贝叶斯网络分析在管道腐蚀失效概率计算中的运用

对某天然气管道腐蚀因素进行分析，确定了腐蚀失效的23个因素。根据贝叶斯网络分析原理，建立简单的贝叶斯模型，每个失效因素为一个贝叶斯网络子结点，管线腐蚀失效为贝叶斯网络根结点，通过各子节点间的条件概率关系，求子节点发生的概率，分析子结点与根结点之间的概率统计关系，利用条件独立性，简化概率分布，最后得出管道腐蚀失效概率。结果表明：利用贝叶斯网络法评价天然气管道腐蚀，结果可以指导天然气管道系统的维护和维修，降低管道运行的风险。

Application of Bayes Net Analysis in Calculation of Corrosion Failure Probability

The analysis of corrosion occurred in one natural gas pipeline was carried out so that 23 factors relevant to corrosion failure were determined. Based on Bayes net analytical principle, every failure factor is a sub - node in Bayes net, and the corrosion failure of the pipeline is the root node in the net. With the probabilistic relationship between each sub - node, the occurrence probability of the sub - node can be determined. The probabilistic statistical relation among sub - nodes was analyzed, and the probabilistic distribution was simplified by using the property of conditional independence, the corrosion failure probability of the pipeline was, then, can be finally obtained. It has been shown that with the use of Bayes net to access corroded natural gas pipeline, the result can be utilized to guide the maintenance of gas pipeline, so that the risk in the performance of the pipeline can be decreased.