基于房间空调器使用率与设置温度监控数据的能耗预测模型

住宅建筑中空调能耗极大程度上受到人员行为的影响,对空调能耗进行预测的关键在于准确预测人如何调节空调。虽然ASHRAE以及其他一些导则建议了人员在室时刻表用于建筑能耗评估,但人员使用空调的行为存在地区差异并随时间变化。基于实时监测获得的2016-06-01-2016-08-31的大量数据,统计分析夏季卧室与客厅房间空调器能耗的人员行为因素,主要包括房间空调器的设定温度、空调使用率等。基于统计分析,探究了空调使用率与室外日平均温度的关系,结果表明,两者呈"L型曲线"关系,说明该人群对空调依赖较高,当室外温度处于较低水平时,仍有部分居民使用空调。基于空调使用率建立优化的能耗模拟模型,基于设置温度、室外日平均温度、运行时长等建立能耗预测模型。验证结果表明,基于使用率模式为"L型曲线"的能耗模拟模型以及结合设置温度等的能耗预测模型比传统空调使用模式的模拟结果更接近实测值。

Prediction model of energy consumption based on the actual monitoring data of room air conditioner usage rate and setting temperature

The energy consumption of air conditioning in residential buildings is determined mainly by the occupants. The key to predict the energy consumption of room air conditioning is to understand how occupants control their room air conditioners. Although the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers recommends a uniform occupancy schedule, occupants'' behavior patterns vary by region and time. Based on actual monitoring data obtained during 2016-06-01-2016-08-31, factors affecting the energy consumption of the room air conditioner such as the temperature setting and the daily/hourly usage rate were statistically analyzed, as well as the behavioral pattern of air conditioning usage in relation to the daily mean outdoor temperature. The result showed that occupants have a low tolerance to heat indoors and are likely to use the air conditioner even when the outdoor temperature is low. Then the results of the optimized energy consumption simulation model based on the traditional simulation model and the energy consumption prediction model were compared with the measured energy consumption. The results of the optimized energy consumption simulation model that adopted the daily usage rate and the energy consumption prediction model based on the temperature setting of the air conditioner, the outdoor daily mean temperature, and the length of daily operating time was closer to the measured value than the traditional energy consumption simulation model.