Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Corrosion behavior of under‐, peak‐, and over‐aged 6063 alloy: A comparative study

The mechanical property of age‐hardenable Al‐alloys is governed by the state of ageing, which determines the microstructure and consequently, their corrosion behavior which is a vital aspect for a number of applications. This article presents a comparative assessment of corrosion behavior of under‐, peak‐ and over‐aged Al‐Mg‐Si alloy. Corrosion characteristics have been determined via immersion tests in 0.1 M ortho‐phosphoric acid solution and intergranular corrosion (IGC) tests. Corroded surfaces are examined by field emission scanning electron micrographs‐energy dispersive spectroscopy and 3D optical profilometer. The obtained results reveal that the corrosion rate at a specific immersion time as well as the depth of IGC increases in the order for under‐, peak‐, and over‐aged states. Irrespective of the state of ageing, corrosion loss increases linearly but the rate of corrosion decreases rapidly with increasing immersion time. The dominant mode of corrosion in under‐aged alloy is identified as localized pitting, while peak‐aged is highly susceptible to IGC in contrast extensive pitting corrosion is observed for over‐aged alloy. The observed differences in corrosion behavior are explained considering characteristics of precipitates. Formation of β (Mg₂Si) in case of over‐aged alloy and presence of inclusions like AlFeMnSi particles are found to accelerate pitting corrosion.     

Transport Map sampling with PGD model reduction for fast dynamical Bayesian data assimilation

The motivation of this work is to address real-time sequential inference of parameters with a full Bayesian formulation. First, the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) is used to reduce the computational evaluation of the posterior density in the online phase. Second, Transport Map sampling is used to build a deterministic coupling between a reference measure and the posterior measure. The determination of the transport maps involves the solution of a minimization problem. As the PGD model is quasi-analytical and under a variable separation form, the use of gradient and Hessian information speeds up the minimization algorithm. Eventually, uncertainty quantification on outputs of interest of the model can be easily performed due to the global feature of the PGD solution over all coordinate domains. Numerical examples highlight the performance of the method.     

Distributed learning consensus control based on neural networks for heterogeneous nonlinear multiagent systems

This paper considers a novel distributed iterative learning consensus control algorithm based on neural networks for the control of heterogeneous nonlinear multiagent systems. The system's unknown nonlinear function is approximated by suitable neural networks; the approximation error is countered by a robust term in the control. Two types of control algorithms, both of which utilize distributed learning laws, are provided to achieve consensus. In the provided control algorithms, the desired reference is considered to be an unknown factor and then estimated using the associated learning laws. The consensus convergence is proven by the composite energy function method. A numerical simulation is ultimately presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed control schemes.     

Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work

The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers, for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The first line uses static models and the second dynamic models. In this dynamic line most of the results are confined to models with a single state and a single control variable. In this paper we want to encourage the analysis of more general dynamic cases. To do so, the results in the dynamic line are extended from one-state and one-control finite horizon models to models with a pair of control variables. We then discuss some of the hurdles which must be surmounted for the results to be made more general and suggests some lines for further research. JEL classification: C61; E61     

运行电站爆破震动控制研究

结合大渡河龚咀水电站下游河床整治爆破开挖拓宽，重点研究了爆破震动对运行电站机组及其仪表的影响，探讨了爆破震动安全判据和控制标准，用了若干实际工程采用的经验指标进行对比分析，所得结论意见可供同类工程作为爆震安全控制参考。     

高功率脉冲水中放电的应用及其发展

首先介绍了高功率脉冲水下放电的机理，然后综合论述了其应用和研究的状况，从较为成熟的脉冲水处理技术到医疗领域的ESWL应用技术，以及在脉冲电场食品杀菌和水下目标探测方面的最新发展和研究，最后指出了高功率脉冲电技术应用前景以及进行更系统和深入研究的必要性。