| 应用变系数改进灰色GM(1,1)模型预测油田产量 |
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| 引用本文： | 王博,宋新民,杨兆平,唐后军.应用变系数改进灰色GM(1,1)模型预测油田产量[J].新疆石油地质,2010,31(5):527-529. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王博 宋新民 杨兆平 唐后军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国石油 勘探开发研究院,北京 100083;2.中国石油 勘探开发研究院 西北分院,兰州 730020;3.中国石油 吐哈油田分公司 勘探开发研究院,新疆 哈密 839009 |
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| 摘 要： | 产量递减预测模型是油气藏工程研究中的一种重要手段。应用灰色预测建模理论,提出了一种变系数GM(1,1)模型及其参数估计的方法。变系数GM(1,1)模型结合原始数据系列的变换,改进了灰色预测模型。通过对油田产量预测的实例计算表明,改进的灰色预测模型的预测精度明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 变系数 灰色模型 油田 产量预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-02-24 |
Prediction of Oilfield Production with Variable Coefficient Modified GM(1,1)Model |
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| WANG Bo,SONG Xin-min,YANG Zhao-ping,TANG Hou-jun.Prediction of Oilfield Production with Variable Coefficient Modified GM(1,1)Model[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2010,31(5):527-529. |
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| Authors: | WANG Bo SONG Xin-min YANG Zhao-ping TANG Hou-jun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China;2. Northwest Branch, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China;3. Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Tuha Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Hami, Xinjiang 839009, China |
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| Abstract: | Prediction model for production decline is an important method for oil-gas reservoir engineering research. In this paper, a variable coefficient GM (1,1) model and parameter estimation method are developed on the basis of gray forecast model theory. The variable coefficient GM (1,1) model and original data transformation modify the gray model. Case study indicates that the improved gray forecast model is of higher accuracy for prediction of oilfield production. |
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| Keywords: | oil field coefficient gray model production forecast prediction |
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