电网大停电自组织临界性的概率统计分析法

针对复杂电力系统的自组织临界性特点，基于概率统计基本理论，利用极值分布的最大吸引场定理提出一种分析电网连锁故障大停电事故的有效方法。首先给出了衡量连锁故障大停电事故规模的指标及其选择依据和计算方法；然后通过定义连锁故障的分布函数计算出连锁故障发生的规模和概率。文章指出电网连锁大停电事故的发生与所研究的时间范围和故障规模有关，因此可以根据研究年限和故障规模来预测连锁故障发生的频率。对华北电网连锁故障大停电事故的历史数据进行了分析计算，结果表明了本文方法的有效性。

Probabilistic Statistical Analysis on Self-Organized Criticality of Power Grid Blackouts

According to the self-organized criticality of complex power system,based on the theory of statistics and probability,an effective method to determine the blackouts caused by power grid cascading failures is proposed by using the theorem of maximum attraction field of extreme value distribution.Firstly,the index to measure the scale of blackout caused by cascading failures,the basis for the selection of the index and calculation method are given;then by means of defining the distribution function of cascading failures,the scale and occurrence probability of cascading failures are calculated.The authors point out that the occurrence of blackout caused by power grid cascading failures is related to the time range and blackout scale to be researched,thus,the occurrence probability of blackout caused by cascading failures can be forecasted by the number of years to be researched and blackout scale.The historical data of blackout caused by cascading failures in North China power grid is analyzed and calculated,and the results indicate that the proposed method is effective.