随机组合约束下的联合火力打击弹药需求预测模型

针对联合火力打击背景下弹药需求预测难的问题，基于武器装备对抗的损失交换比确定不同装备打击不同目标的有效战斗力指数，将有效战斗力指数大小作为衡量敌方目标对我方装备威胁度高低的评判标准，为弹药需求预测提供基本依据。按照对敌最大毁伤原则，建立以最大综合战斗力指数为目标函数的联合火力打击弹药需求预测模型。根据弹药需求量的影响因素设定多种约束条件，结合作战实际及战场态势对约束条件进行随机组合，并运用智能优化算法求解模型。结果表明：该方法合理有效、可操作性强，符合联合火力打击特点，实现了装备-弹药-目标最优编组模式下的弹药需求预测，为未来高技术战争的弹药需求预测开拓了新思路。

Demand Forecasting Model for Joint Fire Strike Ammunition under Stochastic Combination Constraints

For the ammunition demand forecast under joint firepower strike, the effective combat effectiveness indexes of different equipment against different targets are determined based on the loss-exchange ratio of weapon-equipment confrontation. The effective combat effectiveness index is taken as a criterion to evaluate the threat of enemy targets to friend equipment, and provide an essential basis for ammunition demand forecasting. According to the principle of maximum damage to enemy, an joint firepower strike ammunition demand forecasting model with the maximum comprehensive combat effectiveness index as the objective function is established. A variety of constraints are set according to the influencing factors of ammunition demand, the constraints are randomly combined according to the actual combat situation, and the intelligent optimization algorithm is used to solve the model. The result shows that the proposed method is reasonable, effective and operable, and represents the characteristics of joint firepower strike. The demand forecasting of joint fire strike ammunition under the optimal equipment-ammunition-target formation mode is realized.