以及所应当采取的战略和措施。     

Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian model specification: A case study involving models for count data

In this paper we present the results of a simulation study to explore the ability of Bayesian parametric and nonparametric models to provide an adequate fit to count data of the type that would routinely be analyzed parametrically either through fixed-effects or random-effects Poisson models. The context of the study is a randomized controlled trial with two groups (treatment and control). Our nonparametric approach uses several modeling formulations based on Dirichlet process priors. We find that the nonparametric models are able to flexibly adapt to the data, to offer rich posterior inference, and to provide, in a variety of settings, more accurate predictive inference than parametric models.     

基于单幅图像景深和大气散射模型的去雾方法

为恢复雾天图像对比度和颜色,更好地提取图像中的信息,根据海上开阔海域的特点,利用3维到2维透视投影模型,推导了海上图像任意像素点景深的计算公式,并结合暗原色先验知识,有效解决基准景深点的选取和天空亮度的选取问题,最后基于相对景深模型和大气散射模型,对单幅雾天图像进行清晰化处理。通过大量雾天降质图像的实验验证,该算法的去雾效果优于基于暗原色先验统计方法的效果。     

基于局部自适应先验MRF模型的快速BP图像分割算法

针对常规MRF分割模型不能有效描述图像的局部特征、常导致图像的过分割现象,提出了一种局部自适应先验的MRF模型。该模型利用图像的邻接区域信息建立了一种局部自适应特征MRF模型。基于提出的模型,建立了一种具有快速收敛策略的区域BP算法对MRF模型的区域消息进行传递,有效解决了区域BP算法的计算量大的问题。实验结果表明,与常规区域BP算法相比,提出的分割方法具有更快的分割速度和精度。     

基于先验知识的自适应多叉树防碰撞算法

为提高无线射频识别(RFID)系统快速识别大量标签的能力,提出一种基于先验知识的自适应多叉树防碰撞算法。利用标签访问的规律性和标签分布的随机性,在不同的搜索深度,根据已有的先验知识和碰撞比特信息估计待识别的标签数量,从而动态地自适应选择搜索叉树。通过有效减少碰撞和空闲时隙数,大幅提高读写器搜索和识别标签的能力。理论分析与仿真实验结果表明,该算法能克服传统自适应多叉树防碰撞算法的缺点,合理选择初始搜索叉树,尤其在待识别标签数量较多的场合,可有效提高RFID系统的吞吐率。     

一种结合主题模型的推荐算法

针对传统协同过滤推荐算法存在的冷启动、数据稀疏以及相似度度量的准确性问题,基于LDA主题模型对文本隐式主题挖掘的有效性和KL散度在主题分布相似性度量的准确性,提出了结合LDA主题模型的矩阵分解推荐算法。首先,利用改进的LDA算法输出项目-主题分布,并用困惑度作为主题数设置的修正函数;然后分别基于余弦相似度和KL散度计算得到项目相似度矩阵,将得到的相似度矩阵结合原评分训练集输出预评分,再将预评分填充到训练集;最后将训练集输入ALS矩阵分解算法得到推荐结果。通过MovieLens数据集的实验结果表明,该算法在不同隐式参数设定下均能得到比ALS推荐算法以及更小的预测误差,并且最优预测误差小于传统推荐算法。该实验说明了通过集成LDA主题模型的ALS算法效果要优于其他推荐算法。     

Bayesian estimation of Dirichlet mixture model with variational inference

In statistical modeling, parameter estimation is an essential and challengeable task. Estimation of the parameters in the Dirichlet mixture model (DMM) is analytically intractable, due to the integral expressions of the gamma function and its corresponding derivatives. We introduce a Bayesian estimation strategy to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters in DMM. By assuming the gamma distribution as the prior to each parameter, we approximate both the prior and the posterior distribution of the parameters with a product of several mutually independent gamma distributions. The extended factorized approximation method is applied to introduce a single lower-bound to the variational objective function and an analytically tractable estimation solution is derived. Moreover, there is only one function that is maximized during iterations and, therefore, the convergence of the proposed algorithm is theoretically guaranteed. With synthesized data, the proposed method shows the advantages over the EM-based method and the previously proposed Bayesian estimation method. With two important multimedia signal processing applications, the good performance of the proposed Bayesian estimation method is demonstrated.     

基于概率支持向量回归的产品设计时间预测模型

为使产品设计时间预测既克服小样本、异方差噪声问题,又提供除预测值以外的其他有用信息,建立概率支持向量回归(PSVR)模型。首先,在异方差回归模型基础上设计概率约束条件,以使预测值以较大概率位于真实值的某邻域,结合具有参数不敏感损失函数的支持向量回归确定优化目标,提出PSVR。然后,将最大完工时间知识嵌入进PSVR的约束条件,用以确定真实值邻域的宽度,将交叉验证与遗传算法相结合以确定PSVR的相关参数。最后,以注塑模具设计的实例进行分析,结果表明基于PSVR的时间预测方法可同时提供有效的预测值和预测区间。