Natural gas consumption and climate: a comprehensive set of predictive state-level models for the United States |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Chemistry, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207, United States;2. Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207, United States;1. School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, N0. 29 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China;2. Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resource, Beijing, China;3. Lab of Resources and Environmental Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, China;1. College of Humanities and Administrative Science, Jouf University, Saudi Arabia.Lamided, University of Sousse, Sousse, 4023, Tunisia;2. College of Humanities and Administrative Sciences, Jouf University, Jouf 2005, Saudi Arabia;3. Higher Institute of Computer Science and Management of Kairouan, Avenue Khemais El Alouini, Kairouan, 3100, Tunisia;1. Academy of Economic Studies, Piaţa Romană nr. 6, Bucharest 010374, Romania;2. Institute of National Economy, Calea 13 Septembrie nr.13, Bucharest 050711, Romania |
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| Abstract: | Separate models correlating natural gas (NG) consumption to climate have been developed for the residential and commercial sectors of the 50 U.S. states. The models relate a population-weighted average temperature to state per capita NG consumption on a monthly basis. The majority of the models have Pearson correlation coefficients greater than 0.90 supporting the use of temperature as the sole independent parameter. The sensitivities of the models to a 1°C increase in temperature, are compared for each state and the monthly sensitivity to climate integrated over the entire U.S. is investigated for a range of temperature perturbations. The predicted impact of a 1°C increase in mean monthly temperature on U.S. consumption is an 8.1% decrease in the residential sector and a 5.9% decrease in the commercial sector. In terms of the net consumption normalized over the study period (1984–1993) this corresponds to a 111.8 TWh decrease in the residential sector and a 47.0 TWh decrease in the commercial sector. The largest change for a single month occurs in January when consumption would decrease 19.7 TWh in the residential sector and 7.4 TWh in the commercial sector. |
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