Sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations of epistemic uncertainty

Three applications of sampling-based sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations for epistemic uncertainty in model inputs are described: (i) an initial exploratory analysis to assess model behavior and provide insights for additional analysis; (ii) a stepwise analysis showing the incremental effects of uncertain variables on complementary cumulative belief functions and complementary cumulative plausibility functions; and (iii) a summary analysis showing a spectrum of variance-based sensitivity analysis results that derive from probability spaces that are consistent with the evidence space under consideration.     

Estimating areal means and variances of forest attributes using the k-Nearest Neighbors technique and satellite imagery

The k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) technique has become extremely popular for a variety of forest inventory mapping and estimation applications. Much of this popularity may be attributed to the non-parametric, multivariate features of the technique, its intuitiveness, and its ease of use. When used with satellite imagery and forest inventory plot data, the technique has been shown to produce useful estimates of many forest attributes including forest/non-forest, volume, and basal area. However, variance estimators for quantifying the uncertainty of means or sums of k-NN pixel-level predictions for areas of interest (AOI) consisting of multiple pixels have not been reported. The primary objectives of the study were to derive variance estimators for AOI estimates obtained from k-NN predictions and to compare precision estimates resulting from different approaches to k-NN prediction and different interpretations of those predictions. The approaches were illustrated by estimating proportion forest area, tree volume per unit area, tree basal area per unit area, and tree density per unit area for 10-km AOIs. Estimates obtained using k-NN approaches and traditional inventory approaches were compared and found to be similar. Further, variance estimates based on different interpretations of k-NN predictions were similar. The results facilitate small area estimation and simultaneous and consistent mapping and estimation of multiple forest attributes.     

基于小波多尺度分析的光纤陀螺振动误差分析与建模

针对振动环境对光纤陀螺性能的影响,对某型号的光纤陀螺进行了线振动实验并对实验结果进行了Allan方差分析。利用小波多尺度变换提取了光纤陀螺误差模型中的各误差项,分析并验证了零漂及噪声误差与Allan方差分析误差系数中的量化噪声、角度随机游走以及零偏误差与误差系数中的零偏稳定性、速率随机游走、速率斜坡之间的对应关系。随后利用RBF神经网络对小波多尺度分析提取的零偏误差建立模型并进行了补偿。仿真结果表明,本文提出的方法有效减小了振动环境下各误差项对光纤陀螺性能的影响, Allan方差分析结果中的五个误差系数均有较大下降,其中两项误差系数下降了一个数量级及以上,极大提高了光纤陀螺在振动环境下的输出精度,对光纤陀螺在振动环境下的误差研究具有重要指导意义。     

Application of an improved control-variate scheme to local neoclassical transport simulations

A new radially local neoclassical transport code is developed based on the radially global two-weight δf$\delta f$ Monte Carlo code, FORTEC-3D (Satake et al., 2008). In the collisional two-weight δf$\delta f$ method, the variance of weight increases in time due to the so-called weight spreading, which leads to an increasing numerical noise in long time simulations. A new improved control-variate scheme was proposed by Kleiber et al. (2011) to reduce the variance. We investigate the effectiveness and validity of the new control-variate scheme for a practical collisional transport problem in a plasma described by the drift kinetic equation. It is demonstrated that the new scheme reduces the variance of weight by approximately 75% in an axisymmetric magnetic field configuration. The burst-like behavior of a transport observable caused by a large numerical noise can be avoided. As a result, the time evolution of a transport observable can be successfully smoothed.     

