“十一五”期间我国交通部门能源需求展望及节能潜力分析

本文首先介绍了我国交通用能展望和节能潜力分析的基本思路和方法,然后对"十一五"期间,交通部门在规划方案(7.5%的GDP增速)和高经济增长方案(9%的GDP增速)下的节能潜力、可能完成的节能量做了详细的定量分析和比较研究;最后在此基础上梳理、归纳了几点结论和建议。

Prospects of Energy Use and Energy-saving Potential Analysis of China's Transport Sector during the 11 th Five-year Plan

The methodology of China’s transport energy use and its potential energy conservation are addressed in the paper. And then, two scenarios are designed for China’s energy development of transport sector during the period of 11th five-year plan in order to make an in-depth analysis of potential energy conservation, i.e., the reference scenario of 7.5% GDP growth rate and the scenario of high GDP growth rate. Finally, the preliminary findings and conclusions relating future China’s energy issues of transport sector are proposed on the base of the above scenario analysis.