Crime specialization, seriousness progression, and Markov chains.

Sequences of violent and nonviolent offenses by 300 male offenders (mean age 26.47 yrs) were subjected to log-linear analyses of the stabilities and magnitudes of their transition probabilities (TPs). Results show that all patterns resembled a Markov process wherein the TPs were stable. The relative magnitude of these TPs indicated that there was specialization in nonviolent offenses and little tendency toward consistently violent behavior. Seriousness progression from nonviolent to violent misconduct was infrequent; however, there was substantial retrogression from violent to nonviolent offenses. (11 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)