投影寻踪模型在油气开发项目经济评价中的应用

针对油气开发项目经济评价参数较多的特性，综合投影寻踪方法和加速遗传算法的优势，构建了投影寻踪评价模型。首先根据油气开发项目经济评价的决策矩阵信息，利用投影寻踪方法，把具有开发方案和经济评价指标的多维决策矩阵通过某种组合投影到低维子空间上，采用投影目标函数来衡量投影暴露某种决策结构的可能性大小；然后利用遗传算法全局寻优的特点，寻找出使投影指标函数达到最优的投影值; 最后根据投影函数值的大小评价出方案优劣，从而为项目决策者提供一些依据，做出最终决策。胜利油田孤东七区中稠油区开发项目方案评价的实际应用表明，投影寻踪评价模型应用效果符合客观实际，可供借鉴。

APPLICATIONS OF PROJECTION PURSUIT METHOD IN ECONOMICAL APPRAISALS OF OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

As oil and gas development project has a lot of economical appraisal parameters, projection pursuit appraisal model was established by combining the advantages of projection pursuit method and accelerating genetic algorithm (AGA). Firstly, project the multidimensional decision matrix to a low dimension subspace via certain combination. This can be done on the basis of decision matrix information of economical appraisal of oil and gas development project and through projection pursuit method. Projection object function can be taken to evaluate the possibility of the exposure of certain decision structure. Then find the projection value which can optimize the projection index function via the whole optimization characteristic of AGA. Finally, evaluate the proposal according to projection function value, which can provide evidences for project operator to make final decision. The on-site application of project development appraisal in moderate heavy oil block of Gudong-7 block, Shengli Oilfield, demonstrated that the application of projection pursuit appraisal model was completely in line with the real situation. Thus, the application can be taken as a reference for the like-kind situations.