旅游公交环线智能化及改善的效果分析

依据车辆定位和远程数据传输技术，开发了定量分析智能旅游巴士环线对旅游景点间交通手段选择影响方法．该方法利用极大似然效用理论计算各种交通手段被选择的概率，并应用AHP量化了似然效用函数中游客的主观意识，论述了各层次中权重的计算方法以及与交通手段似然效用的关系．利用问卷调查得到的数据，计算出了智能旅游公交环线的建设对出租车的影响比较小，而对普通公交车的影响大，使景点间普通公交车的利用率由原来的71％降到44％．

Intelligence of dalian's tourist bus route and its effects on improvement of transit services between tourist spots

From the analyses of existing situations and questionnaire survey, the necessity and feasibility of establishing intelligent tourist loop bus system in Dalian are discussed in datail, and a structural frame and spatial distribution is designed for it, by which, real time information exchange and release among control center, tourist spots, bus stops and bus vehicles are realized. A method is developed using the random utility theory to estimate the effect of the system on the mode split of traffic between tourist spots in the city. The consciousness of the travelers is quantified in the utility function by AHP ( Analytical Hierarchy Process). Questionnaires are designed as required by AHP to explain how to calculate the weights in AHP and their relationships with the u-tility function. The data obtained from questionnaire survey show that the intelligent tourist loop bus system in Dalian has little effect on taxiservice, but reduces bus service from 71% to 44%.