基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

Hydrogen supply scenarios for a climate neutral energy system in Germany

A climate neutral energy system in Germany will most likely require green hydrogen. Two important factors, that determine whether the hydrogen will be imported or produced locally from renewable energy are still uncertain though - the import price for green hydrogen and the upper limit for photovoltaic installations. To investigate the impact of these two factors, the authors calculate cost optimized climate neutral energy systems while varying the import price from 1.25 €/kg to 5 €/kg with unlimited import volume and the photovoltaic limit from 300 GW to unlimited. In all scenarios, hydrogen plays a significant role. At a medium import price of 3.75 €/kg and photovoltaic limits of 300–900 GW the hydrogen supply is around 1200 to 1300 TWh with import shares varying from 60 to 85%. In most scenarios the electrolysis profile is highly correlated with the photovoltaic power, which leads to full load hours of 1870 h–2770 h.     

Exploring the feasibility of green hydrogen production using excess energy from a country-scale 100% solar-wind renewable energy system

When planning large-scale 100% renewable energy systems (RES) for the year 2050, the system capacity is usually oversized for better supply-demand matching of electrical energy since solar and wind resources are highly intermittent. This causes excessive excess energy that is typically dissipated, curtailed, or sold directly. The public literature shows a lack of studies on the feasibility of using this excess for country-scale co-generation. This study presents the first investigation of utilizing this excess to generate green hydrogen gas. The concept is demonstrated for Jordan using three solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and hybrid PV-wind RESs, all equipped with Lithium-Ion battery energy storage systems (ESSs), for hydrogen production using a polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) system. The results show that the PV-based system has the highest demand-supply fraction (>99%). However, the wind-based system is more favorable economically, with installed RES, ESS, and PEM capacities of only 23.88 GW, 2542 GWh, and 20.66 GW. It also shows the highest hydrogen annual production rate (172.1 × 10³ tons) and the lowest hydrogen cost (1.082 USD/kg). The three systems were a better option than selling excess energy directly, where they ensure annual incomes up to 2.68 billion USD while having payback periods of as low as 1.78 years. Furthermore, the hydrogen cost does not exceed 2.03 USD/kg, which is significantly lower than the expected cost of hydrogen (3 USD/kg) produced using energy from fossil fuel-based systems in 2050.     

The effect of particle size distribution on the microstructure and properties of Al2O3 ceramics formed by stereolithography

Stereolithography (SL) shows advantages for preparing alumina-based ceramics with complex structures. The effects of the particle size distribution, which strongly influence the sintering properties in ceramic SL, have not been systematically explored until now. Herein, the influence of the particle size distribution on SL-manufactured alumina ceramics was investigated, including bending strength at room temperature, post-sintering shrinkage, porosity, and microstructural morphology. Seven particle size distributions of alumina ceramics were studied (in μm/μm: 30/5, 20/3, 10/2, 5/2, 5/0.8, 3/0.5, and 2/0.3); a coarse:fine particle ratio of 6:4 was maintained. At the same sintering temperature, the degree of sintering was greater for finer particle sizes. The particle size distribution had a larger influence on flexural strength, porosity and shrinkage than sintering temperature when the particle size distribution difference reached 10-fold but was weaker for 10 μm/2 μm, 5 μm/2 μm and 5 μm/0.8 μm. The sintering shrinkage characteristics of cuboid samples with different particle sizes were studied. The use of coarse particles influenced the accuracy of small-scale samples. When the particle size was comparable to the sample width, such as 30 μm/5 μm and 5 mm, the width shrinkage was consistent with the height shrinkage. When the particle size was much smaller than the sample width, such as 2 μm/0.3 μm and 5 mm, the width shrinkage was consistent with the length shrinkage. The results of this study provide meaningful guidance for future research on applications of SL and precise control of alumina ceramics through particle gradation.     

