基于证据推理的预警反击作战体系保障能力评估方法

为研究预警反击作战体系保障能力评估问题，参照美国国防部体系结构框架方法构建评估指标体系，基于置信规则库建立保障能力评估模型。应用所建模型对某单位进行评估，得出评估结果并进行分析。结果表明：基于置信规则库的保障能力评估方法能够有效处理体系保障能力评估面临的信息不确定性问题；不同指标水平提升对体系保障能力水平提升的程度不同；通过评估与分析预警反击作战体系保障能力，能够精确识别预警反击作战体系保障能力的短板，从而针对性地提出改进建议。

Support Capability Evaluation Method for Early-warning Counter-attack System of Systems Based on Evidential Reasoning

For the evaluation of support capability of early-warning counter-attack combat system, the DoDAF method is used to establish an evaluation index system, and a support capability evaluation model is presented based on the belief rule base. The proposed model was used to evaluate the support capability of a unit, and the evaluated results were analyzed. The research results show that the support capability evaluation method based on the belief rule base can be used to effectively deal with the information uncertainty problem faced by the system support capability evaluation, and the improvement in different index levels has different effects on the degree of improvement in the system support capability. The weaknesses of the early-warning counter-attack system support capability can be accurately identified through the evaluation and analysis of the early-warning and counter-attack system support capability.