电力系统连锁性发展事件的概率评估与预防控制

电力系统偶然事件安全性评估的目的是为了提高系统安全性,但当偶然事件本身具有随机性时,如何恰当选择偶然事件会存在很多困难,如果选得过于冒进往往会导致预防控制费用过高,如果选得过于保守又可能会造成大面积停电事故的发生。文中应用证据理论对电力系统连锁发展复杂偶然事件的概率进行评估,并在此基础上对用户期望停电费用和预防控制的功率限值费用进行了分析,给出了优化选择预防控制的方法。所提出的方法不仅可以减少不必要的预防控制费用支出,还可以减少发生大面积停电事故的风险,提高系统运行的安全性。算例讨论了它的有效性。

Cascading Events Assessment and Preventive Control of Electric Power System

In power system operation, contingency analysis is made to provide sufficient security. However it does not analyze the uncertainty related to the selection of interruption conditions, and it is usually difficult for the operators to properly select the disaster scenarios. Consequently, such preventive control often leads to unnecessary high restriction cost, and it could even put the system in an insecure condition, which may cause serious blackout. This paper presents a novel evidential theory based approach to the probabilistic assessment of power system cascading events. The paper also presents a method aiming at minimization of total operating costs defined as the sum of expected interruption costs and restriction costs. The method can be significantly saving in unnecessary operation expenses and increase safety in the sense of minimal risk of system cascading failure. Experiments have been conducted to test and validate the proposed method.