| 基于概率论与可信性理论的不确定性设计方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓斌,王林,金振中.基于概率论与可信性理论的不确定性设计方法[J].弹箭与制导学报,2009,29(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓斌 王林 金振中 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 92493部队博士后科研工作站,辽宁葫芦岛,125000;92941部队,辽宁葫芦岛,125000
2. 92941部队,辽宁葫芦岛,125000 |
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| 摘 要： | 综合应用概率论和可信性理论对随机和可认知混合不确定性参数进行建模,提出了基于概率论和可信性理论的不确定性设计方法.以固体火箭发动机燃烧室壳体不确定性设计为算例,验证了该不确定性设计方法的可行性.实际工程应用中,采用近似方法生成近似模型,将计算复杂的系统响应模型替换为计算简单的近似模型,可大大提高该方法的效率.
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性设计 概率论 可信性理论 固体火箭发动机 |
Uncertainty Design Method Using Probability Theory and Credibility Theory |
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| LI Xiaobin,WANG Lin,JIN Zhenzhong.Uncertainty Design Method Using Probability Theory and Credibility Theory[J].Journal of Projectiles Rockets Missiles and Guidance,2009,29(6). |
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| Authors: | LI Xiaobin WANG Lin JIN Zhenzhong |
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| Affiliation: | LI Xiaobin1,2,WANG Lin2,JIN Zhenzhong2 (1 Post-doctoral Research Station of No.92493 Unit,Liaoning Huludao 125000,China,2 No. 92941 Unit,China) |
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| Abstract: | The method of the uncertainty design using probability theory and credibility theory have been presented,which provides us with a useful modeling tool for random and epistemic parameter uncertainty. The feasibility of this method has been validated by the solid rocket motor case uncertainty design. In engineering applications,the efficiency of the presented method can be improved by replacing computation complicated system response model with computation simple approximate model which constructed by approxi... |
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| Keywords: | uncertainty design probability theory credibility theory solid rocket motor |
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