Incidence and costs of bicycle-related traumatic brain injuries in the Netherlands

The main cause of death and serious disability in bicycle accidents is traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this population-based study was to assess the incidence and costs of bicycle-related TBI across various age groups, and in comparison to all bicycle-related injuries, to identify main risk groups for the development of preventive strategies.Data from the National Injury Surveillance System and National Medical Registration were used for all patients with bicycle-related injuries and TBI who visited a Dutch emergency department (ED) between 1998 and 2012. Demographics and national, weighted estimates of injury mechanism, injury severity and costs were analysed per age group. Direct healthcare costs and indirect costs were determined using the incidence-based Dutch Burden of Injury Model.Between 1998 and 2012, the incidence of ED treatments due to bicycle-related TBI strongly increased with 54%, to 43 per 100,000 persons in 2012. However, the incidence of all bicycle-related injuries remained stable, from 444 in 1998 to 456/100,000 in 2012. Incidence of hospital admission increased in both TBI (92%) and all injuries from cycling (71%). Highest increase in incidence of both ED treatments and hospital admissions was seen in adults aged 55+. The injury rate of TBI per kilometre travelled increased (44%) except in children, but decreased (−4%) for all injuries, showing a strong decrease in children (−36%) but an increase in men aged 25+, and women aged 15+. Total costs of bicycle-related TBI were €74.5 million annually. Although bicycle-related TBI accounted for 9% of the incidence of all ED treatments due to cycling, it accounted for 18% of the total costs due to all bicycle-related injuries (€410.7 million). Children and adolescents (aged 0–24) had highest incidence of ED treatments due to bicycle-related injuries. Men in the working population (aged 15–64) had highest indirect costs following injuries from cycling, including TBI. Older cyclists (aged 55+) were identified as main risk group for TBI, as they had highest ED attendance, injury rate, injury severity, admission to hospital or intensive care unit, and costs.Incidence of ED treatments due to cycling are high and often involve TBI, imposing a high burden on individuals and society. Older cyclists aged 55+ were identified as main risk group for TBI to be targeted in preventive strategies, due to their high risk for (serious) injuries and ever-increasing share of ED visits and hospital admissions.     

PIXE study on recovery of making-technology of Chinese Longquan celadon made in the Southern Song Dynasty (1127–1279 CE)

Proton induced X-ray emission (PIXE) technique and factor analysis were used to study the recovery of making-technology of Chinese Longquan celadon made in the late Southern Song Dynasty (1127–1279 CE). Based on factor analysis, for the raw material for body and the recipe for glaze, there is a close but slightly different relationship between these Longquan celadons unearthed from the core area of Dayao and the non-core area, despite all the Longquan celadons belong to the high-calcium-glaze system. The chemical compositions of most of the tentative body and glaze samples are very close to those of Longquan celadons unearthed from the core area of Dayao and the non-core area. This study can provide a guidance for recovery of making-technology of Longquan celandon.     

A terrain risk assessment method for military surveillance applications for mobile assets

This study proposes an analytical and flexible terrain risk assessment method for military surveillance applications for mobile assets. Considering the risk as the degree of possibility of insurgent presence, the assessment method offers an efficient evaluation of risk in the surrounding terrain for military combat operating posts or observation posts. The method is designed for unmanned aerial vehicles as the surveillance assets of choice to improve the effectiveness of their use. Starting with the area map and geographical data, the target terrain is first digitized for space representation. Then the data of nine geographical parameters are used to formulate five contributing risk factors. These factors are incorporated in an analytical framework to generate a composite map with risk scores that reveal the potential high-risk spots in the terrain. The proposed method is also applied to a real-life case study of COP Kahler in Afghanistan, which was a target for insurgent attacks in 2008. The results confirm that when evaluated with the developed method, the region that the insurgents used to approach COP Kahler has high concentration of high-risk cells.     

