Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

Computer support for strategic organizational decision-making

While information systems continue to be promoted within organizations as tools to support strategic decision-making, there is growing concern over the ability of such systems to model the social and political complexity of the situations to which they are being applied. This paper examines the nature of organizational decision-making and the use of computer-based systems to support this activity. The debate queries the extent to which such artifacts should be allowed to become enmeshed and embedded within the strategic decision-making activities of organizations which operate within increasingly complex environments.     

DSS research and practice in perspective

The aim of this paper is to assess the state-of-the-art in the Decision Support Systems (DSS) field from both a research and a practice perspective. Three main dimensions of DSS research and practice are addressed: 1) supporting human decision-making processes, 2) integrating DSS into the organizational context, and 3) identifying new application domains. The related analysis and discussion provides a better understanding of past developments in the DSS field and insights into future evolution patterns.     

利用数据中心构建数字化钻井施工模式

世界石油钻井技术不断向信息化、智能化方向发展,为适应钻井技术的发展,构建了数字化钻井施工模式框架。从井场信息采集设施、井场网络环境、井场信息采集处理软件、井场工程监测软件等方面阐述了数字化钻井队的构建方法,从钻井数据库设计、数据流向及数据加载、数据发布等方面阐述了钻井数据中心的构成,从钻井设计系统、钻井远程监测系统、井眼轨迹控制系统以及专家系统等方面描述了钻井辅助决策平台主要功能。除了理论研究之外,还简要介绍了研究成果在现场的应用情况。这些研究成果是国内"数字油田"建设的基础,必将促进钻井行业的信息技术发展。     

经济边际在油气资源勘探开发中的应用方法研究

油气资源勘探开发的经济边际分析是从石油企业的边际利润出发，确定石油企业的最优投入产出水平，为作出科学的投资决策和生产决策提供依据，界定了有关油气资源勘探开发经济边际的概念和内涵，探讨了石油企业边际成本和边际收入的确定方法。     

Assessing the relative priority of projects

Where there are a large number of projects competing for a limited pool of resources, projects have to be assigned priorities to determine which should proceed and which should be curtailed. The traditional economic procedures for assessing the relative priority of projects are reviewed, and alternative methods of ranking projects are suggested, with particular emphasis on methods that are inexpensive and easy to use.     

The effects of individual differences,prior experience and cognitive load on the transfer of dynamic decision-making performance

Situational awareness is recognised as an important factor in the performance of individuals and teams in dynamic decision-making (DDM) environments (Salmon et al. 2014 Salmon, P. M., N. A.Stanton, G. H.Walker, D.Jenkins, D.Ladva, L.Rafferty, and M.Young. 2014. “Measuring SA in Complex Systems: Comparison of Measurement Study.” International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics39: 490–500.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The present study was designed to investigate whether the scores on the WOMBAT? Situational Awareness and Stress Tolerance Test (Roscoe and North 1980 Roscoe, S. N., and R.North. 1980. “Prediction of Pilot Performance.” In Aviation Psychology, edited by S. N.Roscoe, 123–127. Ames: The Iowa State University Press. [Google Scholar]) would predict the transfer of DDM performance from training under different levels of cognitive load to a novel situation. Participants practised a simulated firefighting task under either low or high conditions of cognitive load and then performed a (transfer) test in an alternative firefighting environment under an intermediate level of cognitive load. WOMBAT? test scores were a better predictor of DDM performance than scores on the Raven Matrices. Participants with high WOMBAT? scores performed better regardless of their training condition. Participants with recent gaming experience who practised under low cognitive load showed better practice phase performance but worse transfer performance than those who practised under high cognitive load.

Practitioner Summary: The relationship between task experience, situational awareness ability, cognitive load and the transfer of dynamic decision-making (DDM) performance was investigated. Results showed that the WOMBAT? test predicted transfer of DDM performance regardless of task cognitive load. The effects of cognitive load on performance varied according to previous task-relevant experience.     

多传感器数据采集系统中的数据融合研究

针对多传感器数据采集系统的准确性与可靠性的要求,提出了单传感器分批估计融合与模糊理论中的相关性函数与加权自适应算法相结合的数据融合方法。首先,对每一只传感器进行分批估计融合,得到了较为可靠的局部决策值。然后,利用模糊理论中的相关性函数,计算出每只传感器与其它传感器的相关程度,并剔除掉那些相关程度较低的传感器的局部决策值。最后,在权的最优分配原则下,利用加权自适应算法对剩下的局部决策值进行数据融合。该方法能在数据先验知识未知的情况下,客观地反映各个传感器的可靠程度。数据分析结果表明:与同类融合方法相比,该方法具有更高的精度。     

群决策中基于语言评价信息的TOPSIS方法

针对基于语言评价信息的群决策问题,提出了一种新的TOPSIS方法。依据传统的TOPSIS方法的基本思路,首先将语言决策矩阵转换为规范决策矩阵;其次,通过变量转换关系对有序语言短语集中的有序语言短语进行"量化",构造与原语言决策矩阵"等价的导出"决策矩阵,并利用算术加权平均算法对所得到的导出决策矩阵进行群的集结;然后对所得到的决策矩阵构造理想点和负理想点,计算每个方案的相对接近度,根据得到的相对接近度对方案进行排序从而确定最优方案。最后通过一个算例说明了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

影响旅游者决策的相关情境因素分析——以大唐芙蓉园为例

以大唐芙蓉园为例,对以西安为旅游目的地的游客抽样调查,应用调查数据和LD—gistic模型分析了影响旅游者决策的17个情境变量。结果表明有6个情境变量和2个控制变量对旅游者决策影响显著。同时逐步具体分析这些变量对“游客是否游览大唐芙蓉园”的作用。最后讨论了研究结果的应用。