基于多因素融合的电网高风险设备评估方法

最大可能地降低设备风险是防止电力系统发生事故的有效途径。从分析设备风险的影响因素的角度出发，综合设备重要度和设备隐患对设备风险的影响，定义了设备风险影响度，并提出了设备重要度指标和设备隐患指标，建立了设备风险影响度计算指标体系。在该体系的基础上，利用设备相对重要度矩阵和设备相对隐患矩阵构建设备风险影响度计算模型以获取设备的风险影响度，以辨识出对电网可靠、稳定和安全运行具有巨大影响的高风险设备，从而有针对性地对高风险设备进行重点关注，对降低电力系统的总体风险水平具有重要意义。最后，将该方法应用于山西晋城220 kV东沟变电站中主要设备的风险影响度计算。仿真结果验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性，为进一步挖掘高风险设备提供了数据支撑。

Evaluation method of high risk equipment in power grid based on multiple factor fusion

The maximum reduction of equipment risk is an effective way to prevent power grid accident. From the perspective of multiple factor analysis of equipment risk, considering impact of equipment importance and equipment hidden danger on equipment risk, equipment risk influence degree is defined, equipment importance indicators and equipment hidden danger indicators are proposed, and the index system of calculating equipment risk influence degree is established. On the basis of this system, the equipment relative importance matrix and equipment relative hidden danger are used to establish the calculation model of equipment risk influence degree. The risk influence degree of each equipment is obtained to identify high risk equipment that has an important impact on reliable, stable and safe operation of power grid. Therefore, it is of great significance to focus on the high risk equipment to reduce the overall risk level of power system. Finally, the method is applied to calculate risk influence degree of equipment in 220 kV Donggou substation in Jincheng. Simulation results verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method, which provides data support for mining high risk equipment. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51507063) and Science and Tehnology Project of Headquarters of State Grid Corporation of China (No. B34681150152).