Comparison of co-current and counter-current flow in a bifunctional reactor containing ammonia synthesis and 2-butanol dehydrogenation to MEK

In this study, a multi-tubular thermally coupled packed bed reactor in which simultaneous production of ammonia and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) takes place is simulated. The simulation results are presented in two co-current and counter-current flow modes. Based on this new configuration, the released heat from the ammonia synthesis reaction as an extremely exothermic reaction in the inner tube is employed to supply the required heat for the endothermic 2-butanol dehydrogenation reaction in the outer tube. On the other hand, MEK and hydrogen are produced by the dehydrogenation reaction of 2-butanol in the endothermic side, and the produced hydrogen is used to supply a part of the ammonia synthesis feed in the exothermic side. Thus, 30.72% and 31.88% of the required hydrogen for the ammonia synthesis are provided by the dehydrogenation reaction in the co-current and counter-current configurations, respectively. Also, according to the thermal coupling, the required cooler and furnace for the ammonia synthesis and 2-butanol dehydrogenation conventional plants are eliminated, respectively. As a result, operational costs, energy consumption and furnace emissions are considerably decreased. Finally, a sensitivity analysis and optimization are applied to study the effect of the main process parameters variation on the system performance and obtain the minimum hydrogen make-up flow rate, respectively.     

Transmission system restoration with co-optimization of repairs,load pickups,and generation dispatch

This paper studies the restoration of a transmission system after a significant disruption such as a natural disaster. It considers the co-optimization of repairs, load pickups, and generation dispatch to produce a sequencing of the repairs that minimizes the size of the blackout over time. The core of this process is a Restoration Ordering Problem (ROP), a non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear program that is outside the capabilities of existing solver technologies. To address this computational barrier, the paper examines two approximations of the power flow equations: The DC model and the recently proposed LPAC model. Systematic, large-scale testing indicates that the DC model is not sufficiently accurate for solving the ROP. In contrast, the LPAC power flow model, which captures line losses, reactive power, and voltage magnitudes, is sufficiently accurate to obtain restoration plans that can be converted into AC-feasible power flows. An experimental study also suggests that the LPAC model provides a robust and appealing tradeoff between accuracy and computational performance for solving the ROP.     

（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物的合成及表征

为了开发β受体阻断剂新药（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，采用3-吗啉-4-氯-1，2，5-噻二唑为起始原料，经水解反应得到中间体1（3-吗啉-4-羟基-1，2，5-噻二唑）。中间体1与R-环氧氯丙烷发生醚化反应，经后处理及重结晶得到中间体2 {（R）-4-［4-（环氧乙烷-2-基甲氧基）-1，2，5-噻二唑-3-基］吗啉}。中间体2经胺化反应、马来酸成盐及重结晶得到（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔。（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔经游离、纯水转晶得到符合药典标准的（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，总收率14.05%且e.e.值为99.66%。最终成品经IR、1H-NMR、13C-NMR、MS、TGA、DSC表征，并优化各步反应条件。结果表明:以三乙胺为醚化反应缚酸剂75 ℃反应最佳；以乙醇为胺化反应溶剂46 ℃反应16 h最佳；S-噻吗洛尔的转晶拆分以水作溶剂，比传统不对称合成工艺安全稳定，操作简单，适合工业化生产。     

A modified particle swarm optimization with multiple subpopulations for multimodal function optimization problems

In this paper, a modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is developed for solving multimodal function optimization problems. The difference between the proposed method and the general PSO is to split up the original single population into several subpopulations according to the order of particles. The best particle within each subpopulation is recorded and then applied into the velocity updating formula to replace the original global best particle in the whole population. To update all particles in each subpopulation, the modified velocity formula is utilized. Based on the idea of multiple subpopulations, for the multimodal function optimization the several optima including the global and local solutions may probably be found by these best particles separately. To show the efficiency of the proposed method, two kinds of function optimizations are provided, including a single modal function optimization and a complex multimodal function optimization. Simulation results will demonstrate the convergence behavior of particles by the number of iterations, and the global and local system solutions are solved by these best particles of subpopulations.