我国“十五“电力供需预测分析

分析“十五”期间我国电力需求预测和电力预测中的不确定因素,提出建议采取的措施。     

Generation and selection of likely interpretations during plan recognition in task-oriented consultation systems

This paper presents a mechanism which infers a user's plans from his/her utterances by directing the inference process towards the more likely interpretations of a speaker's statements among many possible interpretations. Our mechanism uses Bayesian theory of probability to assess the likelihood of an interpretation, and it complements this assessment by taking into consideration two aspects of an interpretation: its coherence and its information content. The coherence of an interpretation is determined by the relationships between the different statements in the discourse. The information content of an interpretation is a measure of how well defined the interpretation is in terms of the actions to be performed on the basis of this interpretation. This measure is used to guide the inference process towards interpretations with higher information content. The information content of an interpretation depends on the specificity and the certainty of the inferences in it, where the certainty of an inference depends on the knowledge on which the inference is based. Our mechanism has been developed for use in task-oriented consultation systems. The particular domain that we have chosen for exploration is that of travel booking.     

勘测关键技术及其综合应用研究

勘测关键技术及其综合应用研究，系国家“八五”科技攻关２０８－０２－０５专题。该专题研究结合锦屏一、二级等工程，专业面广，应用性强，研究工作难度大，是当前水电工程地质勘探技术中的薄弱环节，是关系到前期工作进展和工程经济效益的重大课题。其研究内容包括：岩心定向技术、砂卵石层取心技术，地应力测试与分析新技术，岩体裂隙结构面的计算机处理系统、岩溶探测新技术、高分辨率工程地震勘探技术、３０００系列测井仪的改     

黄浦江上游水源地突发性水污染事故应急处置预案探讨

阐述了水源地突发污染事件的概念、特点及其对于供水安全和城市经济社会系统安全运行的重要意义.论述了城市水源地突发污染事件应急研究的主要内容;以上海市黄浦江上游水源地为例,探讨了突发性污染事件应急处置体系的构建,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

对通信建设项目经济评价方法的改进建议

针对现行《邮电通信建设项目经济评价方法与参数》及经济评价工作存在的不足，提出一些改进建议。     

电信建筑在岩溶发育地区的地基基础设计

结合新密电信综合生产楼工程和贵阳第二长途电信枢纽楼工程的设计，介绍在岩溶发育场地上，对浅层岩溶地基的处理方法及基础类型的选择思路。     

认清形势 振奋精神全面完成化工“八五”计划的各项任务

总结回顾了１９９４年中国化学工业的改革及发展现状，提出了１９９５年化工生产建设的目标及在化工行业改革方面的四项试点工作，强调了编制“九五”计划的重要性。     

浅谈化工企业的采购管理

化工企业应重视采购计划预算，开发和管理供应商，考核采购绩效，增强企业竞争力。     

化学工业“十五”发展回顾与“十一五”展望

目前,我国化学工业依然存在自主创新能力不强、产品档次和附加价值低、企业规模小、能源利用率低等问题,并面临环境容量限制和资源短缺的严峻压力。预计“十一五”期间,我国化学工业将继续保持快速发展的态势,但由于全行业面临资源、能源紧张及价格上涨的压力,利润增幅将有所下降。我国必须以科学发展观为指导,调整产业结构,优化产业布局,提高自主创新能力,大力发展循环经济,努力突破一批重大、关键性技术,提高产业技术水平和产品档次,降低能源、资源消耗和污染物排放,才能实现化学工业的可持续、健康发展。     

An economic–ecological model to evaluate impacts of nutrient abatement in the Baltic Sea

This paper presents a coupled economic–ecological model that integrates a catchment model with a marine model and incorporates economic data to analyse the long-term economic and ecological consequences of nutrient abatement in the Baltic Sea. The spatially explicit model describes dynamics of soil phosphorus in arable land, developments of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass in the sea basins, and inter-annual variation in nutrient loads and biophysical processes. The performance of the model is demonstrated by computing the least-cost solution to reach the good environmental state of the sea – as implied by the Baltic Sea Action Plan – within a time span of 40 years. The total cost of achieving this target is 1487 M€ annually. Spatially optimal allocation of load reductions differs from the load reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan, and focuses more on the control of phosphorus loads.