建筑工业化发展的多群体演化博弈与仿真研究

新型建筑工业化具有高质量、低消耗、可循环发展等特征，其推广已上升到国家战略层面。利用演化博弈方法，建立“政府-开发商-银行” 的三方动态演化博弈模型，进行各博弈主体策略的演化稳定性分析，并针对初始状态、奖惩力度、借贷风险和开发成本等对演化结果的影响进行动态仿真。在此基础上， 考虑开发商群体的网络拓扑特征对演化真实性的影响，引入复杂网络理论， 以无标度网络为载体描述开发商个体的连接偏好和决策机制，构建政府监管下的建筑工业化扩散模型，并通过仿真深入研究相关因素对扩散深度的影响作用，最后结合仿真结果给出相应对策建议。     

Cognitive abilities,digital games and arithmetic performance enhancement: A study comparing the effects of a math game and paper exercises

Besides entertainment, games have shown to have the potential to impact a broader variety of cognitive abilities. Research has consistently shown that several aspects in cognition such as visual short-memory, multitasking and spatial skills can be enhanced by game play. In a previous study, it was found that playing Monkey Tales, a game aimed at training arithmetic skills, helped second grade pupils to increase their accuracy in mental calculation as compared to paper exercises. In this follow up study we explore whether traditional methods and game training differ in terms of the cognitive processes that both are able to impact. We incorporated standardized measures of working memory and visuo-motor skills. Additionally, the mathematics game was modified and its contents extracted to allow precise comparison between the gaming and paper exercises condition. Thus each single math exercise, type of question (e.g., multiple choice), quantity and order was perfectly matched in the game training and the traditional training conditions. Gains in arithmetical performance, and self-reported measures of enjoyment were also investigated. We found some evidence suggesting that arithmetic performance enhancement induced by game play and paper exercises differ not only in terms of enjoyment but also of working memory capacity improvements.     

Industrial sugar beets to biofuel: Field to fuel production system and cost estimates

Specialized varieties of sugar beets (Beta vulgaris L.) may be an eligible feedstock for advanced biofuel designation under the USA Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. These non-food industrial beets could double ethanol production per hectare compared to alternative feedstocks. A mixed-integer mathematical programming model was constructed to determine the breakeven price of ethanol produced from industrial beets, and to determine the optimal size and biorefinery location. The model, based on limited field data, evaluates Southern Plains beet production in a 3-year crop rotation, and beet harvest, transportation, and processing. The optimal strategy depends critically on several assumptions including a just-in-time harvest and delivery system that remains to be tested in field trials. Based on a wet beet to ethanol conversion rate of 110 dm³ Mg⁻¹ and capital cost of 128 M$ for a 152 dam³ y⁻¹ biorefinery, the estimated breakeven ethanol price was 507 $ m⁻³. The average breakeven production cost of corn (Zea mays L.) grain ethanol ranged from 430 to 552 $ m⁻³ based on average net corn feedstock cost of 254 and 396 $ m⁻³ in 2014 and 2013, respectively. The estimated net beet ethanol delivered cost of 207 $ m⁻³ was lower than the average net corn feedstock cost of 254–396$ m⁻³ in 2013 and 2014. If for a mature industry, the cost to process beets was equal to the cost to process corn, the beet breakeven ethanol price would be $387 m^-3 (587 $ m⁻³ gasoline equivalent).     

A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.     

Mixed coordination mechanisms for scheduling games on hierarchical machines

In this paper, we study scheduling games under mixed coordination mechanisms on hierarchical machines. The two scheduling policies involved are ‐ and ‐, where ‐ (resp., ‐) policy sequences jobs in nondecreasing order of their hierarchies, and jobs of the same hierarchy in nonincreasing (resp., nondecreasing) order of their processing times. We first show the existence of a Nash equilibrium. Then we present the price of anarchy and the price of stability for the games with social costs of minimizing the makespan and maximizing the minimum machine load. All the bounds given in this paper are tight.     

一种军棋机器博弈的多棋子协同博弈方法

针对在军棋博弈不完全信息对弈中，面对棋子不同价值、不同位置、不同搭配所产生的不同棋力，传统的单子意图搜索算法，不能满足棋子之间的协同性与沟通性，同时也缺乏对敌方的引诱与欺骗等高级对抗能力。本文提出一种结合UCT搜索策略的高价值棋子博弈方法，实现高价值棋子协同博弈的策略。实战经验表明:高价值多棋子军棋协同博弈策略优于单棋子军棋博弈策略。     

基于承包商预期收益不变的不平衡报价模型

在招标实践中,通常采用最低价中标原则,使得投标人不得不压低其投标价格。基于承包商预期收益不变的不平衡报价模型,是在“工程量清单报价”的条件下,考虑到施工中工程量的变化及施工顺序的影响,体现了资金的时间价值,在保持承包商预期收益不变的前提下,通过调整各分项工程的单价,来降低工程报价,以增加中标机会而建立的。所建立的模型简单,易于操作,并配以具体的工程实例,通过计算机求得其最优解,可供承包商投标报价时参考。     

我国水权交易博弈定价决策机理

结合水权交易双方的效用函数，基于博弈原理及方法分别建立了水权交易准市场阶段和水市场阶段的水权交易博弈定价模型，并对水市场定价模型的纳什均衡解进行了探讨；基于定价相关要素间关系的探讨，解析了准市场阶段和水市场阶段水权交易定价决策机理，结果认为水权交易双方存在利益冲突，并且准市场阶段水权交易定价相对较低，水市场阶段水权交易定价相对较高。     

移动运营商手机游戏业务的战略定位和发展策略探讨

分析了韩国、日本及国内运营商手机游戏业务的发展状况．探讨了手机游戏业务的模式．论述了该业务的战略定位和市场前景。从地区提供给移动通信市场对外部环境、产业链的准备是否充分以及运营商内部的资源和运营状况等三个方面阐明了手机游戏业务发展的关键因素。     

The Application of the Theory of the Price Elasticity of Demand to the EMS Management

1　Introduction　ExpressMailService (EMS )wasopenedupbyChinaPostintheearly 80stomeettheneedsofeco nomicdevelopment.It sthemostcompetitiveoneofthepostservices.There recivilaviation ,Chinarail wayandotherprivateexpressdeliverycompaniesdomesticallyandUPS ,TNT ,DHLandTEDEXcompetingwithEMSintheinternationalmarket.OneofthemostpowerfulcompeteweaponofthesecompaniesisthelowerpricethanEMS[1 ] .BecauseofthefiercecompetitionEMSdeclinedfromthemo nopolistindomesticandinternationalmarketoftheear…