基于逻辑回归模型的木片和树皮的图像识别

为了提高木片生物能的利用率,需要除去木片中的树皮杂质。识别木片和树皮的图像对于实现二者分离具有重要作用。提出一种基于逻辑回归模型来对木片和树皮进行图像识别的算法。算法流程包括计算各种可以描述木片和树皮纹理的参数,利用SAS统计分析出最佳参数,将最佳参数计算所得的样本数据用于SAS LOGISTIC过程得到预测方程,再将预测方程用于逻辑回归模型来实现木片和树皮的图像识别。通过实验可知,最佳参数为灰度方差,该图像识别算法的正确率能达到97.4%。     

一种光斑图像的阈值分割和光斑中心坐标的计算方法

工业测量中经常需要从获取的光斑图像中提取光斑区域,计算光斑中心的坐标。针对光斑图像具有背景区域较暗且面积大,目标(光斑)区域较亮且面积小的特点,提出了一种适用于光斑图像的阈值分割方法,计算单个光斑中心坐标的重心法,以及采用连通区域标记和区域大小排序计算多个光斑中心坐标的方法。与其他阈值分割方法比较后的实验结果表明,所提出的方法可更好地分割光斑图像,与期望的人工选取的阈值最接近,计算得到的光斑中心坐标准确,且运行时间较短。     

基于历史梯度平均方差缩减的协同参数更新方法

随机梯度下降算法(SGD)随机使用一个样本估计梯度,造成较大的方差,使机器学习模型收敛减慢且训练不稳定。该文提出一种基于方差缩减的分布式SGD,命名为DisSAGD。该方法采用历史梯度平均方差缩减来更新机器学习模型中的参数,不需要完全梯度计算或额外存储,而是通过使用异步通信协议来共享跨节点的参数。为了解决全局参数分发存在的“更新滞后”问题,该文采用具有加速因子的学习速率和自适应采样策略：一方面当参数偏离最优值时,增大加速因子,加快收敛速度;另一方面,当一个工作节点比其他工作节点快时,为下一次迭代采样更多样本,使工作节点有更多时间来计算局部梯度。实验表明：DisSAGD显著减少了循环迭代的等待时间,加速了算法的收敛,其收敛速度比对照方法更快,在分布式集群中可以获得近似线性的加速。     

Comparing the Slack-Variable Mixture Model With Other Alternatives

There have been many linear regression models proposed to analyze mixture experiments including the Scheffé model, the slack-variable model, and the Kronecker model. The use of the slack-variable model is somewhat controversial within the mixture experiment research community. However, in situations that the slack-variable ingredient is used to fill in the formulation and the remaining ingredients have constraints such that they can be chosen independently of one another, the slack-variable model is extremely popular by practitioners mainly due to the ease of interpretation. In this article, we advocate that for some mixture experiments the slack-variable model has appealing properties including numerical stability and better prediction accuracy when model-term selection is performed. We also explain how the effects of the slack-variable model components should be interpreted and how easy it is for practitioners to understand the components effects. We also investigate how to choose the slack-variable component, what transformation should be used to reduce collinearity, and under what circumstances the slack-variable model should be preferred. Both simulation and practical examples are provided to support the conclusions.     

Monte Carlo and variance reduction methods for structural reliability analysis: A comprehensive review

Monte Carlo methods have attracted constant and even increasing attention in structural reliability analysis with a wide variety of developments seamlessly presented over decades. Along the way, a number of specialized reviews and benchmark studies have been provided from time to time, aiming at summarizing and comparing selected few approaches in detail, mainly from an implementation point of view. In contrast, the aim of the present survey is to play a comprehensive role as a methodological guidebook on Monte Carlo simulation and its related, especially variance reduction, techniques through a covering of 444 references in the relevant literature. To achieve this goal, we present an extensive review of formulations and techniques along with insightful summaries of developments of existing numerical methods, ranging from the general formulation, sub-categories and variants, to their combined uses with other simulation techniques and surrogate models, as well as the key advantages and assumptions.     

随机模拟技术在储层预测中的应用

随机模拟是一种基于地质统计学的储层预测方法,将井资料和波阻抗反演结果联合进行模拟,可以提高预测的精度,适用于滚动勘探开发初期及中后期。本次应用在对储层测井响应特征和物性参数分析的基础上,通过直方、变差分析,选择合理的反演参数,进行随机模拟,进而预测储层的分布规律,实际应用表明,随机模拟方法可提高储层反演的分辨率。