住房消费中住房公积金的贡献度——以典型城市为例的实证研究

住房公积金制度是我国政策性住房金融体系的核心,先后经历了支持住房建设、支持住房需求和制度完善等三个阶段,成为城镇职工住房保障体系的重要组成部分.本文试图对公积金的住房保障功能进行定量测度,建立了住房公积金的住房消费贡献度模型,并以上海、杭州、湖州、常州和重庆等典型城市2006年度的市场统计数据为基础,对这些城市住房消费中住房公积金的贷款贡献度、还款贡献度、利息节省率和家庭月收入还贷率进行了测算和比较,分析了它们与房价、家庭收入、公积金缴存比例和贷款最高限额等因素的关系,并据此提出了建立公积金政策与房价、家庭收入水平联动机制,中央与地方共同确定公积金贷款与商业贷款利差,严控公积金月缴存额上下限等政策建议.

Contribution Degree of Housing Provident Fund to Households'''' Housing Consumption Taking Five Typical Cities as Examples

Housing Provident Fund (HPF) policy is the footstone of Chinese public housing finance system. HPF experienced its earlier establishing stage of supporting housing development, medium stage of supporting house purchase and the current stage of further improvement, and has become an important component of housing welfare system in China. This paper aims to investigate the contribution degree of HPF to the whole housing welfare system. A model of contribution degree of HPF to housing consumption is first proposed, followed by case studies of five typical cities, i.e. Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, Changzhou and Chongqing using relevant data in 2006, with an analysis of the contribution degree and impact factors. The paper suggests that the interaction mechanism between the HPF policies, housing price and household income may be set up, the interest rate difference between HPF and commercial loans can be increased and the upper and lower bound of monthly HPF contribution should be regulated.