An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics,Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty |
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| Authors: | Binglong Wang Yanpeng Cai Xin’An Yin Qian Tan Yan Hao |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China;2.Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities,University of Regina,Regina,Canada;3.Beijing Engineering Research Center for Watershed Environmental Restoration & Integrated Ecological Regulation, School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China;4.College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing,China |
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| Abstract: | An integrated approach of system dynamics (SD), orthogonal experimental design (OED) and inexact optimization modeling was proposed for water resources management under uncertainty. The developed method adopted a combination of SD and OED to identify key scenarios within multiple factors, through which interval solutions for water demands could be obtained as input data for consequential optimization modeling. Also, optimal schemes could be obtained in the combination of inexact two-stage stochastic programming and credibility constrained programming. The developed method was applied to a real-world case study for supporting allocation of multiple-source water resources to multiple users in Dalian city within a multi-year context. The results indicated that a lower credibility-satisfaction level would generate higher allocation efficiency, a higher system benefit and a lower system violation risk. The developed model could successfully reflect and address the variety of uncertainties through provision of credibility levels, which corresponds to the decision makers’ preference regarding the tradeoffs between system benefits and violation risks. |
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