基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

Classification of the cardiotocogram data for anticipation of fetal risks using machine learning techniques

The aim of the research is evaluating the classification performances of eight different machine-learning methods on the antepartum cardiotocography (CTG) data. The classification is necessary to predict newborn health, especially for the critical cases. Cardiotocography is used for assisting the obstetricians’ to obtain detailed information during the pregnancy as a technique of measuring fetal well-being, essentially in pregnant women having potential complications. The obstetricians describe CTG shortly as a continuous electronic record of the baby's heart rate took from the mother's abdomen. The acquired information is necessary to visualize unhealthiness of the embryo and gives an opportunity for early intervention prior to happening a permanent impairment to the embryo. The aim of the machine learning methods is by using attributes of data obtained from the uterine contraction (UC) and fetal heart rate (FHR) signals to classify as pathological or normal. The dataset contains 1831 instances with 21 attributes, examined by applying the methods. In the paper, the highest accuracy displayed as 99.2%.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物的合成及表征

为了开发β受体阻断剂新药（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，采用3-吗啉-4-氯-1，2，5-噻二唑为起始原料，经水解反应得到中间体1（3-吗啉-4-羟基-1，2，5-噻二唑）。中间体1与R-环氧氯丙烷发生醚化反应，经后处理及重结晶得到中间体2 {（R）-4-［4-（环氧乙烷-2-基甲氧基）-1，2，5-噻二唑-3-基］吗啉}。中间体2经胺化反应、马来酸成盐及重结晶得到（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔。（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔经游离、纯水转晶得到符合药典标准的（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，总收率14.05%且e.e.值为99.66%。最终成品经IR、1H-NMR、13C-NMR、MS、TGA、DSC表征，并优化各步反应条件。结果表明:以三乙胺为醚化反应缚酸剂75 ℃反应最佳；以乙醇为胺化反应溶剂46 ℃反应16 h最佳；S-噻吗洛尔的转晶拆分以水作溶剂，比传统不对称合成工艺安全稳定，操作简单，适合工业化生产。     

改进HSR-FCN的服装图像识别分类算法研究

目前网络上的服装图像数量增长迅猛，对于大量服装图像实现智能分类的需求日益增加。将基于区域的全卷积网络（Region-Based Fully Convolutional Networks，R-FCN）引入到服装图像识别中，针对服装图像分类中网络训练时间长、形变服装图像识别率低的问题，提出一种新颖的改进框架HSR-FCN。新框架将R-FCN中的区域建议网络和HyperNet网络相融合，改变图片特征学习方式，使得HSR-FCN可以在更短的训练时间内达到更高的准确率。在模型中引入了空间转换网络，对输入服装图像和特征图进行了空间变换及对齐，加强了对多角度服装和形变服装的特征学习。实验结果表明，改进后的HSR-FCN模型有效地加强了对形变服装图像的学习，且在训练时间更短的情况下，比原来的网络模型R-FCN平均准确率提高了大约3个百分点，达到96.69%。     

Prediction of risk factors of cyberbullying-related words in Korea: Application of data mining using social big data

The study examined a decision tree analysis using social big data to conduct the prediction model on types of risk factors related to cyberbullying in Korea. The study conducted an analysis of 103,212 buzzes that had noted causes of cyberbullying and data were collected from 227 online channels, such as news websites, blogs, online groups, social network services, and online bulletin boards. Using opinion-mining method and decision tree analysis, the types of cyberbullying were sorted using SPSS 25.0. The results indicated that the total rate of types of cyberbullying in Korea was 44%, which consisted of 32.3% victims, 6.4% perpetrators, and 5.3% bystanders. According to the results, the impulse factor was also the greatest influence on the prediction of the risk factors and the propensity for dominance factor was the second greatest factor predicting the types of risk factors. In particular, the impulse factor had the most significant effect on bystanders, and the propensity for dominance factor was also significant in influencing online perpetrators. It is necessary to develop a program to diminish the impulses that were initiated by bystanders as well as victims and perpetrators because many of those bystanders have tended to aggravate impulsive cyberbullying behaviors.     

平面并联机构工作空间的三维螺旋扫描CAD求解

针对平面并联机构无奇异位置工作空间求解困难、过程繁琐、计算量大等问题，提出了基于CAD求解平面并联机构工作空间的三维螺旋扫描方法。将[n]自由度平面并联机构分解成[n]条支链进行独立分析，得到每条支链下末端执行器的可达区域，再将所有支链可达区域取交集即为平面并联机构工作空间。应用SolidWorks软件建立平面并联机构模型，进行几何特征处理，通过自动求解器求解，将求解过程图形化，快速得到同轴布局5R机构和平面3-RPR并联机构的无奇异位置工作空间。通过同轴布局5R机构的运动学实验，验证了该求解方法的可行性。     

一种抗运动干扰的实时心率提取方法

针对基于容积脉搏波（PPG）提取运动心率时，传统心率提取算法由于运动噪声干扰使测量结果误差大、实时性不好的问题，提出一种抗运动干扰的实时心率提取方法。该方法通过实时小波去噪，同时结合三轴加速度信号（ACC）对运动进行分类训练，计算各运动状态心率增益，对实时心率值进行补偿。实验结果表明，通过与同时采集的ECG信号计算出的实时心率进行对比，绝对误差率仅为1.2%左右。相比传统心率提取算法，该算法具有抗干扰性强，实时准确的特点。