Testing for nonlinearity in solar radiation time series by a fast surrogate data test method |
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| Authors: | Min Gan Yun-zhi Huang Ming Ding Xue-ping Dong Jiang-bei Peng |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan;2. International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research (WPI-I2CNER), Fukuoka, Japan;3. Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Fukuoka University, Fukuoka, Japan;4. Graduate School of Fukuoka University, Fukuoka, Japan;5. Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL, United States;6. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Fukuoka University, Fukuoka, Japan;1. Hasselt University, Institute for Materials Research (IMO-IMOMEC), Design & Synthesis of Organic Semiconductors (DSOS), Agoralaan 1 – Building D, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium;3. IMEC, IMOMEC Ass. Lab., Universitaire Campus – Wetenschapspark 1, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium;4. Physical Chemistry and Polymer Science (FYSC), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Pleinlaan 2, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium;1. State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;2. School for Engineering of Matter, Transport & Energy, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-6106, USA |
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| Abstract: | Recently, various time series models have been proposed to predict solar radiation, for instance the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model and neural networks. Before building a model for the data, however, it is advisable to check whether the data suggest this type of modeling. More specifically, a nonlinearity test is suggested before further analysis with the linear or nonlinear tools are to be applied. In this paper, we test the presence of nonlinearity in the solar radiation time series by the method of surrogate data. The surrogate test method used in this paper is based on evaluation of the differences between the original time series and the linear model that best approximates it. Nonlinearity tests are carried out for four data sets including 5-min, hourly, daily and monthly global solar radiation time series from the UO (University of Oregon) Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory. The test statistics show that the 5-min, hourly, daily global solar radiation time series exhibit apparently nonlinearity while the monthly time series does not. |
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