我国油气中长期发展趋势与战略选择

以超长期趋势预测为基础,通过对2030—2050年我国石油天然气供需形势的系统分析,提出有效应对能源安全挑战的战略措施和建议。研究结果表明,我国石油需求将长期处于增长态势,而石油产量将保持基本稳定,供需缺口不断加大,为此应在努力控制需求的同时积极稳妥地发展石油替代,力争石油对外依存度不超过60%;天然气作为清洁、优质的化石能源,对改善我国能源结构、推动低碳经济发展具有重要作用,应进一步采取积极有效措施,加快国内天然气资源的勘探开发,加大国外天然气资源的引进利用,力争2030—2050年天然气在我国一次能源结构中的比例升至10%以上。在此基础上,提出了我国油气中长期发展战略与技术路线以及6项战略措施建议。

Trend and strategic choice of oil & gas mid long term development in our country

Based on the super-long term forecast,by analyzing the supply and demand situation of oil & gas for our country in 2030—2050,some strategic measures and advice on energy security challenge were put forward.The results showed that in a long period,our national demand for petroleum will be at strong growth,but the petroleum production will keep stable.Therefore,the gap between supply and demand is constantly increasing.In order to confine the dependency of domestic petroleum consumption on import at 60 %,it is necessary to control energy demand and develop reliable petroleum substitution at the same time.As a clean and fine fossil fuel,natural gas is of great significance to change our national energy structure and promote a low-carbon economy,so it is urgent to take effective measures to quicken domestic natural gas exploration and import as much natural gas resource as possible from oversea market,and to realize the goal that the proportion of natural gas can reach more than 10 % in our national primary energy structure in 2030—2050.According to the results,the sustainable strategy and technical options for oil & gas mid-long term development in our country were also proposed,and suggestions on strategic measures were given.