Owner’s Risk Allocation and Contractor’s Role Behavior in a Project: A Parallel-mediation Model

Risk allocation decisions are of critical importance in project management. The present study proposes an explanation for how risk allocation in a contract motivates a contractor to cooperate with a project owner. Theories of risk allocation and trust were used to motivate the research. Using a survey methodology, we collected data concerning 124 construction projects in China. We found that risk allocation influenced the contractor’s role behavior through the contractor’s feeling of being trusted but not the contractor’s trust in the owner. Feeling of being trusted partially mediated the effect of risk allocation on the contractor’s in-role (i.e., contractual) behavior and fully mediated the effect on extra-role behavior. The study introduces a social and psychological view of the impacts of risk allocation to the project and engineering management literature. We contribute to theory by arguing and demonstrating the mediating effect of trust on the relationship between risk allocation and contractor behavior. From a practical standpoint, we conclude that contractual risk allocation has a significant impact on building a trusting relationship between owners and contractors and that contractors who feel trusted perform both contractually mandated actions and actions external to the contract more diligently, resulting in the likelihood of improved outcomes for both parties.     

管道风险管理方法研究

按照管道风险管理的流程分别对管道风险评价、风险控制和决策支持、效能测试和响应进行了论述。针对目前国内管道行业的情况，提出了进行管道风险评价的有效方法及维护措施。着重介绍了国外管道风险可接受标准的情况，作为国内制定管道风险评价标准的参考。     

Sociotechnical systems, risk management, and public health: comparing the North Battleford and Walkerton outbreaks

Accidents in different complex sociotechnical systems are rarely compared using the same theoretical framework for risk management. We conducted a comparative analysis of two Canadian public health disasters involving drinking water distribution systems, the North Battleford Cryptosporidium parvum outbreak in April 2001 and the Walkerton E. coli outbreak in May 2000. Both accidents resulted from a complex interaction between all levels of a complex sociotechnical system. However, the low-level physical and individual factors differed in the two cases, whereas, the high-level governmental and regulatory factors tended to be the same. These findings may have implications for the design of public policies to minimize risk in complex sociotechnical systems.     

秦山核电厂燃耗深度对DNBR限值的影响分析

本文研究了在秦山核电厂批平均卸料燃耗深度超过原定限值的情况下，为保证电厂的安全运行对DNBR限值进行重新确认的问题。研究过程中，综合考虑了由燃耗加深所引起的核焓升因子的变化和棒弯曲这两种效应对DNBR限值的影响。结果表明，对秦山核电厂而言，在批平均卸料燃耗超过原定限值的情况下，维持原DNBR限值不变仍是安全可行的。     

锰铬不锈钢在化工应用中的风险及对策

对聚丙烯二装置丙烯球罐液位计不锈钢螺栓失效的原因进行了分析,结合锰铬不锈钢(200系列)的性能和国内市场上的现状,分析了锰铬不锈钢在化工生产中应用的风险,提出了应对方法。     

Assessing continuous bivariate effects among different groups through nonparametric regression models: An application to breast cancer detection

In many applications, the joint effect of two continuous covariates on the target binary response may vary across groups defined by levels of a given factor. A testing procedure that would enable this type of surface-by-factor interactions to be detected has been designed. To accomplish this goal, a logistic generalized additive model (GAM) with bivariate continuous interactions varying across groups defined by levels of a factor is considered. A local scoring algorithm based on local linear kernel smoothers was implemented to estimate the proposed logistic GAM. Bootstrap resampling techniques were used for the purpose of testing for factor-by-surface interactions. Given the high computational cost involved, binning techniques were used to speed up computation in the estimation and testing processes. The adequacy of the bootstrap-based test was assessed by means of a simulation study. If a factor-by-surface interaction is detected in the model, it is then established that the use of the odds-ratio curves is very useful in obtaining a direct interpretation of the fitted model. The benefits of using this methodology when analyzing real data are illustrated by applying the technique to the outputs produced by a computerized system dedicated to the early detection of breast cancer.