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I argue that psychologists interested in human causal judgment should understand and adopt a representation of causal mechanisms by directed graphs that encode conditional independence (screening off) relations. I illustrate the benefits of that representation, now widely used in computer science and increasingly in statistics, by (i) showing that a dispute in psychology between mechanist and associationist psychological theories of causation rests on a false and confused dichotomy; (ii) showing that a recent, much-cited experiment, purporting to show that human subjects, incorrectly let large causes overshadow small causes, misrepresents the most likely, and warranted, causal explanation available to the subjects, in the light of which their responses were normative; (iii) showing how a recent psychological theory (due to P. Cheng) of human judgment of causal power can be considerably generalized: and (iv) suggesting a range of possible experiments comparing human and computer abilities to extract causal information from associations. 相似文献
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Bentley T 《Applied ergonomics》2009,40(2):175-180
The vast majority of the published workplace slips, trips and falls (STF) literature is exceedingly narrow in its focus and often ignores wider systems issues in workplace STF aetiology. There is little recognition within the published literature of the importance of latent failures or the upstream organisational and cultural contexts within which workplace STF occur. This is unfortunate, as a systems approach to workplace STF analysis, that is inclusive of latent design and work organisation factors that often shape worker behaviour patterns related to STF risk (e.g. rushing, risk taking), is fundamental to the development of effective prevention measures. The aims of this paper are to provide an understanding of workplace STF causation that is cognisant of the potential role of both active and latent failures in STF causation. The paper presents an ergonomics model for workplace STF analysis that highlights information processing in STF aetiology, the STF incident process and the interaction between latent and active failures in STF causation. The paper draws upon ergonomics research conducted in a range of occupational contexts to illustrate the key features of the model as it applies to workplace STF. Implications of the model for analysis and prevention of STF are discussed. 相似文献
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《Ergonomics》2012,55(6):688-709
The present study developed risk assessment models for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) which can provide information of the likelihood of developing CTS for an individual having certain personal characteristics and occupational risks. A case-referent study was conducted consisting of two case groups and one referent group: (1) 22 work-related CTS patients (W-CTS), (2) 25 non-work related CTS patients (NW-CTS), and (3) 50 healthy workers (HEALTHY) having had no CTS history. The classification of CTS patients into one of the case groups was determined according to the type of insurance covering their medical costs. Personal characteristics, psychosocial stresses at work, and physical work conditions were surveyed by using a questionnaire tailor-designed to CTS (reliability of each scale ? 0.7). By contrasting the risk information of each case group to that of the referent group, three logistic regression models were developed: W-CTS/HEALTHY, NW-CTS/HEALTHY, and C-CTS/HEALTHY (C-CTS, the combined group of W-CTS and NW-CTS). ROC analysis indicated that the models have satisfactory discriminability (d′ = ;1.91 to 2.51) and high classification accuracy (overall accuracy = 83 – 89%). Both W-CTS/HEALTHY and C-CTS/HEALTHY include personal and physical factors, while NW-CTS/HEALTHY involves only personal factors. This suggests that the injury causation of NW-CTS patients should be attributable mainly to their ‘high’ personal susceptibility to the disorder rather than exposure to adverse work conditions, while that of W-CTS patients be attributable to improper work conditions and CTS-prone personal characteristics in combination. 相似文献
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Distraction and inattention are considered to be very important and prevalent factors in the causation of road accidents. There have been many recent research studies which have attempted to understand the circumstances under which a driver becomes distracted or inattentive and how distraction/inattention can be prevented. Both factors are thought to have become more important in recent times partly due to the evolution of in-vehicle information and communication technology. This study describes a methodology that was developed to understand when factors such as distraction and inattention may have been contributors to crashes and also describes some of the consequences of distraction and inattention in terms of subsequent driver actions. 相似文献
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王媛 《中国水能及电气化》2007,(10):53-54
YT—1000型调速器由于生产于上世纪80年代,受当时技术条件限制,设备存在缺陷,主接力器漏油现象比较严重。作者就主接力器漏油的成因进行分析,并提出相应处理对策。同时针对众多水电站调速器减速齿轮用油问题提出意见。 相似文献
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