继电器触点接触电阻的威布尔分布及时间序列接触失效预测模型

继电器的接触失效是各种失效模式的综合反映,而继电器接触电阻是能够反映其接触性能的重要电气参数,根据继电器接触电阻的序列值进行在线接触失效预测,能有效提高在接触失效发生前采取措施的概率。对继电器触点接触电阻测量值序列进行了时序分析和统计分析。融合先验威布尔分布的模型参数,建立接触电阻的时间序列组合预测模型,对接触电阻变化趋势进行预测。试验结果表明上述方法能对接触失效作出有效预判。

Weibull Distribution and Series Analysis Prediction Model on Contact Resistance of Contacts of Relay

Contact failure of the relay is a comprehensive reflection of the various modes of failure,and the contact resistance of relays is an important electrical parameter reflecting the contact performance. The online contact failure prediction based on the sequence of contact resistance of relays,can improve the probability of taking measures effectively before the contact failure occurs. The time series analysis and statistical analysis were carried out to the sequence of contact resistance of relays. The time-series forecasting model of contact resistance with priori model parameter of Weibull distribution was established,and the trend of contact resistance was predicted. The results of the experiments show that this method can make an effective anticipation of contact failure.