Modeling the growth boundary of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat cooked meat products as a function of the product salt, moisture, potassium lactate, and sodium diacetate concentrations

A central composite response surface design was used to determine the time to growth of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of four continuous variables: added sodium chloride (0.8 to 3.6%), sodium diacetate (0 to 0.2%), potassium lactate syrup (60% [wt/wt]; 0.25 to 9.25%), and finished-product moisture (45.5 to 83.5%) in ready-to-eat cured meat products. The design was repeated for ready-to-eat uncured meat products giving a fifth categorical variable for cure status. Products were stored at 4 degrees C. The results were modeled using a generalized regression approach. All five main effects, six two-factor interactions, and two quadratic terms were statistically significant. The model was used to show the boundary between growth and no-growth conditions at 4 degrees C using contour plots of time to growth. It was validated using independent challenge studies of cured and uncured products. Generally, the model predicted well, particularly for cured products, where it will be useful for establishing conditions that prevent the growth of L. monocytogenes. For uncured products, there was good agreement overall between predicted and observed times to growth, but the model is less thoroughly validated than for cured products. The model should initially only be used for screening of formulations likely to prevent growth of Listeria monocytogenes in uncured products, with recommendations subject to confirmation by challenge studies.